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Election posters in Saxony-Anhalt
Photo: Florian Gaertner / photothek.de / imago images / photothek
There was one thing that didn't exist in this election campaign: a real TV duel.
It would have put Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff in an extremely difficult situation.
In this case, his counterpart would have been Oliver Kirchner, the top candidate of the AfD.
A detailed television dispute between a CDU head of government and someone from the far right?
Unimaginable so far.
A few days ago, the top candidates from all major parties met for a discussion at the MDR.
The situation remains explosive in Saxony-Anhalt: While the CDU is fighting with the Greens for the Chancellery in the federal government, the AfD is its fiercest competitor for first place in the eastern part of the country.
What does this mean for the debates in the country?
Does the laboriously held together Kenya coalition of the Union, SPD and Greens still have a future?
And what are the consequences of the election for the candidate race for the Chancellery?
The starting position: five years of emergency coalition
When the country leaders of the CDU, SPD and Greens signed their coalition agreement in Magdeburg on April 24, 2016, they did so for one reason: They had to keep the AfD out of power.
The right-wing populists had won 24.3 percent of the vote in the last state election - and thus, to a certain extent, forced the government to form an alliance of convenience.
The so-called Kenya coalition was born out of necessity.
In the years that followed, the alliance was repeatedly faced with a breakdown.
For example, when in 2020 a number of CDU MPs wanted to make common cause with the AfD in the dispute over radio fees.
After a power-political show of strength, Prime Minister Haseloff prevailed, his Crown Prince and Interior Minister Holger Stahlknecht had to leave.
It is true that the alliance achieved political successes.
But one thing is clear: to this day, there can be no talk of a desired coalition.
The election campaign: coal, school, east
Saxony-Anhalt has to struggle with typical problems in rural areas: There is a shortage of teachers - in hardly any other federal state the situation is so bad.
There is also a lack of doctors, hundreds of vacancies among family doctors alone.
Structural change also plays a role in the election campaign: after all, Saxony-Anhalt's exit from coal poses major challenges.
The left in particular also emphasized the injustices between East and West.
It could have been a pretty normal election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt - if it weren't for the confused balance of power.
The surveys: Color games in Magdeburg
The latest polls see the CDU in the lead, but the AfD is within striking distance.
The pollsters from Civey saw the AfD on Thursday at 28 percent, almost level with the Union.
Far right at the front in a federal state?
Has never existed since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany.
The stronger the AfD, the more complicated the formation of a coalition is likely to be again this time.
Several alliances seem possible so far.
If the liberals are strong enough, it could be enough for a "German coalition" of CDU, SPD and FDP.
From the conservatives' point of view, that would be quite attractive: in this way, the Greens, who are not loved in their ranks, could be got rid of.
A Jamaican alliance with the Union, FDP and the Greens cannot be completely ruled out.
And then there is the matter of the minority government.
The CDU would allow itself to be tolerated by the AfD in this scenario.
In fact, parts of the state parliament union are already considered well-wired with the right-wing populists.
However, such a collaboration would be a real breaking taboo.
It would probably cost a man who has so far been doing his best against the right-wing activities of his own people: Prime Minister Haseloff.
The signal: Laschet's worries
In the federal CDU, the fear of bankruptcy in the state elections is great.
If the AfD is in the lead in the end, the dispute over the profile of the Union will begin again, as many Christian Democrats are sure of.
The conservative wing should then push for the CDU to move further to the right in order to counter the AfD.
Such a debate would of course be poison for the election campaign of CDU leader Armin Laschet.
After all, after the nerve-wracking power struggles for party leadership and the candidacy for chancellor, the mood in the Union has only just cooled down a little.
But the other parties are also looking forward to the outcome in Saxony-Anhalt with excitement.
The Greens, for example, have traditionally struggled in the east.
A significant increase in votes could give the currently ailing campaign in the federal government new momentum.
The FDP is also hoping for this, while the state SPD wants to prevent the next bad news for the Social Democrats.
The left is fighting against a very fundamental problem.
The comrades once celebrated election results of well over 20 percent in Saxony-Anhalt.
They are currently in the double-digit range in the surveys.
The Left was once called the Eastern Party.
There is not much left of the status, at least in Saxony-Anhalt.
