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These signs suggest that the United States is overcoming the pandemic

2021-06-09T07:24:52.222Z


New cases, hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 are in decline in the United States, but there are still reasons for concern about the pandemic.


Seven data that point to the end of the pandemic in the United States.

(CNN) -

First, the good news: Covid-19 cases have decreased in the United States.

Hospitalizations are decreasing.

And new deaths have dropped dramatically as more Americans get vaccinated.


Now for the bad news: Most Americans are still not fully vaccinated, which threatens to have short-term consequences for themselves and long-term consequences for the country.

“We are definitely heading in the right direction.

And I think if we can fully vaccinate the American people in the summer, then I think we can see a really high quality of life, "said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

But unvaccinated Americans remain vulnerable to COVID-19, long-term complications, and large medical bills.

"This is not the time to congratulate ourselves on it," Hotez told CNN last week.

Here's how the United States is making great progress in this pandemic, and why Americans shouldn't have a false sense of security:

The number of high transmission counties decreases

Only 2.4% of the US population, about 8 million people, live in a county considered "high" transmission of the coronavirus, according to a CNN analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. of the USA (CDC).

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This is a big improvement over the previous two weeks, when about four times as many people, more than 9% of the US population, lived in a county considered "high" transmission.

CDC considers a county to have "high" transmission if there have been 100 or more COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.

Most Americans live in a county that is still considered to have "substantial" transmission (13% of the population) or "moderate" transmission (about 75% of the population).

Community transmission has decreased in the US.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for elementary and secondary schools include four categories to help administrators make decisions.

The categories are based on county-level data on the number of new cases per 100,000 people and the test positivity rate for the past seven days.

Note: Data reported through June 6, 2021.


Source: CDC


Chart: Curt Merrill, CNN

The recent declines are good news.

But they come after a devastating increase earlier this year.

And "there is still a considerable amount of transmission in the country," Hotez said.

“We are more or less where we were last year at this time.

And then you remember what happened.

We lowered our guard and there was that massive increase in the southern states that produced that second wave, ”said Hotez.

"We have vaccination rates in the southern states that are literally half of those in the north," he said.

“So I think there is a vulnerability in the southern states that could go up to a fifth rise in the summer.

It may not be so serious because some people are vaccinated and others have been infected and recovered and are therefore partially immune.

But there is still a lot of vulnerability in the country.

New cases of covid-19 decrease

For the first time since March 2020, the United States recorded a seven-day average of fewer than 20,000 new cases a day on May 31, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Coronavirus transmission in the US

The gray bars represent the number of new cases reported each day.

The dashed red line shows the seven-day moving average.


Updated on: June 8, 2021 3:57 am ET


Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for


Graphic

Systems Science and Engineering

: Curt Merrill, CNN

And new daily cases are expected to continue to decline this month, according to an aggregate forecast from the CDC.

The set of forecasts combines projection models from universities and research groups throughout the country.

"This week's national set predicts that the number of new reported covid-19 cases will likely decline over the next 4 weeks, with 25,000 to 162,000 new cases likely reported in the week ending June 26," the CDC said. Wednesday.

Pediatric cases decrease

About 16,281 new cases of covid-19 were reported in children during the week ending June 3, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP).

"This marks the lowest number of new weekly cases reported in the past year, since June 2020," the AAP said.

But children account for a larger share of new COVID-19 cases.

While adults and children 12 and older can be vaccinated, children under 12 are not yet eligible.

"Since the pandemic began, children accounted for 14.1% of the total accumulated cases," said the AAP.

"In the week ending June 3, children accounted for 17.2% of new reported weekly COVID-19 cases."

Although children are much less likely to die from coronavirus than older adults, at least 309 children have died in the United States from COVID-19, according to the CDC.

Some young people suffer from persistent symptoms of Covid-19 or Childhood Multisystemic Inflammatory Syndrome (MIS-C), a rare but potentially serious condition that can appear in children weeks after a coronavirus infection.

And a recent spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations among teens ages 12 to 17 reinforces the importance of vaccination or mask use for the unvaccinated, according to a study published Friday in

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly.

CDC

Report

.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky urged parents to vaccinate their teenage children.

"In the month leading up to Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine recommendations for adolescents and ages 12 and older, the CDC saw troubling data regarding adolescent covid-19 hospitalizations," Walensky said at a meeting. briefing on the coronavirus at the White House on Thursday.

Walensky said the data should "redouble our motivation for our teens and young adults to get vaccinated."

The pediatrician group says it is important that unvaccinated children older than 2 years continue to wear masks in public places.

"And because unvaccinated children can continue to transmit the virus to others, the use of masks also protects others," wrote Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, chair of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases, on the website HealthyChildren.org of the AAP.

Doctors say vaccinating children once they are eligible will help slow the spread of the coronavirus and reduce the chances of contracting dangerous new variants or that may evade the protection of the vaccine.

“Anything that cuts the transmission will help reduce the appearance of new variants.

So definitely vaccination and mask use, ”Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN.

"I really think it depends a lot on how well we can convince people to get vaccinated and how well we get vaccines to children once they are approved."

An expert tells you why children should be vaccinated against covid-19 2:24

Daily deaths from covid-19 decrease

In the past week, COVID-19 has killed an average of more than 400 Americans a day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Although this figure is still high, it represents a significant improvement over recent months.

Deaths from covid-19 in the US over time

The gray bars represent the number of new deaths recorded each day.

The dashed orange line shows the seven-day moving average.

The seven-day average is calculated by averaging the current day with the figures for the previous six days.

Using the mean reduces the effects of data drops and spikes caused by delays in reporting or changes in data collection.


Last Updated: June 8, 2021 at 3:57 am ET


Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering


Graphic: Curt Merrill, CNN

Wednesday's global forecast from the CDC foresees a total of 601,000 to 614,000 American lives lost to COVID-19 by June 26.

His previous forecast, published on May 26, called for a total of 606,000 deaths from covid-19 in the US by June 19.

Covid-19 hospitalizations are expected to continue to improve

"The number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths is decreasing because millions of people have stepped forward to receive the COVID-19 vaccine," Walensky said on May 25.

Hospitalizations "will likely decline over the next 4 weeks, with 700 to 3,700 new hospital admissions for COVID-19 confirmed on June 28, 2021," according to a joint CDC forecast released Wednesday.

Scholarships, vacations and millionaire prizes could incentivize vaccination

Businesses and states are offering great vaccination incentives, including opportunities to win four-year college scholarships, tropical vacations, free beer and a million dollars, to encourage more Americans to help end this pandemic. .

Kroger is giving away five million dollar payments and 50 chances to win free food for one year to those who get vaccinated.

West Virginia residents who get vaccinated have a chance to win trucks, hunting rifles, four-year scholarships and a million dollar prize.

  • This is the reason why in the United States companies and states offer incentives for those who get vaccinated against covid-19.

CVS is giving away 1,000 prizes to people who get vaccinated at its pharmacies, including free cruises, tropical vacations, a VIP trip to Super Bowl LVI, date night gift cards, and $ 5,000 cash prizes for family meetings.

Ohio is giving away five million-dollar prizes to adults and five full college scholarships to children ages 12 to 17 who get vaccinated.

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine told CNN that the program has led to a 94% increase in vaccinations among teens ages 16 and 17.

If 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4, the Budweiser Anheuser-Busch brewery will "pay for the next round of beer, seltzer, soft drink, or other AB brand product." the company said.

(As of Monday, 63.7% of adults in the US had received at least one dose of the vaccine.)

Another incentive for vaccination has been less tangible: the ability to not wear a mask safely and to stop distancing yourself in most places.

Another incentive for vaccination has been less tangible: the ability to not wear a mask safely and to stop distancing yourself in most places.

Shortly after Walensky said that fully vaccinated people don't need to wear masks in most places, interest in COVID-19 vaccines soared on May 13.

  • Interest in vaccines spiked after the CDC announced a new mask guide

"The surge [in traffic] on vaccines.gov just then tells us that the relaxation of certain restrictions influenced some people's decision to get vaccinated," VaccineFinder co-founder John Brownstein told CNN in May.

VaccineFinder is the engine for vaccines.gov, where people can find nearby vaccination centers.

Actual vaccinations, and not just website visits, also increased on May 13 after nearly a month of decline, according to CDC data.

But since then, the number of new fully vaccinated people has decreased each week, according to the data.

Follow-up of daily vaccinations in the US

The gray bars represent the number of people with just completed vaccines who are registered each day.

The dashed red line shows the seven-day moving average.

Note: Figures above may change as historical data is released to CDC.


Last Updated: June 8, 2021 at 5:31 am ET


Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention


Chart: Curt Merrill, CNN

It's unclear when, or even if, the United States will achieve herd immunity.

As of Monday, only 42% of Americans were fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.

"When you have highly (communicable) variants like variant B.1.1.7, what that means is that we are going to have to reach 75%, 80% of the entire American population," Hotez said.

"That basically means that all adults and all adolescents" should be vaccinated, he said.

Even those who have already had the coronavirus should get vaccinated because research shows that immunity gained through vaccination is better than that obtained through previous infection, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“We have to get vaccinated because vaccines are very effective.

They are better than the traditional response from natural infection, ”Fauci said at a coronavirus briefing at the White House last month.

Laboratory research shows that people who had COVID-19 and received two doses of an mRNA vaccine "had interesting and increased protection against variants considered of concern," Fauci said.

Hotez agreed that vaccination, not infections, is the way to end this pandemic.

"Yes, I think we can end this epidemic in the United States through vaccination," Hotez said.

But it is a very high bar.

And all adults, all adolescents have to be vaccinated.

Vaccinated Americans return to normal life

Many states lifted mask-wearing orders after the CDC said that most fully vaccinated people don't need to mask in most places.

  • Do you have to stop using the mask?

    Dr. Leana Wen explains

More businesses are beginning to fully reopen as more people get vaccinated.

And Memorial Day marked the first major holiday of the pandemic in which fully vaccinated people were able to enjoy close gatherings without masks.

But it's unclear how many unvaccinated Americans let their guard down, and if that could undo some of the recent advances.

Memorial Day weekend "was the first big stress test," CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen said shortly after the holiday.

“We have lifted the restrictions en masse, people lead their normal lives.

We know that in the past, after the big parties and an increase in travel, we have had a substantial spike in the rate of infections, "he said.

The doctor said that it will be necessary to wait about two weeks to see if the events of Memorial Day cause an increase in new cases of covid-19.

But Americans shouldn't have a false sense of security.

Covid-19 numbers were expected to decline in the summer, and could rise again this winter if not enough people are vaccinated soon, Murray and Wen said.

“One of the concerns that… I have mentioned before is that maybe the summer is going to be great, which is something to celebrate without a doubt.

But I also think that removes the urgency for people to get vaccinated.

People may think, 'Well, I was going to do it.

But now I don't think it's that important, '"Wen said.

  • Some children may have to wear masks to school this fall if communities don't get vaccinated, Fauci warns

We could be fine during the summer.

But when fall comes, we could have another revival.

So all of this means that we are certainly in a much better place than before.

But we are not free from danger, far from it.

- CNN's Deidre McPhillips, Elizabeth Cohen, Michael Nedelman and Naomi Thomas contributed to this report.

Covid-19

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-06-09

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