They have no predictive value, and only serve to give a photo at time T of the voters' voting intentions.
But contrary to what some of them assure, all the main candidates have their eyes riveted on it.
The polls, since we are talking about them, abound as the first round of regional elections approaches, on June 20.
A fairly significant breakthrough by the National Rally emerges in certain territories, but the second round often promises to be uncertain.
Here is, region by region, what the most recent opinion surveys give, in particular the one carried out by Ipsos Sopra / Steria for France Télévisions and Radio France and published on Wednesday 9 June.
Île-de-France: Ultra-favorite Pécresse
The suspense seems thin.
Outgoing president Valérie Pécresse (Free, Republicans and UDI) would even be re-elected regardless of the scenario of the second round, according to this Ipsos Sopra / Steria poll.
She would lead the first round with 34% of the voting intentions, followed by Jordan Bardella (RN, 18%) and three left-wing candidates: Julien Bayou (EELV-Génération. S, 12%), Clémentine Autin (LFI-PCF , 10%) and Audrey Pulvar (PS, 10%).
The LREM candidate Laurent Saint-Martin would insert himself with 11% of the votes.
These scores are close to those put forward in a previous Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, published at the end of May.
Main difference, which is not likely to change the situation: Laurent Saint-Martin was then evaluated at 15%.
In Paca, the RN surprise?
The same Ipsos Sopra / Steria poll places candidate RN Thierry Mariani largely in the lead in voting intentions in the first round in Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur, with 41% of the vote. Various surveys carried out in March and April gave it closer to 30%. The former UMP deputy is ahead of the LR candidate Renaud Muselier (34%) and his victory would be a political explosion in this land marked far to the right. With 15% of the voting intentions in the first round, the socialist candidate Jean-Laurent
Félizia
struggles to win.
The outgoing elected Renaud Muselier, who eventually reached an agreement with LREM and placed majority candidates on his list, risks paying for these political procrastination at the ballot box.
But he can constantly reassure himself that he remains the winner in the second round "in all cases".
Bertrand plays his candidacy for 2022 in Hauts-de-France
He said it over and over: if he is beaten in his re-election, Xavier Bertrand will draw a line on his intention to run for the Elysee in a year.
"If I lose, my political life will be over," he even indicated on France Info on April 2.
If he remains the favorite, the game seems far from won.
The outgoing president of the region is given the lead in the first round ahead of the RN but only by a very short head (34% versus 32%), according to an Ifop-Fiducial survey for
Le Figaro
and LCI, published this Tuesday.
If the list led by Secretary of State Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM, 10%) and that of Karima Delli (EELV, 20%) are maintained, Xavier Bertrand would be threatened to bow in the second round.
Be careful, however, because it is particularly difficult to anticipate the transfer of votes between the two laps.
Bourgogne Franche-Comté: Odoul in the lead
Despite the controversies over his little sentence about the suicide of farmers and the accusations of fictitious employment that target him, the candidate of RN Julien Odoul remains widely in the lead (28% of the vote according to the Ipsos Sopra Steria poll).
Outgoing president Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) would be at 21% but she would win in the event of a quadrangular in the second round, according to this study.
Another Ifop poll, commissioned by candidate LR Gilles Platret, gives Julien Odoul the winner in the end.
But you have to be particularly careful with this kind of study initiated by one of the stakeholders.
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In the Grand-Est, the Jacobelli surprise?
Neck to neck, Jean Rottner (LR) and his opponent National Rally Laurent Jacobelli would obtain, respectively, 27% and 25% of the vote, according to Ipsos / Sopra Steria.
In the hypothesis of a quadrangular (pollsters struggle to anticipate alliances and list mergers), he would obtain 32% of the votes in front of the outgoing president, who would collect 29%.
Auvergne - Rhône-Alpes: Laurent Wauquiez on the right track to get back on track
He can, a priori, sleep rather peacefully.
In Auvergne - Rhône-Alpes, former Republican President Laurent Wauquiez is well ahead of voting intentions in the first round, with 35% of the vote in an Ifop-Fiducial poll.
Follow the list of the National Rally (22%), carried by Andréa Kotarac, that of the presidential majority LREM led by Bruno Bonnell (13%), and finally the two classified on the left which advances in dispersed order (Najat Vallaud-Belkacem , PS, 11%, and Fabienne Grébert, EELV, 11%).
In the second round, Wauquiez would win and the united left would finish second.
In Normandy, Hervé Morin narrowly reelected
The centrist Hervé Morin has a short lead against Nicolas Bay (RN) in the first round in Normandy (32% versus 28%).
The PS-EELV candidate, Mélanie Boulanger, comes third with 16% of the voting intentions, ahead of the Walker Laurent Bonnaterre (11%) and the Communist Sébastien Jumel (10%).
In the second round, Hervé Morin would be re-elected with 32% of the vote as well.
Occitanie could stay on the left ...
The RN could come first in the first round in Occitania, according to several recent opinion polls which place it at 30 or 33%.
Socialist Carole Delga, who is seeking re-election, would obtain only 26% and 30% respectively.
However, she would win in the second round.
However, for that to happen, he would need to ally himself with the ecologist Antoine Maurice, given 10% in the first round, so that they merge their lists.
... just like New Aquitaine
Same pattern in neighboring New Aquitaine, where the left could remain at the head of the regional executive.
However, the balance of power has just been reversed and the RN would come out on top in the first lap.
Its head of the list, Edwige Diaz, collects 27% of the voting intentions (+ 3 points in one less), in the last wave of the IPSOS survey for France 3 and France Bleu, that is to say two points more than Alain Rousset ( 25%).
But beware: the margins of error are very low.
The Socialist can at least be reassured by noting that he is always given a winner in the second round.
Strong uncertainty in Brittany ...
A first.
The candidate of the RN in Brittany, Gilles Pennelle, is given a short lead in the first round of the regional, according to the Ipsos poll.
Three lists actually arrive in a pocket square: that of the RN (20%), that of outgoing president Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF, 19%), and that of Thierry Burlot (LREM-Modem and UDI, 19% ).
In the event of a quadrangular in the second round, Loïg Chesnais-Girard would largely win if he reached a union with the environmentalists.
... as well as in the Center-val-de-Loire
In the neighboring Center-Val de Loire, Aleksandar Nikolic could allow the RN to turn in the lead (28%) in the first round, ahead of the outgoing PS François Bonneau (21%).
Impossible to anticipate what will happen next, which looks like a great leap into the unknown for local observers.
“Never have the voting intentions been so tight in the perspective of a second round,” writes France Bleu.
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The left believes in the Pays de la Loire
A good surprise for the left could come from Pays de la Loire.
The ecologist Matthieu Orphelin would win in the second round in the hypothesis of a quadrangular, even if he would be preceded by the outgoing president Christelle Morancais (LR) in the first (19% versus 25%).
In Corsica, the nationalists left to re-pile?
Gilles Simeoni, outgoing president of the Collectivité de Corse, is given 25% of the votes with his “Fà Populu Inseme” list. The elected nationalist is just ahead of “Un Soffiu Novu - Un Nouveau Souffle”, supported by the Republicans and led by Laurent Marcengeli, the mayor of Ajaccio (23% of the voting intentions). Only one other list, that of the Corsican Nation Party (PNC) led by Jean-Christophe Angelini, would be above 10%.
