Eduardo Paladini
06/11/2021 10:18 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 06/11/2021 10:18
Just as for years the consultants got tired of explaining that the good image of a leader does not necessarily translate into votes, today they could incorporate another sentence into their manual of political definitions:
a good personal assessment is not synonymous with leadership
.
This crossing of data and variables appears when the numbers of the main opposition leaders are analyzed:
Mauricio Macri, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich
.
In the midst of growing tension among the heads of Juntos por el Cambio over the profile that the alliance should take, the 2021 candidacies and the role they have to occupy themselves,
Clarín analyzed four national surveys
that measure them (along with other anti-K space figures).
Who do people see as the leader of the opposition?
Does the gaze of the public in general coincide with that of the Macristas and Kirchnerists in particular?
María Eugenia Vidal entering the national board meeting Together for Change this week.
Photo Fernando de la Orden.
The first conclusion is that there are no conclusive results. Although Larreta clearly prevails in the image measurements, when he asks about leadership, the figure of Macri reappears. Curiously when the personal assessment of the former president is not in a good moment.
Another particular case is that of
María Eugenia Vidal
.
Like the head of the Buenos Aires government, the former governor usually has good image numbers and even vote intention;
but when she is offered on the palette as the opposition leader, she is left out of the podium.
Leadership, according to the consulting firm Pérez Aramburú
Pérez Aramburú & Asociados
is one of the consulting firms close to Juntos por el Cambio.
He officially measured for the management of Macri in La Rosada and now he does it for the Government of the City.
In May he did a national survey of
1,740 cases
.
Clarín announced this Thursday part of the study, where electoral trends were measured.
With an interesting fact: the respondents who define themselves outside the crack (64% of the total) show a growing tendency to vote for candidates who can defeat the Government.
"Which of the following leaders leads the opposition to the national government?"
, the consultant has been asking since the end of last year.
And the fight is quite close between Larreta and Macri, with the head of government at the top.
But, as also highlighted in the pollster, with a
high rate among those who choose "none" and those who "don't know / don't answer."
In the last measurement, Larreta was at the top with 27%, followed by Macri with 21%, Bullrich 8%, Vidal 7%, Alfredo Cornejo 3% and Miguel Pichetto 2%. They completed "other" with 5%, "none" with 11% and "ns / nc" with 15%.
In the image table, instead, they are ordered like this:
1) Larreta: 45% positive and - 24% negative.
2) Vidal: + 44% and - 31%.
3) Bullrich: + 35% and - 42%.
4) Macri: + 31 and - 41%.
Leadership, according to the Management & Fit consultancy
It is one of the consulting firms
with the most presence in the world of politics
.
Among others, she worked for Sergio Massa, Vidal, and now she is still linked with the Cordovan governor Juan Schiaretti and Larreta.
Between May 24 and 29,
M&F
conducted a national survey of
2,200 cases
.
It is the study that shows the most difference in favor of the head of government.
In image and as the main opposition reference.
In the personal assessment table, Larreta leads with 41.9% positive and 32.5% negative.
Macri, on the other hand, is last among the opponents, with + 28.8% and -49.5%.
He only beats, narrowly, Axel Kicillof and Cristina Kirchner.
When the consultant asks "who do you think is the main point of reference for the opposition to Alberto Fernández's government today?", The head of government is again at the top, with 32.9%, almost doubling the former president (16 , 9%).
As a warning for Larreta,
while Macri remained stable, he fell almost 6 points
compared to April.
That month he had reached his peak as an opposition leader, basically due to the fight against the Government for face-to-face classes.
The ranking of opposition referents is completed by:
3) Bullrich: 14.4%
4) Vidal: 6.7%.
5) Pichetto 3.3%
- Other: 10.9%.
- Don't know: 14.9%.
When these data are crossed with those of the image,
the "lag" of Vidal is clear
: it is the one that has the highest positive personal assessment (+ 44.1%) and is second in differential (+ 7.4%), but it is relegated as an opposition leader.
Leadership, according to the consulting firm Taquion
It is a consulting firm that
grew in recent years in the world of politics and business
, and whose director,
Sergio Doval
, has a link with President Alberto Fernández from past campaigns.
Its latest survey, in May, included
2,526 cases
across the country.
It is one of the firms that the opposition leadership has been measuring for more than a year.
And Clarín advanced part of its recent survey, because it precisely warned that all the referents had fallen in this area compared to the previous month.
Doval linked it to the deepening internal fight at PRO
.
This poll once again shows Larreta first (21.7%) as the opposition leader, but brings Bullrich's second place (15.4%) as a novelty.
Macri is third (12%), Javier Milei fourth (5.2%) and Vidal fifth (4.2%).
But perhaps the most striking thing is that for 21.5% "there is no leader in the opposition" and for 11.6% directly "there is no opposition."
When the evolution of the data is analyzed, again Macri is the most stable,
while Larreta and Bullrich suffered more oscillations
depending on the situation (and their positions) at the time.
Leadership, according to the consulting firm Opinaia
It is another of the firms that has grown the most in recent years.
It was a
pioneer in online measurements
and currently, among other clients, it has the City Government.
Its most recent measurement included
1,800 cases
nationwide.
It is another of the firms that the opposition leadership has been evaluating for months and is
the only one that has Macri at the top, in a head-to-head fight with Larreta.
In the latest poll, the former president surpasses the head of government by one point (41% to 40%). And they complete Vidal (7%), Nicolás del Caño (4%), Roberto Lavagna (3%), José Luis Espert (3%) and Juan José Gómez Centurión (2%).
Bullrich does not appear in the table, because the
Opinaia
poll
is ordered according to the 2019 presidential election. In this case, all the candidates appear, plus Vidal.
The consultancy also shows a
cut in results due to political affinity
.
That is, who is the opposition leader for the voters of Together for Change and for the voters of the Front of All.
There are no major differences,
the gap in favor of Macri
only
grows a little
(45, against 41% of Larreta) among the voters themselves.