Eduardo Paladini
06/13/2021 4:27 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 06/13/2021 4:27 PM
Clarín's advance this Sunday that the UCR
will play the figure of Facundo Manes in the province of Buenos Aires
against its allies from PRO and the Civic Coalition, triggers the questions: How tall is the neuroscientist? Are your numbers on a par with your internal rivals? A consulting firm evaluated the image of the radical leader throughout the country. And it went very well. So much so that when his figures in Buenos Aires are compared
with those of other eight referents of Together for Change
, Manes is the one with the best balance. Now: can that translate into votes? Impossible to know today.
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
is a firm with origins in Córdoba that
surveys the 24 provinces
.
And there it passes through the filter not only local governors, but also different leaders with national projection.
From Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner to Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, through Axel Kicillof and María Eugenia Vidal.
Facundo Manes, with María Eugenia Vidal and the former Buenos Aires Chief of Staff Federico Salvai.
In March, the consulting firm decided to
add two radicals to the list of evaluated -Manes and Alfredo Cornejo-
, taking into account that the district-by-district evaluation is a parameter for politicians with presidential aspirations, and they themselves signed up in the fight.
Those first numbers left
good feelings for the neuroscientist.
Basically for two reasons
: their level of knowledge was relatively high throughout the country and their rejection quite low.
And where the best data showed was precisely the province of Buenos Aires.
Best balance in the top 9 of Together for Change
The pollster repeated Manes's measurement in April.
And there it improved compared to the previous month: it was
53.4% positive and barely 18.7% negative.
A balance in favor of 34.7 points
.
Clearly above the other eight Together for Change leaders evaluated.
Cornejo
, head of radicalism and who was also measured in April,
was fourth, with a
neutral
differential
(26% positive and 26% negative), but with a high ignorance (48% of "ns / nc").
The rest of the leaders of Together for Change were evaluated in May.
The other two who ended up with a balance in favor were Larreta and Diego Santilli
, the latter the letter from the head of Government to fight in the Province.
Larreta combined 57.2% positive (better than Manes), but with 40.3% negative (differential of 16.9 points in favor). The Buenos Aires deputy chief started from a lower floor, but more than acceptable: + 45.1% and - 37.3% (+ 7.8 of balance).
The rest (always taking the differential as the computer of the table) was like this:
5th Martín Lousteau
: 44.7% positive and 44.9% negative (- 0.2 point differential).
6th Jorge Macri
: + 37.9% and - 38.7% (- 0.8).
7th María Eugenia Vidal
: + 46.9% and - 50.4% (- 3.5).
8th Gerardo Morales
: + 25.4% and - 42.1% (- 16.7).
9th Mauricio Macri
: + 27.7% and - 68.9% (- 41.2).
The image numbers of Manes in the province of Buenos Aires - always according to
CB
- were even better than those of the pro-government leaders evaluated there.
Cristina adds + 39.2 and - 59.3%, Kicillof + 41.7% and - 56%, Alberto F. + 45.9% and - 51.8%, and Sergio Massa + 34.4% and - 60 , 8%.
The valuation of potential K candidates such as
Sergio Berni (+ 44.9% and - 47.5%), Santiago Cafiero (+ 37.7% and - 51%) and Daniel Arroyo (+ + 34.7% and - 33.6%)
.
More government officials with a worse image balance than the neuroscientist.
The central question: is image votes?
Beyond this good initial parameter for Manes, his electoral potential has not yet been evaluated.
There were many cases in the province of Buenos Aires of leaders with a very good image who later could not translate it - at least not in all its dimension - at the polls.
Two examples: Ricardo Alfonsín and Margarita Stolbizer.
A case at the national level?
Roberto Lavagna.
The neuroscientist, who in the provincial intern of the UCR played in favor of the Maximiliano Abad sector -where Manes's brother also ran-, could have tested this doubt in 2017, when it
was a number sung for the list of Change in Province
.
Finally he decided to get off (it is speculated) because he had to go second, under Graciela Ocaña.
That ballot, with Esteban Bullrich for senator, was the one that beat Cristina Kirchner in Province.
Lost opportunity.
Vidal, Ocaña, Bullrich and Montenegro, among others, in the celebration of the Buenos Aires legislature in 2017.
Now would you accept to go to a STEP and in case of losing, be inserted in the ballot?
Will you give any clues about this on Wednesday, at the planned event with the radical leadership in which you would participate?
How do you imagine this intermediate step for your great ambition, which is to fight the presidential 2023?
The electoral scenario in the Province, the pollsters warn, is very complex.
Most of the polls lead to the Frente de Todos, but by a smaller advantage than in 2019
.
And there was even a study that put Together for Change at the forefront for the first time.
Less than three months before PASO, the reappearance of Manes adds unknowns.
