After the Corona crisis, Germany could face a dynamic upswing.
However, according to the Ifo Institute, this will not be long-lasting - there is a lack of manpower.
Munich (dpa) - According to the Ifo Institute, the global delivery bottlenecks will slow down the upswing in Germany.
The Munich economists expect growth of 3.3 percent for this year with the end of the Corona crisis, as the institute announced.
That would be 0.4 percentage points less than expected in March.
According to the economic researcher Timo Wollmershäuser, the bottlenecks in the delivery of preliminary products - this means, among other things, a lack of chips for the auto industry and a lack of supplies of building materials - are causing a damper.
Ifo Institute has a clear outlook for 2022
On the other hand, things could go up much more strongly in the coming year than originally thought. For 2022, the Ifo Institute increased its growth forecast by 1.1 points to 4.3 percent. Regardless of this, the Munich economists are significantly less optimistic than the Bundesbank, which expects a much faster upswing - in the coming year even of over 5 percent. Unlike the Frankfurt monetary authorities, Wollmershäuser and his colleagues do not expect citizens to spend their savings from the crisis year 2020 with full hands.
According to Ifo, economic growth will slow down significantly by the middle of the decade, to an average of only 0.7 percent per year.
"That has nothing to do with the fact that we will see a great many people leaving the working world in the next few years," said Wollmershäuser about the upcoming wave of retirement among the baby boomer generation.
Ifo boss Fuest warns of tax increases
Ifo President Clemens Fuest warned against tax increases because they could stifle growth even further.
"That would make the development of the private investments that we need impossible, or at least very, very difficult," said Fuest.
"Germany's future ultimately depends on the development of private investments."
For the near future of the German labor market, the Ifo researchers assume that the situation will ease from the employee's point of view.
At the end of May, an estimated 2.3 million people were on short-time work.
For the coming year, the economists expect only 100,000 short-time workers, just as few as before the beginning of the crisis.
Unemployment could therefore fall from 2.7 million at the end of 2020 to 2.4 million.
But citizens and companies have to be prepared for a noticeable rise in prices compared to the previous year.
For this year, the Ifo Institute expects an inflation rate of 2.6 percent, mainly due to higher energy prices and the renewed increase in VAT.
"We will reach the top towards the end of the year," said Wollmershäuser.
The scientists do not believe that this will soon lead to higher interest rates.
