Jérôme Sainte-Marie heads Polling Vox, a research and consulting company specializing in public opinion issues. He has notably published “Block against block, the dynamics of macronism”, Éditions du Cerf, 2019.
FIGAROVOX. -
According to an Ifop-Fiducial study for Le Figaro and LCI
, the list of the National Rally in PACA, led by Thierry Mariani, would emerge as a winner in the regional elections.
Is the RN guaranteed to win?
Jérôme SAINTE MARIE. -
These voting intentions show an undeniable dynamic of the Mariani list in the first round, which makes possible its victory in all the configurations of the second round, including, but with today a small gap, in the event of a duel with the list Muzzle.
In this last hypothesis, the game remains very open, two points separating the two lists.
However, there are several elements that work in favor of Thierry Mariani.
His local image, the fact that he was a minister during the Sarkozy five-year term, the particular connotation of his list, supported by the National Rally but less politically marked than was the Marshal list, and finally the ambiguity of the positioning of the Muselier list, all of this gives credibility to its chances of success.
The IFOP poll shows that in the event of a triangular one-third of LR sympathizers would vote for the Mariani list, and therefore against that dubbed by the national leadership of the right.
Jerome Sainte-Marie
There remain uncertainties about the mobilization phenomena.
In 2015, participation had climbed from 52% to 60% between the two rounds.
Although it then rose by 170,000 votes, Marion Maréchal had not exceeded 45% of the votes cast.
This scenario will not be repeated with such intensity, but we must remain cautious about the meaning of the second-round voting intentions measured before the first has taken place.
Has the majority's support for the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier's list helped to favor Thierry Mariani?
It should be seen that the events mediatized around this support were for many voters in PACA the real beginning of the campaign of the regional ones. However, the image given, that of confused negotiations, sheltered from the public eye, corresponds to a representation of politics that the French increasingly reject. By contrast, Thierry Mariani was strengthened by it.
The IFOP poll shows that in the event of a triangular one-third of LR sympathizers would vote for the Mariani list, and therefore against that dubbed by the national leadership of the right.
A quarter of them say they are not satisfied with Renaud Muselier as president of the region, a considerable figure which undoubtedly also refers to his action as head of the list.
If we add to this the sling of certain elected officials on the right, the operation does not seem to have been happy for Renaud Muselier.
The left does not yet know if it will hold up in the second round or will fade away in favor of Renaud Muselier. Do you think that the “republican front” would be as effective as in 2015, when Christophe Castaner had withdrawn in favor of Christian Estrosi, against Marion Maréchal?
Here too, the present situation contrasts sharply with that of 2015. At the time, to persuade Christophe Castaner and his running mates to withdraw, strong pressure could be exerted from Paris, with a still powerful Socialist Party and an executive headed by François Holland.
The promises of recognition of the gesture accomplished were much more credible than they would be today.
The good performance of the main left list led by Jean-Laurent Felizia, who has gained two points in three weeks and stands at 17%, also makes his withdrawal more difficult.
The mobilization of left-wing voters in favor of the Muselier list would be all the more limited as the outgoing regional president now embodies both the local right and the Macronist national power.
Jerome Sainte-Marie
Finally, the latest polls all show that the supposed "republican front" does not guarantee the defeat of the Mariani list.
Consequently, the main argument of the sacrifice which would be asked of the regional left weakens.
Let us admit, however, that the second round boils down to a duel.
In this case, it is likely that the mobilization of left-wing voters in favor of the Muselier list would be all the more limited as the outgoing regional president now embodies both the local right and the Macronist national power.
The “republican front” would therefore certainly not have the same effectiveness this year.
How would a victory for the RN in the PACA region have a particularly strong symbolic significance?
Such an eventuality would have important and lasting consequences. With all the necessary precautions, this would be a decisive event for the future of the right, as Renaud Muselier said, but also for the political life of the country. The Republicans party would be in a very uncomfortable situation, insofar as on so-called sovereign subjects, such as security or immigration, its sympathizers commune with those of the National Rally. They are much more circumspect in economic and social matters, but the management of a large region, open to the world and dynamic, could indirectly transform the image of the National Rally. The absorption from the first round of En Marche candidates in the list supported by LR would then have dramatic consequences. So,on the rest of the national territory as in PACA, many elected LR could seek support from the National Assembly. The course of the presidential election could only be affected.