Eduardo Paladini
06/16/2021 7:30 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 06/16/2021 7:30 AM
Less than three months before the PASO, a
polling war
begins to move the electoral thermometer in the main district of the country.
Clarín
agreed on Tuesday to a
new poll in the province of Buenos Aires
, which places the
Frente de Todos
with an
advantage of around 12 points
. The data "collides" with two other studies, also recently known and anticipated by this newspaper, which surprised by placing
Juntos por el Cambio
at
the top
in Buenos Aires.
The latest survey is of
Projection
and, as explained by the firm, it was commissioned by
"Valores para mi País"
, the space led by
Cynthia Hotton
.
Candidate for vice president in 2019 with Juan José Gómez Centurión, the evangelical leader is now running for deputy in the Province.
He was in the assembly of a great liberal / republican front, but, as this newspaper reported, that alliance did not materialize and its leaders are dispersing in different offers.
Projection is one of the
newer political consulting firms
.
He measured for the last elections and the team that makes up this firm also worked for the University of La Matanza, dependent on the national government.
Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, in a housing advertisement.
In Province, 49.1% approve of his management and 48.1% disapprove.
The work he released includes
1,229 cases
, surveyed in the Province between June 8 and 10, and the results are presented with a 2.87% margin of error.
Before entering the electoral field, the report details image numbers and the economic and social situation.
- 56.7% say that "in personal and family matters", their "standard of living is now" between "just as bad" (16.7%) or "worse (40%) than a year ago".
- 43.8% are pessimistic about how they will be in the remainder of the year, against 39.4% optimistic.
- 58.2% believe that the economy is going "in the wrong direction".
- "Inflation / The high price of basic foods" (29.4%) is the main problem identified by the Buenos Aires survey respondents, followed by "Unemployment / lack of employment / staying out of work / low wages" (15, 5%).
- 49.1% approve "the management of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner", against 48.1% who disapprove.
- 47.4% approve "the management of Axel Kicillof", against 46.6% who disapprove.
Bipartisanship and voting intention by space
Then yes, the consulting firm gets fully into the
electoral field
.
And it starts with an interesting general question, about a possible classic bipartisanship between right and left.
"If you participated in an election where only two different fronts competed,
one made up of left and center-left parties and the other made up of right and center-right parties
, would you vote for which of the two fronts?"
Projection
consulted
.
There was
almost a triple tie
among the undecided ("I don't know"), with 24%, the left / center-left variant (23.9%) and the right / center-right variant (22.1%).
Just below was "neither of the two" (18.7%) and completed 11.3% of "I would be indifferent".
v1.6
Voting intention in Province 1
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,229 cases.
On %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Infographic
projection
:
Clarín
He immediately expanded the question, with
a more local focus and with crack logic
: "What if the elections were today, and the options were only the following, which one would you vote for?"
This is where
the ruling party was 12 points up
, quite similar to what Kicillof took from María Eugenia Vidal in the general election for governor (52.40% to 38.28%).
1st Front of All 38%.
2 ° Together for Change 26%.
3rd Another force or center-right front 8.2%.
4 ° Another force or center-left front 4.1%.
- None 8.7%.
- I don't know 15%.
One STEP, but only with women
Later, the consultant broadens the scenario even more and offers several options from different parties for an
eventual PASO in Buenos Aires
.
With a particularity: they are
all women
.
In the summation, the Frente de Todos remains at the top, by a smaller margin:
38.7% against 29.2% of Juntos por el Cambio
.
The table is
headed by Vidal (19.6%), who has already warned that he does not want to be a candidate in the Province
.
Elisa Carrió, on the other hand, who had volunteered to lead but then dropped out, measures only 6.1%.
v1.6
Voting intention in Province 2
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,229 cases.
On %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Infographic
projection
:
Clarín
Among the
K variants, there is an even fight
between Victoria Tolosa Paz (head of the National Council of Social Policies) and Fernanda Raverta (in charge of the ANSeS).
Somewhat more relegated is Malena Galmarini (president of Aysa).
The rest fight below.
Hotton, who commissioned the survey, appears with 2.6%, a few tenths below what it would need to enter.
And
the number of Graciela Camaño
, of Peronism no K is striking: just 1.8%.
The top ten was like this:
1st María Eugenia Vidal (Together for Change) 19.6%.
2nd Victoria Tolosa Paz (Front of All) 14.5%.
3rd Fernanda Raverta (Front of All) 14.1%.
4th Malena Galmarini (Front of All) 10.1%.
5th Elisa Carrió (Together for Change) 6.1%.
6th Florence Arietto (Together for Change) 3.5%.
7th Cynthia Hotton (Values for my Country) 2.6%.
8th Romina Del Plá (Left Front) 2.4%.
9th Lilia Lemoine (Libertarian Front) 2.2%.
10th Graciela Camano (Federal Consensus) 1.8%.
- White 10.7%.
- I don't know 12.4%.
Beyond the curiosity of the female monopoly and the fact that it is still a parameter, it is
an unlikely scenario
.
And where, for example, the libertarian candidate (
José Luis Espert
) could enter the internship with Together for Change and add something there as well.
General choice, with one offer per space
Finally, the consultant inquires: "If the elections for the Chamber of Deputies were today and the following lists were presented, which one would you vote for?"
And it offers a variant by space, where you
choose heads of lists between names that sound but are not confirmed
.
Once again, the Frente de Todos
(in this case represented by Daniel Scioli) came
first
, with an advantage of close to 10 points over Juntos por el Cambio (with Jorge Macri as the benchmark).
A
gap that could eventually be reduced
if the almost five points of the Republican Peronism of Miguel Angel Pichetto are added.
Although in electoral politics, an alliance between two does not always guarantee the sum of what each had separately.
v1.6
Voting intention in Province 3
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,229 cases.
On %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Infographic
projection
:
Clarín
In this table, the order looks like this:
1st Front of All (headed by Daniel Scioli) 33.1%.
2nd Together for Change (led by Jorge Macri) 23.5%.
3rd Libertarian Front (led by José Luis Espert) 5.7%.
4th Republican Peronism (led by Miguel Ángel Pichetto) 4.7%.
5th Left Front (headed by Nicolás del Caño) 3.6%.
Analysis of results and other surveys
Consulted by Clarín about these numbers, from Proyección they assured that they see "
a scenario of polarization similar to that of the last election
. The two main forces each consolidate 70% of their votes in 2019. But there is a high level of undecided and in in the case of migrations, they would not go from one pole to the other, but would
be an opportunity for third options
".
Telephone for Peronism no K that drives (a)
Florencio Randazzo
?
In any case, these are very preliminary numbers, and with the precedent that for the last elections,
no one foresaw such a large gap in favor of the Frente de Todos
, neither at the national level nor in the province of Buenos Aires, and on all for the STEP.
Former Minister Florencio Randazzo in a talk with militants from the province of Córdoba.
He could head a variant of the PJ no K in Buenos Aires.
In this context, perhaps, the dispersion of Buenos Aires numbers is not so striking.
Clarín
advanced the weekend a
surprising study that for the first time gave up to Together for the Change in the Province
.
It was from the
Management & Fit
consultancy
.
And this Monday,
Clarín
also
gave an account of another Buenos Aires poll, of a very reliable pollster for Peronism, which also placed the opposition a few points above and
had alarmed Cristina Kirchner herself.
On the other hand, another close antecedent published by this newspaper, from the
Opinaia
consultancy
, where
the ruling party appeared at the top, but with an advantage of only three points
.
