The EU sees the deterioration of relations with Russia as the "most likely" scenario

Europe does not seem to have many illusions about the success of the summit in Geneva between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. On the same day that the presidents of the United States and Russia met to attempt a rapprochement, the European Commission has published a report that anticipates new turbulence between the EU and its gigantic neighbor to the east. "The EU has to be realistic and prepare for a further deterioration of our relations," said the High Representative for Foreign Policy of the institution, Josep Borrell, during the presentation of the report that will be transferred to the European summit next week and in which a whole memorial of charges against Moscow is collected.

"The Russian leadership uses a variety of instruments to influence, interfere, weaken or even try to destabilize the EU and its Member States," says the document, commissioned by the European Council from the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and to Borrell, in his capacity as head of European diplomacy.

The report lists "increasingly sophisticated" cyber attacks orchestrated from Russia, information manipulation campaigns, chemical weapons attacks on European soil or explosions at a military center in the Czech Republic.

More information

• The summit between Putin and Biden in Geneva seeks to unfreeze the dialogue between the US and Russia

• Putin announces that he has agreed with Biden the return of the ambassadors

Borrell has acknowledged that relations between the EU and Russia "are at their lowest point." And he believes that "continued deterioration is the most likely scenario at the moment."

The Commission's report, which will be analyzed and probably endorsed by the 27 governments of the EU next week, presents a three-way street to deal with a neighbor whom it defines as “a key strategic challenge”. Von der Leyen and Borrell suggest tackling the "negative spiral" with response measures, such as sanctions, against human rights violations by the Kremlin and with a closed defense of international order against territorial aggressions against Ukraine, Georgia or others. neighbors to the east. “The EU firmly rejects Russia's goal of having a privileged sphere of influence. The eastern partners have a full and sovereign right to freely decide the form and depth of their relations with the EU and other international actors, ”the document states.

"In certain areas, Russia is a necessary, if not inevitable partner"

Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy

The second track points to containment of Russia's attempts to undermine the interests of the EU.

In this area, the improvement of defense, cybersecurity and resistance capabilities against hybrid threats is aimed at, in cooperation with NATO.

And, as a way of hitting Russian interests, there is a need to "make better use of the leverage capacity provided by our energy transition and the full application of European energy market regulations."

The idea of ​​Brussels is to exploit Russia's dependence on the European market, to which it allocates two-thirds of its oil and gas exports, while in China it only sells 27% and 2% respectively.

Energy transition

The report notes that "Russia suffers from serious and growing structural weaknesses", with a 10% drop in disposable income since 2013. Under these conditions, Brussels believes that limiting access to the European energy market could do a lot of damage to a country in the that oil, gas and coal represent 60% of its exports, 40% of its budget income and 25% of its Gross Domestic Product. The Commission estimates that in 10 to 20 years time Russia will be hit by the impact of the EU's energy transition, which aims to drastically reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.

The third proposal from Brussels, the most desirable but the one that seems distant and complicated, is the development of a “positive agenda”, based on cooperation in the fight against climate change or on global scenarios where the EU and Russia have interests (from Libya to the Middle East or the Arctic). "In certain areas, Russia is a necessary partner, if not inevitable," Borrell acknowledged in the presentation of his report.

The promotion of contact between the respective populations is also indicated as a way towards greater understanding. Russia is already the country in the world where more visas are issued for the Schengen zone (4.1 million in 2019, before the pandemic) and it is the country outside the EU with the most students in the Erasmus + scholarship program. But for now it does not seem that all this movement has stopped the aggressive attitude of Putin's team towards the EU.