Atlantic storms begin to wake up 1:28
(CNN) - The
(CNN) - The
United States is likely to be hit by the first tropical system of the season later this week, bringing nearly 12 inches of rain to parts of an already soggy South.
The system is currently stationed over the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico as a collection of disorganized rains and storms.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates that the probability of tropical development within the next 48 hours is 70% and a probability of 90% within the next five days in the Gulf.
If the disturbance intensifies according to forecasts, it will be called Claudette, the third named storm of the 2021 season.
Uncertainty is high regarding the storm's path as it has yet to form, but current forecasts indicate that the system will hit the northern Gulf Coast this weekend.
Landfall is possible from the Texas coast to Florida.
"A tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night or Friday as the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico," the NHC said in its discussion.
Current model guidance indicates that the storm will head toward the western Gulf Coast, near Texas and Louisiana.
There is considerable uncertainty in the tracks, but if this scenario plays out, areas vulnerable to flooding could see the greatest impacts from the system.
With the start of the hurricane season, the Catholics of the coast turn to this saint to protect themselves from the storms
Floods are the biggest concern, warns the National Weather Service
Florida's central Gulf Coast and Panhandle expect significant amounts of rain as early-season storms tend to be weak, with rainfall far removed from the center of the storm, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Mobile.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle expect heavy rains.
"We've had a fair amount of rain in the last few months," said NWS meteorologist Chanelle Stigger in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
“We had heavy rain and saw over 12 inches of rain right in the Lake Charles area.
The soils have been quite saturated. '
Stigger said the rain "would be our biggest concern."
This storm that forms in the Gulf brings haunting memories to the people of Louisiana.
The 2020 hurricane season was active, with four named storms making landfall just off the Louisiana coast.
Floods were a huge problem for the coastal region and have already proven problematic in recent months.
Lake Charles and other parts of southern Louisiana that were hit by two hurricanes in the 2020 season saw up to 12 inches of rain in a rain event last month.
May 17 was recorded as the third wettest day in Lake Charles history.
This was the disastrous 2020 hurricane season
All of southern Louisiana saw massive amounts of rain in May, and residents wished the rain would end.
System rainfall this weekend could range between 7 and 10 inches from New Orleans to Mobile, Alabama.
"These amounts could cause widespread flooding, as well as increases in area rivers to flood level or higher," warns the NWS in New Orleans.
Fortunately, current models show that the system moves through the region between 16 and 24 km / h.
"That bodes well, generally speaking, to prevent this from being an event like Harvey," the NWS said in New Orleans.
Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coast on August 25, 2017 as a major category four hurricane.
The storm stopped off the coast for five days and dumped 1.3 meters of rain in parts of Texas.
Flooding will be just one of the main concerns as the weekend approaches.
"Wave heights are increasing rapidly throughout the day on Friday with 1.8 meters or more by Friday afternoon," stated NWS Mobile in its discussion of the forecast.
Rip tides caused by southerly winds and storm surge will likely impact coastal areas.
Concerns about high winds could be possible and will become more apparent as the disturbance enters the warm waters of the Gulf.