Eduardo Paladini
06/17/2021 8:27 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 06/17/2021 8:27 AM
It is the thermometer of a current fight, but that will never be reflected in the polls.
At least not this year.
In the midst of the
bid for candidacies in the City of Buenos Aires
, a
new poll
came out to measure the
image and votes
of four key PRO leaders.
Two hard and two moderate.
On the one hand,
Mauricio Macri
and
Patricia Bullrich
, who are in tandem so that the former minister heads the Buenos Aires list.
On the other,
María Eugenia Vidal
and
Fernán Quirós
, allies that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta imagined (he still imagines in her case) precisely to stop Bullrich.
How did it go?
To all relatively well, even very well in electoral terms, with a plus for the partners of the Buenos Aires head of government.
The study carried out by
Clarín
this Thursday is by
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
, a firm with origins in Córdoba that makes measurements throughout the country.
For more than a year it has been
developing an interesting ranking of governors and also evaluates leaders with national projection in the 24 provinces
.
She was one of the first to test Facundo Manes, the fashionable Buenos Aires radical in this way.
And it comes from making a good prognosis in the recent election in Misiones.
it also measured the voting intention of Ricardo López Murphy
Macri and Bullrich: image and votes of the "hard"
Although it is
ruled out that the former president is present as a candidate this year
, as he himself remarked at the end of last year,
CB
decided to measure it as a way to test his weight in the district where he forged his career and made the leap to the major leagues of politics.
Perhaps
in the same way that it happens to Cristina Kirchner in the Province
, the former president shows a negative image balance in the City, but retains a high electoral potential.
v 1.5
Image and votes of Macri in the City
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,387 cases.
On %.
Picture
Votes
Source
CB Public Opinion Consultant
Infographic:
Clarín
Macri is the
only one of the four PRO leaders evaluated in this Buenos Aires poll with a higher rating against
(54.8%) than in favor.
However, it shows a
considerable vote intention floor
(20.8% "I would surely vote for it") and a ceiling that is also good (it reaches 45.5% when 24.7% of "could vote for it" is added.
In the "must" of the former president, just as he has the highest negative image in CABA,
his electoral rejection is consistent: 47.7% "would not be interested in voting for him
.
"
v 1.5
Image and votes of Bullrich in the City
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,387 cases.
On %.
Picture
Votes
Source
CB Public Opinion Consultant
Infographic:
Clarín
Bullrich appears with a similar tonality but better balance. She is also a leader who generates love and hatred in the district, but in her case with a differential in favor: she combines 51.5% positive image with 43.5% negative image.
The
electoral numbers of the former Minister for the City also take a leap
: her floor ("I would surely vote for her" grows to 25.5% and the ceiling to 48.1% (adding the 22.6% of "I could vote for her") In the same vein, the rejection falls (43.5% "would not be interested in voting for it").
Interesting figures, but without reaching the limits that Larreta himself achieved in 2019, when he exceeded 50 points to win his re-election in the first round.
Vidal and Quirós: image and votes of the "moderates"
When the survey falls on Larreta's allies,
the figures grow even more
.
Surely because due to their more dialogist profile, they "fish" support outside of the macrismo and / or hard anti-Kirchnerism.
The former governor, who will define if she is a candidate (it sounds in CABA and is practically ruled out in Province) when she returns from the United States,
combines 61% positive and 34% negative image
.
v 1.5
Image and votes of Vidal in the City
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,387 cases.
On %.
Picture
Votes
Source
CB Public Opinion Consultant
Infographic:
Clarín
And
its electoral potential takes a qualitative leap
: 34.7% of the floor ("I would surely vote for her") and 57.6% of the ceiling (adding the 22.9 points of "I could vote for her").
Perhaps due to figures similar to these, the head of government had proposed to Bullrich to settle candidacies through the polls, a methodology that the former minister rejected.
As for Quirós, the Minister of Health who became known to the general public due to the pandemic and has a very high acceptance in public opinion, is the one that shows the best image balance: 60.5% positive and only 16% negative.
v 1.5
Image and votes of Quirós in the City
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,387 cases.
On %.
Picture
Votes
Source
CB Public Opinion Consultant
Infographic:
Clarín
His electoral projection is also very good: it
shows the best floor (36.1% "I would surely vote for him")
and a ceiling slightly below that of Vidal (55.9%, adding 19.8% (of "I could vote for him ").
A temptation for these legislatures, although close to the minister and Larreta himself already said that due to the complexity of the pandemic,
it would not be a good sign to run him out of the management to play it politically
.
A STEP, with López Murphy as guest
Finally, regarding the intern of Together for Change in the City, CB measured how a STEP would come out with
the four mentioned leaders plus López Murphy
.
The moderates won
, with a technical tie by Vidal (20.5%) and Quirós (19.8%), one notch below is Macri (14%), fourth is Bullrich (10.9%) and the former minister closes liberal with 3.2%.
They complete "other" (5.2%), "I don't know" (4.8%) and "I would not vote for any" (21.6%).