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(CNN) -
As recently reported COVID-19 cases in the United States fall to some of the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic, the link between vaccines and transmission is becoming clearer, exposing pockets of populations at risk, but also a safer path to the future.
A CNN analysis found that states that have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents tend to have covid-19 rates lower than the average for states that have a declining vaccination trend.
Meanwhile, states that have vaccinated less than half of their residents have higher average COVID-19 case rates.
Each of the states that saw an increase in cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week has fully vaccinated less than half of its residents, and most have vaccinated less than 40% of residents.
The United States recorded about 25 new cases per 100,000 residents in the past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University (JHU).
Among states that have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents, the average case rate was about 24% lower, about 20 cases per 100,000 people.
But among states that have vaccinated less than 35% of their residents, the average was about 41 new cases per 100,000 people, about 1.6 times higher than the nation's rate, and more than double the average rate. among states that have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents.
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It is a "crucial" time to get vaccinated
Dr. Peter Hotez, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children's Hospital, said Tuesday on CNN's New Day that he believes "anyone who is not vaccinated at this time is at a" very, very high risk. especially as the Delta variant of coronavirus continues to grow in prominence in the United States
He said it is "a crucial time" to increase vaccination rates to avoid another wave in the coming months.
There are exceptions to this trend, which experts say are expected in this phase of the pandemic.
Washington, for example, is one of 11 states that has fully vaccinated more than half of its residents, according to CDC data, but the state also had one of the 10 highest case rates in the past week, according to show the JHU data.
And Tennessee had one of the lowest case rates of the week, despite nearly a third of residents being fully vaccinated.
"The potential for outbreaks is greatest in places that are less vaccinated, but that doesn't mean they happen at a predictable time," William Hanage, a fellow at the Center for Dynamics of Communicable Diseases at Harvard University and an associate professor of epidemiology.
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As in the early days of the pandemic, outbreaks may seem more "random," but we now know that infections are spreading more among unvaccinated people.
"We tend to be in contact with people who have a vaccination status similar to ours, so unvaccinated people are more likely to connect with other unvaccinated people, but there will be occasional outbreaks even in relatively well-vaccinated communities," he said. Hanange.
"A community can have 90% of its residents fully immunized, but if 10% of the unvaccinated get together in the same bar or in the same workplace, there can still be outbreaks."
And when fall rolls around, elementary schools are one of those groups that may be at risk, experts say.
"There is great potential in the fall for elementary schools to become a melting pot for covid, and potentially all variants of concern will emerge from that," LJ Tan, strategy director for the Immunization Action Coalition, told CNN.
"But I am optimistic that we will have the opportunity to vaccinate many children in the future."
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The unvaccinated "risk the worst"
In Washington state, about 51% of residents are fully vaccinated, but that rate varies greatly by county.
In King County in Seattle, more than 60% of residents are fully vaccinated, but vaccination coverage is less than 35% in about a quarter of the state's counties, CDC data shows.
"The burden of covid-19 in our state right now is mostly in unvaccinated people," Washington state health secretary Dr. Umair Shah told CNN.
And since the state kept COVID-19 infections relatively low during the pandemic (Washington has one of the five lowest overall case rates, according to JHU data), there are more opportunities for the virus to spread wherever it is. unvaccinated people.
"We have to be very, very concerned about our vaccination rates," Shah said.
“We had that success in preventing people from getting COVID in the first place, and that is not the right path (for herd immunity).
So we really need to rely on vaccination. '
He said there is the possibility of a "two-partnership story" as the reopening continues in the United States.
It could mean that vaccinated community members return to their normal activities with a level of protection, and unvaccinated people do the same, but risk the worst.
Experts say continued vigilance is key.
"We can't have a false sense of security," Tan said. "If we don't stop being vigilant, these more transmissible variants can take hold (in the unvaccinated) and they will be two steps forward, one step back."
"If you were in the group of (those who prefer) 'wait and see', it is time to stop waiting because you can see and be sure that vaccination is extremely safe."
- CNN's Naomi Thomas contributed to this report.
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