100 days to go until the federal election: What is different this time

Enlarge image

Chancellor candidates Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz

Photo: Malte Ossowski / Sven Simon / imago images

The candidates

Two men and a woman are officially fighting for the successor to Angela Merkel: Armin Laschet (CDU) and Olaf Scholz (SPD) are running as candidates for chancellor for the Union and Social Democrats, Annalena Baerbock as candidate for Chancellor of the Greens.

And even if Christian Lindner approaches the SPD with his FDP in the polls and was recently even allowed to discuss energy issues with the trio, he is not given any chances at the Chancellery.

The same applies, of course, to the left with its top candidate team Janine Wissler and Dietmar Bartsch and the AfD with the top duo Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

In all surveys, the Union parties are currently ahead, but just a few weeks ago it looked different: The Greens were sometimes seen in first place.

The situation is so volatile that the SPD, currently in third place, has further chances for the Chancellery - in some surveys the Social Democrats are only three percentage points behind the Greens.

Because: Even if the Union were to become the strongest force in the new Bundestag, a majority in a three-party coalition could put the Chancellor against it.

Second place in the election for the top post in the government could lead.

What is different this time than usual?

Angela Merkel

will not be on any ballot papers after 16 years as chancellor.

The CDU politician had announced early on that she would withdraw after this federal election.

This is the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany that there is no incumbent: This is another reason why the race is so open, there is no official bonus for anyone.

What are the main topics?

Two global crises are likely to determine the election campaign:

• The corona pandemic: One of the

  decisive

  factors

  is how the corona situation in Germany will look in September. If the vaccination campaign is successful, the dangerous Delta variant has not yet penetrated and the number of infections remains low, the consequences of the crisis should be the main issue. Who will pay the costs of the pandemic and how will the economy get going again? The SPD, the Greens and the Left want to increase taxes for top earners and the wealthy, the Union and FDP rule that out. However, the CDU and CSU will only present their election program on Monday.

• The climate crisis:

  Germany should become climate neutral by 2045.

  The way to get there is a matter of dispute: is it primarily a question of increasing the price of petrol and heating oil?

  How do the parties intend to balance this out socially?

  And what ideas do you have for expanding renewable energies?

Why is this choice so important?

After 16 years Merkel has, on the one hand, the opportunity for a fresh start, and on the other hand, the corona pandemic has thrown a lot of things upside down - including political certainties.

In addition, there is a new geopolitical constellation in which, following the election of US President Joe Biden, a front position between the reunited West and China is increasingly emerging.

The new federal government has an important role to play here, including for European positioning.

In the end, therefore, the decisive question is: do the Germans really want a clear change in the Chancellery under these circumstances, possibly even with a Green as Merkel's successor?

How is the pandemic changing the election campaign?

Postal

voting

is likely to

play

a significantly larger role this year due to the pandemic

.

The documents will be sent out at the beginning of August, so the hot phase of the election campaign will drag on for a longer period of time - and because record turnout is expected this way, the parties have to have their messages ready much earlier than usual.

The strategists of the parties nevertheless assume that the undecided will only make their decision shortly before the election date.

Even if the pandemic is just flattening out, there should still not be many major events in the summer. The election campaign is thus shifting even more to the

Internet

. Party strategists respond by spending more money on online advertising - and sometimes less on events and posters.