The words came from Emmanuel Macron himself, this Wednesday, June 16, in the middle of the Council of Ministers… for all intents and purposes: “There will be no consequence of the result of the regional meetings on the government.
I will not draw any national conclusion ”, reassured the President of the Republic in front of his family.
Those who fear a reshuffle after the election can therefore, a priori, sleep soundly.
But for insiders, the message is more subtle: "The very fact that he alludes to it is, on the contrary, a way of saying that we have every reason to be worried ..." commented with feverishness a member of the government .
In recent weeks, the rumor of a change of team in the aftermath of the regional elections has indeed been roaring from all sides.
All the more so ten months before the presidential election, some imagine an Emmanuel Macron tried to review his workforce before the home stretch.
At the Elysee Palace, officially, this hypothesis is qualified as "non-subject".
Around him, his supporters are however more discreet ... “The president never raises the question.
Which does not mean anything… and to say everything too ”, smiles a relative, specifying that he“ is not the type to remain inert ”.
But to modify in what extent?
With whom ?
A "need for new blood"?
For many, the question will rest on at least two assumptions.
The first, a need to adjust its device.
"He could consider that ministers are tired or not at the level, and there are.
In this case, we would start more on a readjustment than a reorganization ”, decrypts a member of the first circle.
The second, more political, would be linked to the new course he will set in a few weeks following his Tour de France.
"And so, a new team, with this need for new blood and more embodied personalities to carry with it the last big reforms", rebounds a parliamentarian.
With a central question in the middle, that of maintaining or not Jean Castex in Matignon.
Internally, the idea of his departure does not seem to be the most shared at this stage.
"He is happy with his Prime Minister, things are going better than with Philippe," said an elected official who has entered the Elysee Palace.
Others, on the contrary, consider the Prime Minister potentially weakened if the National Rally manages to reach regions.
“Particularly in Paca, where he personally got wet with this story of agreement with Muselier.
He will be accountable for the result ”, charges a minister.
The possibility of a "political earthquake"
What makes many say that the head of state will have a hard time dissociating the result of the elections from a possible change of government casting.
"If one, two or three regions go to the Front
(Editor's note: RN)
, we can say what we want, but it will be such a political earthquake that Macron will not be able to say that it has no impact, c 'is impossible, “annoys an advisor.
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Especially since the Head of State is well aware that the conclusions he will draw from this election, whatever he says, will inevitably have an impact on his possible re-election, after months of the Covid-19 crisis. “He has in mind the two precedents of 1945: the English who dismissed Churchill and the French who let de Gaulle leave. He therefore knows that an exit from the crisis, even successful, can cause him his downfall, translates an intimate. So he will be on the offensive to be in a position to turn the page if necessary ... so that the French are not turning it for him. "