The industry experts at the management consultancy AlixPartners do not expect sales figures like before the Corona crisis to return until 2025.
Europe is catching up in battery production - but suppliers are facing new problems.
Munich (dpa) - The doubling of raw material costs and the lack of electronic chips will slow down the recovery of the auto industry for years to come, according to a study by management consultancy AlixPartners.
Around 83 million cars are expected to be sold worldwide this year.
The record level of 94 million cars reached in 2018 will probably not be reached again until 2025.
The profit margins should reach the pre-crisis level again this year, said industry expert Jens Haas on Friday.
The reasons are austerity programs, high levels of government aid, "avoiding discount wars and the rapid recovery of the Chinese market".
Raw material costs rose by 92 percent
But raw material costs per vehicle have risen by 92 percent year-on-year to a record high of 3600 dollars.
For next year only a slight relaxation is expected.
"A return to the pre-crisis level is not yet in sight," because there is a lack of almost all important raw materials, explained the study authors.
The shortage of chips will lead to a loss of production of up to four million vehicles in Europe.
"Currently, orders from the end of 2020 will not be served until September this year." This leads to increased production stops in car factories worldwide.
The situation is not expected to ease until 2022.
For the study, they evaluated the balance sheets of more than 300 car manufacturers and suppliers.
More and more electric vehicles
The share of electric vehicles will grow to 23 percent worldwide by 2030, and even to 32 percent in Europe.
However, e-cars are still up to $ 11,000 more expensive than comparable combustion engines today, and the gap is only slowly getting smaller.
Without government subsidies, the sales targets could not be achieved, said Haas.
Battery production is an important reason for the higher costs of e-cars.
Pioneer China will expand its production capacity to 750 GWh by 2025.
However, Europe is catching up and will increase its capacity to 369 GWh.
"Almost half of European production is located in Germany." The global expansion will reduce costs.
Fewer orders for suppliers
One problem for the traditional suppliers of the car manufacturers is that the car companies need fewer components and are also taking more and more shares into their own hands.
In the case of electric drives, 50 percent of the value added worldwide would be produced by the manufacturers themselves or in joint ventures by 2025.
In the near future, the car manufacturers would also work more closely together on software development.
"Manufacturers are currently struggling to gain enough experience in time for the introduction of autonomous systems not only with components, but also with the development of software," explained the industry experts.
"The war for talents for the vehicle of the future will intensify further, since the big tech companies like Google or Facebook are no longer dependent on software developers, but car manufacturers need more and more engineers in this field."
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