The electoral potential of Eric Zemmour, who wonders about his possible presidential candidacy, is progressing, according to an Ifop poll, commissioned by Livre noir, an online media of the right outside the walls.
According to this study, which we reveal exclusively, carried out on a sample of 1,000 people from June 15 to 16, 18% of French people say they are ready to vote for the polemicist if he were a candidate (including 13% "probably" and 5% “definitely”).
This represents an increase of 5 points since the same survey, carried out for Valeurs Actuelles, in February 2021.
Be careful because electoral potential is not synonymous with voting intentions.
In this regard, an Ifop poll for Le Point has already been published on Wednesday and indicates that 5.5% of voters would vote Zemmour if the election took place next Sunday (in the event that Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Dupont- Aignan, Jean Lassalle, Jean-Frédéric Poisson and Xavier Bertrand would also be candidates).
48% of RN sympathizers would be ready to vote Zemmour
The electoral potential of Eric Zemmour, whose presidential desires are more and more frequently mentioned in the media, is highest among 18-24 year olds (23%, an increase of 14 points in this category in 4 months) and 50-64 year olds (22%). It is also in the popular categories that it is most important since 27% of respondents who earn less than 900 euros per month say they are ready to vote for him, against 11% among those who earn more than 2,500 euros. Note, Eric Zemmour, known for his not really feminist positions, has a much higher electoral potential among men (23%) than among women (14%).
In terms of partisan affiliation, 48% of RN sympathizers would be ready to vote Zemmour (38% among those who voted Marine Le Pen in the first round in 2017), far ahead of those on the right (21%) and those without sympathy partisan (15%).
"A challenge for Marine Le Pen"
However, in the poll on voting intentions, it is the right-wing electorate (14%) and not the RN (only 6%) which would constitute the bulk of the contingents of voters of a candidate Zemmour.
“This shows that for the moment, he is not taking voters in the RN.
But that there is indeed a temptation Zemmour in this electorate that looks at him, analyzes Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop.
It is therefore a challenge for Marine Le Pen to show that she is at the level in terms of stature, presidentiality so that her candidacy is not challenged ... "
According to the pollster, an electoral potential of 5% of French people who assure that they could "certainly" vote Zemmour (a figure which is close to the 5.5% of those polled in the other poll who assure that they would vote for him on Sunday next) "is not ridiculous" when compared to other non-party personalities already tested. Thus, 2% said they were certainly ready to vote for the philosopher Michel Onfray and 3% for Jean-Marie Bigard in May 2020. Only General Pierre de Villiers did better in November 2020 with 6%.