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Regional: why is abstention promising to be massive (once again)?

2021-06-22T12:28:15.403Z


Nearly 60% of French people could shun the ballot box this Sunday, during the first round of regional elections. It would be a record for a


The scene strongly marked him.

On the terrace of a restaurant in the Eure Monday, June 14, Jean-Paul Legendre, candidate for the departmental elections, shook several pairs of hands as he should in the middle of the electoral campaign.

“People I know would say,

oh well, are we voting in six days?

!

»Says the mayor of Iville, half astonished.

Deconfined, some French people are still unaware that they are called to the polls this Sunday, in the first round of departmental and regional elections which take place concomitantly.

More broadly, a majority of citizens intend to shun the voting booth, according to the latest opinion studies.

Abstention in the regional ballot could approach 60% in France, according to Ifop.

"This would give 28 million abstainers, which would never have happened for such a poll," points out Frédéric Dabi, the director general of the polling institute.

"We would vary between 55% and 62% depending on the territory, whereas previously we were rather around 50% at the national level", adds political scientist Olivier Rouquan.

Read alsoRegional elections: abstention, a fatality?

Meet these "disillusioned" French people

A glance at the past figures confirms this.

During the first round of regional and departmental 2015 (on separate dates), only one in two voters in France went to the polls.

It was a little less in the previous polls (respectively in 2010 and 2011) but we were still above 44% participation, so less than 56% abstention.

"Long trend"

The estimates for this 2021 vintage are part of a fairly strong trend of disenchantment with the ballot boxes. “Voting is still one of the preferred modes of public expression, but less and less. And it is a long trend which does not only concern local elections, as we saw in the legislative elections of 2017, ”points out Bruno Cautrès, researcher at the Research Center for French Political Life (CEVIPOF). Less than one in two French people voted in the first round to elect their deputy that year, nearly ten points less than in 2012. “This is something quite worrying, especially among young people, and this is symptomatic of the current democratic crisis, ”warns Frédéric Dabi. Since five years,the yellow vests and their weekly processions are surely the strongest illustration of this desire to mobilize differently.

Abstention from regional elections 

In practice, the current context does not necessarily lend itself to going to vote.

These two local elections, initially scheduled for March, were postponed at the end of June due to the health crisis.

Candidates fear that part of the French will have their heads elsewhere at the beginning of this deconfined summer, or even have already gone on vacation, without necessarily having thought of filling out a power of attorney.

“Either people still have their noses in the Covid, or they are already on vacation.

The few who think about politics are already planning for the presidential election, ”laments Jean-Paul Legendre.

“We are in a context of easing restrictions, people are rethinking the sweetness of life.

All this may encourage some not to vote, ”for his part Olivier Rouquan.

Fears of catching the Covid by going to the polling station, on the other hand, should play little since the health situation has improved markedly.

In this context, "one might think that going to vote would be a way of returning to normal life, but I find it hard to believe in such a citizen reflex", Judge Frédéric Dabi.

Who to benefit from it?

On the other hand, the fact that two elections take place on the same day could encourage some voters, initially interested in one or the other, to kill two birds with one stone.

"The idea may be to attract voters interested in only one of the ballots to the other, in which they had not necessarily initially planned to participate", summarizes Bruno Cautrès.

The impact should however be limited, regional and departmental not usually rallying the crowds.

Read also 2021 regional elections: what the polls say in each region

It remains to be seen who would benefit from a high abstention.

The National Rally (RN), which could come first in the first round in several regions, is often presented as the big beneficiary.

But this calls for caution, warns the Cevipof researcher: “If we assume that the electorate of the RN is very loyal, it is likely to remain very mobilized.

Where it is less simple is that it is sociologically composed of precarious workers and young people, who vote little.

"

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2021-06-22

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