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First round of regional: abstention, hot spots, national ambitions ... the major issues of the ballot

2021-06-23T08:23:27.496Z

The French are called to the polls this Sunday for the first round of regional and departmental, the last two elections org



One thing already seems certain on the eve of the first round of regional elections: the “winner” should be the abstention rate, reaching a historic record.

Around 60%, according to projections from polling institutes.

Record all categories of ballots combined.

Barring an improbable turnaround, this Sunday, June 20 at the polls, only the referendum of September 2000 on the establishment of the five-year term, for which barely three in ten French people had come, will have done worse.

It must be said that these elections occur when we do not have the impression of having seen a campaign.

The Covid-19 pandemic has dictated its rules, banning large meetings and reducing door to door to almost nothing.

The French have their heads elsewhere, between the return of sunny days with the reopening of the terraces and the end of the curfew, the economic revival which is pointing the edge of its nose and ... the Euro football.

A test before 2022

This election may have a primarily local vocation, it does not have less major national issues, the last step before the appointment of the presidential election in ten months.

In the camp of those who have everything to gain, the RN of Marine Le Pen dreams of ratifying its "normalization" with the capture of one or more regions, environmentalists intend to confirm their good electoral dynamic.

Among those who have a lot to lose, the Republicans are trying to remain the leading party in France, although undermined by their divisions and caught between LREM and RN.

And the PS crosses its fingers to keep the regions which remain to it, it which had succeeded the quasi grand slam in 2010. For the Walkers, who missed their territorial establishment, the question is to know if there will be a vote sanction to with regard to Emmanuel Macron.

Right or left, the most famous regional presidents, from Valérie Pécresse to Carole Delga, from Alain Rousset to Laurent Wauquiez or Xavier Bertrand, should benefit from a bonus for leavers inflated by abstention ... especially if they handled the pandemic well.

To help you find your way around, Le Parisien and Today in France offer you a tour of the regions with the latest surveys carried out during the campaign and all published before the start of the reserve period.

Please note that these surveys are not forecasts of results but, according to the formula, a snapshot of public opinion at the time they were carried out.

As for the second round, it is another election which starts, with its own dynamic, in particular around the question of the republican front.

THE FIVE REGIONS TO MONITOR

Among the hot spots of the ballot, five regions will see the results of the first round scrutinized on Sunday evening.

Paca: the RN at the gates of power

Marine Le Pen came to Toulon in the Var on Thursday to support Thierry Mariani who carries the hopes of the RN in Paca.

AFP / Christophe Simon CHRISTOPHE SIMON

The Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region is THE flagship region of the ballot, the standard of far-right ambitions and the mirror of the internal fractures of the right.

That the candidate RN Thierry Mariani - ex-UMP who was minister of Sarkozy - wins and it will be the signal of a successful trivialization of the party of Marine Le Pen, with a view to the presidential election next year.

Let him lose, and LREM will not fail to claim its part in the victory of LR Renaud Muselier, who made an alliance with the presidential party against the almost unanimous opinion of his political family.

The ballot in Paca embodies the unease of the Republicans, torn between LR and LREM. And in serious danger, the latest poll (Opinion Way for CNews) confirming a solid lead from Thierry Mariani over Renaud Muselier in the first round (43% against 33%). The left, credited with a meager 16% of voting intentions, will it help save the furniture by withdrawing (as in 2015 to block the road to Marion Maréchal) or by merging with him? Not sure that she is motivated: the poll indeed gives Thierry Mariani the winner in both a triangular and a duel (without the presence of the left).

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned.

These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period.

The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold. 

Hauts-de-France: the quits or double of Xavier Bertrand

The stake for Xavier Bertrand (here in Gauchin-Verloingt on June 11) is not only to win, since he has put his political career at stake, but also to establish himself as a natural candidate for the right for 2022. LP / Philippe de Poulpiquet

Hot spot, the Hauts-de-France are first as a symbol of the "nationalization" of this regional ballot.

The challenge for Xavier Bertrand is not only to win, since he has put his political career at stake, but to do it alone, without a second round agreement, in order to establish himself as a natural candidate for the right for 2022. In 2015, preceded by Marine Le Pen in the first round, he owed his victory to the withdrawal of the left which had played the Republican front.

Hot spot, then, because the RN remains in the race, Xavier Bertrand and Sébastien Chenu being sidelined - therefore within the margin of error of the polls - in the Opinion Way survey, at 33% and 32% respectively. 'voting intentions (even if the RN candidate is in decline compared to the dynamics of Marine Le Pen, boss of the FN, six years ago).

Thinking of the upcoming presidential match, we will scrutinize the score of LREM, where the Eric Dupond-Moretti effect made a splash: 11% for the list of Laurent Pietraszewski (Secretary of State in charge of Pensions). Big stake also for the united left (unique case in France) behind the ecologist Karima Delli (20%): it does not intend to deprive itself of seats in the regional council six more years. Clearly, Sunday night, the pressure may be strong on the Walkers - if they pass the fateful 10% mark - and the left. However, an Ipsos Sopra Steria poll of June 2 (for France Télévisions and Radio France) gave Xavier Bertrand the winner in the second round in both quadrangular and triangular (without LREM).

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned.

These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period.

The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold. 

Ile-de-France: the primary of the left

Valérie Pécresse, outgoing president, surrounded by Nathalie Arthaud (LO), Clémentine Autain (LFI), Julien Bayou (EELV), Audrey Pulvar (for the PS), Jordan Bardella (RN) and Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM), before the televised debate of the candidates in Ile-de-France, June 14.

AFP / Ludovic Marin

If there is a shock to be expected in the capital region, it concerns… the three lists on the left between them. Will environmentalists keep their momentum from the 2019 European elections and the 2020 municipal elections? The latest poll to date (Opinion Way) gives Julien Bayou a slight advantage (13%), ahead of Audrey Pulvar (PS) and Clémentine Autain (LFI), tied at 10%… not far from the eliminatory bar. Issue: the conduct of the list of a left gathered in the second round. The result Sunday evening in Ile-de-France will also have a national scope, revealing the balance of power on the left in view of the presidential election.

On the right, if the outgoing president Valérie Pécresse (Libres !, ex-LR) is the big favorite in the polls, in the first as in the second round (even against a reunified left), the size of her score will count in her other fight, that of the presidential election.

Not yet officially declared, she elbows on the occasion of these regional with Xavier Bertrand and Laurent Wauquiez to establish herself as champion of the right in the race for the Elysée.

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned.

These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period.

The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold. 

Grand-Est: the war of the rights

Jean Rottner, who wears the colors of a divided right, is followed by the candidate of the RN in the Grand-Est.

AFP / Sébastien Bozon

Suspense in the large region regrouping Alsace, Lorraine and Champagne-Ardenne, where the right is experiencing an internal war and the RN is at a high level.

In 2015, Florian Philippot, then head of the FN list, came first in the first round.

If the former right-hand man of Marine Le Pen is a little forgotten (his list “Freedom!” Is credited with 8%), his successor Laurent Jacobelli (25%) is following in the Ipsos Sopra Steria survey the president LR from the region, Jean Rottner (27%).

Suspense, because the LR family is divided: on the one hand Nadine Morano, emblematic figure of the local right, refuses to vote for a Jean Rottner whom she suspects of preparing an agreement with LREM and finds qualities - without rallying him - to Laurent Jacobelli.

On the other hand, some Republicans lean for the Marchers candidate Brigitte Klinkert (14%), Minister (delegate for Integration) of Emmanuel Macron and defector of LR.

With 14%, in the poll, the divided left does not seem able to weigh.

According to Ipsos, a quadrangular could propel the RN candidate for the presidency on June 27 (32% against 29% for the LR list).

Under pressure from Laurent Jacobelli, will Jean Rottner make an alliance - despite his repeated denials - with Brigitte Klinkert?

Storm under LR skulls in sight ...

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned.

These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period.

The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold. 

Bourgogne Franche-Comté: Marine Le Pen's other hope

Julien Odoul, head of the RN list in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, leads the last poll (Ipsos-Sopra Steria), given at 28%.

AFP / Sébastien Bozon

A little passed under the media radars, the region is nevertheless one of the big chances for the RN, already ranked third in a pocket handkerchief in 2015. Its champion, Julien Odoul, turns at the top of the last poll (Ipsos Sopra Steria), given at 28%, far ahead of outgoing president Marie-Guite Dufay at the head of a PS-PCF list (21%) tied with the Republican Gilles Platret.

The LREM list comes fourth with 16% of voting intentions.

Will she merge for the second round to block the road to the National Rally?

Not obvious, because, on his right, the LR candidate has already rallied the sovereignists of Debout France, and on his left Marie-Guite Dufay insists that she "leads a left list, period".

We could therefore move towards a high-risk quadrangular.

According to Ipsos projections, the outgoing president could narrowly win ahead of the Lepéniste candidate (32% against 29%), if she manages to bring together under her leadership the ecologists of Europe Ecology - the Greens and the rebels.

But, given the margin of error of the polls, the potential results of Marie-Guite Dufay and Julien Odoul are very close.

Everything is possible.

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned.

These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period.

The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold. 

IN OTHER REGIONS

Only candidates who reach or exceed the 10% mark required to hold on to the second round are mentioned. These surveys were all published prior to the entry into force of the reserve period. The name of the outgoing president, if he represents himself, is indicated in bold.

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2021-06-23

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