On the eve of the first round of the regional elections on Sunday, June 20, the deputy director general of the Ipsos polling institute, Brice Teinturier, analyzes the stakes of the ballot - which risks experiencing a record abstention rate - for the main political forces.
Should we expect a strong abstention on Sunday?
BRICE DYE MAKER.
We are moving towards a historic abstention, of the order of 60%, not only higher than the regional ones of 2015, where it was 50%, but also higher than those of 2010 (53.7%).
A completely new level, for many reasons.
There is first of all the general climate of exit from the pandemic which means that the French do not have the lead in regional elections, but in vacations or economic recovery.
And then the massive ignorance of the candidates and the great confusion with the departmental do not help to mobilize.
Finally, the French have the feeling that these elections will not change their daily lives, that they are secondary to the presidential election which comes in a year.
Who could this benefit?
The outgoing presidents have a clear advantage.
They are better known than their opponents and the French rather credit them with good results, at 65%.
In addition, we note that the electorates of the PS, environmentalists and rebellious France are less mobilized than the average, unlike those of LR, LREM and RN, who should vote more.
Will the National Rally be the big winner in these elections?
At the national level, we expect an RN in the 25% zone.
It would be a good result, but which would remain lower than his exceptional score in 2015 when he obtained 28.4% of the vote in mainland France, his best level.
But if he manages to tip a region, such as Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or even two, the reading of the ballot will be different: even with a declining national score, this would be a fundamental step for this party and would confirm a very good base for Marine Le Pen for the presidential election.
Should LREM and its allies fear a sanction vote?
This is not really the mechanics of these elections. First, because voters tell us that they will vote taking into account the regional situation (64%) rather than the national situation (36%). It is 20 points less for the national than in 2015! Then, because the will to sanction the executive is also less important than in 2015 and 2010, and there are no regional councils held by LREM to bring down. Finally, because we see, at the end of the pandemic, satisfaction with the management of Covid-19, which has jumped by 15 points. Still, the LREM lists will be far behind those of LR and RN, reflecting a real lack of local presence. The presidential party will, despite everything, have a decisive role in the in-between rounds depending on the alliances, mergers and withdrawals it will make.
Read also Regional elections: LREM facing the puzzle of the Republican front
For LR, can we speak of primary before the hour?
First, and it is important to underline it, the LRs should score well at the national level: around 26%. They could even come back in front of the RN. As LREM will be much less powerful than in presidential hypotheses, we will once again measure the existence and importance of the right, at least at the local level. But this good result could be completely obscured if the LRs lose one or more of their seven regions. These elections will also obviously revive the question of their presidential candidate. Xavier Bertrand, who has already started, should be reelected in Hauts-de-France. And outgoing presidents, such as Valérie Pécresse in Ile-de-France and Laurent Wauquiez in Auvergne - Rhône-Alpes, who do not hide their ambitions, await their probable re-election to possibly declare themselves.
What can the PS and environmentalists hope for?
As for the Republicans, the challenge of the PS, which highlights its local presence, will be to keep the five regions it holds.
Without this, it will be even more difficult to present itself as a formation of the future.
If the socialists lost a region and if the environmentalists won one (for example, the Pays de la Loire), it would symbolically give the environmentalists an advantage.
But the reality is that these two formations do not really have the wind in their sails in this first round of the regional ones.