The Landratsamt has the Herrsching Gymnasium offset against overly optimistic population forecasts: this is the charge made by a lawyer whose clients want to prevent the school from going to the Mühlfeld.
The authority explains the numbers and clears up misunderstandings.
- The Munich Administrative Court rejected both petitions against the Mühlfeld high school in Herrsching last year. Efforts to prevent the school from being built at this point continue to exist. Dr. Martin Schröder, lawyer from Landshut, has been representing two owners with a total of four properties in the vicinity of Panoramastraße since 2019. He and his clients warned the community of "strong stratified water flows". They see the danger that either too much water will run off on the slope through the grammar school and the property threatens to dry out - or that the "bar" will cause a water backlog. Details that Schröder only explains on request. Because he is currently dealing with an investigation commissioned by the district, which he describes as a "courtesy report". His accusation:The planning is based on unrealistic population forecasts. The district office sees it very differently.
The lawyer was startled by the number 25,440. That is how many more people will live in the Starnberg district in 2037 - at least if you assume the so-called net immigration and the calculation of the external economic area planning association (PV) and the Institute for Social Planning, Youth and Elderly Welfare , Health Research and Statistics (SAGS). That would mean that in 16 years there will be another city, even a little bigger than Starnberg. But you have to put the number into perspective - if only because it assumes “high immigration”. A very optimistic forecast, so to speak.
Schröder could not rely on details in his doubts about the number; according to district office spokesman Stefan Diebl, the study will not be finished until autumn and then published on the authority's website.
The interim report on the school requirement forecast was, however, a topic in the district committees at the end of April.
The 25,440 more inhabitants were served in the meetings in a striking way.
In this context, the lawyer noticed that the State Office for Statistics (LfS) only certifies the district to have around 5,000 more residents by 2037.
A discrepancy that made him prick up his ears.
The “regionalized population projection” of the LfS from December 2020 also only predicts an increase of “a few hundred” for children and young people.
The LfS forecast is a model calculation based on trend extrapolations from the last few years. "Location-specific factors are not taken into account", emphasizes district office spokesman Diebl. The two numbers (5000 and 25,440) and thus the terms population development and net immigration cannot be directly compared. “The forecast net immigration reflects the expected difference between immigration and immigration. However, this does not correspond to the absolute population development. This is also influenced by demographic processes such as births and deaths, ”says Diebl. The net influx has an impact on population development.
The spokesman explains: “Young families are more strongly represented in the immigration than in the general population. The baby boom cohorts in the second half of the 1930s to 1944 will also continue to have an impact on a so-called death surplus. ”At this point there are a number of other factors such as the housing, real estate or labor market. All of these are interactions that PV and SAGS have taken into account. In addition, there are “site-specific factors. Concrete plans for settlement development in the municipalities were included in consultation with the respective building authorities ”.
The LfS figures were known very well, says Diebl when asked. However, they were created “on the basis of a significantly lower information density”. The study by the two social science institutes commissioned represents “a more precise picture of the expected migration movements”. And one must also consider the scenario of “reduced migration” (the less optimistic variant). In this case the number differs from that of the state office by only a few hundred people. As of June 2020, the district had around 136,500 inhabitants. By the way: According to the LfS, he even lost some from 2019 to 2020 - even if only 57. However, according to Diebl, the population growth is less important than the development in school-relevant age groups:"The school requirement forecast for 2021 once again confirmed the need for a Herrsching grammar school."