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Alert in the ruling party and the opposition: they would lose seats in their electoral strongholds

2021-06-25T02:33:17.202Z

It is because the Government will unify the lists headed by Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa in 2017 in the Province. The same thing happens to Cambiemos en Capital with those of Elisa Carrió and Martín Lousteau.



Guido Carelli Lynch

06/19/2021 8:31 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 06/19/2021 8:31 PM

Unity is what the partners of Together for Change publicly demand, while they fight in private and exchange statements.

Unity is what the Frente de Todos promises in the face of the campaign after numerous public outrages among the coalition allies.

It is often said that the union is by force, but in two key districts - the Province and the City - the ruling party and the main opposition force acknowledge that

they will not be able to get the numbers and the legislators

they obtained in 2017, when they were separately.

This lag will stress the closure of lists and force resignations in pursuit of the aforementioned unity.

In the Capital, the numbers speak for themselves.

Elisa Carrió

, who now threatens to compete in the Province, swept away four years ago with 51 percent of the votes.

One of his rivals,

Martín Lousteau

, who two years later would once again be his political partner, got 12 percent of the vote.

They added a total of 63 points.

Separately, they harvested (8 and 2)

10 national deputies for the City

, in addition to 20 local legislators.

Those figures are

unattainable

today

.

In the Headquarters of Government they already made the numbers.

"We put 20 seats at stake and we will get 16 or 17. We will lose at least two national deputies and making a bad choice, three," says a gravitating leader of the Buenos Aires ruling party in the Legislature, where

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is

committed to maintaining his own quorum.

Some of the partners will have to resign seats in pursuit of unity.

"

Who will lose

?

The PRO, as always ”, acknowledges with a smile a bishop of the party founded by

Mauricio Macri

.

To the natural inter-party tension is added the internal one of each faction.

From the head of the lists that are disputed by the head of Government and the former president to the rest of the legislators.

The equation is reversed on the other side of General Paz, in the supposed

mother of all battles

.

In 2017,

Cristina Kirchner

got 37 percent of the votes and lost by four points to

Esteban Bullrich

.

However, when the votes that

Sergio Massa's

list dragged

(11%) are added, they complete

48 percent

of the vote cake.

The Frente de Todos now puts

16 seats

into play

(14 from Unidad Ciudadana and 4 from 1País, which lost one when

Jorge Sarghini

joined

Graciela Camaño's

bloc

).

Massa is excited about retaining nearly the same number of voters globally.

Some of his allies are more cautious.

“The pandemic changes everything.

Any calculation with 2017 is to compare very different situations.

We aspire to maintain a

solid majority

that, after the economic crisis, the result of the pandemic and macrismo;

It would be a

great choice

”, they recognize in the surroundings of one of the participants of the

political table on Mondays

in the Buenos Aires Government.

The discussion about the places -which could be reduced- will have as protagonists the mayors, the massismo, La Cámpora and also the Evita Movement, which in 2017 played with

Florencio Randazzo

.

Despite the internal fights for the candidacies in the Province, the most optimistic in Together for Change aspire to repeat the performance of 2017. In their favor;

the composition of Cambiemos en la Provincia is similar to that of the current JxC, which is negotiating to expand.

Against their purpose, for now, they have the most polls.

"We are going to get 41 percent,"

enthuses a PRO mayor who plays hard in the provincial intern.

The fate of a

third way

 -which Randazzo seeks to build today, plus the performance of the left and the possibility that celestial and right-wing factions do not end up contained in Together for Change- will play a preponderant role for the electoral result.

Polarization can limit it.

The balance in the Buenos Aires Legislature will vary.

JxC puts its

majority

at stake

in the provincial Senate

.

The unit, on the other hand, could serve to strengthen its block in the Buenos Aires lower house, decimated by internal fractures.

The ruling party, for its part, aspires to take away

control of the Senate

and to get the extra seat it needs to have a

majority and a quorum in Deputies.

The Frente de Todos hopes to compensate for the possible loss of two or three seats in the province - which it could suffer even if it wins the elections - in other districts.

The Capital is one of them.

There, the

Daniel Filmus

ballot

in 2017 garnered

21.7% 

of the votes equivalent to 3 deputies, but Massa's candidate,

Matías Tombolini,

did not reach 5 percent and was left out of Congress.

Now, the FdT porteño shipowners hope to substantially improve the election and stay as close as possible to the

31 percent

they achieved in 2019.

In the national ruling party they do not lose hope of getting the

10 extra seats they need

to have their own quorum in the lower house without depending on circumstantial allies.

They seek to regain ground in the central area of ​​the country, a stronghold of JxC.

They trust in recovering land

with vaccines,

the aforementioned unity, the reactivation of construction (through public works and housing) and measures such as the subsidy to cold areas that include the Cuyo region and the interior of Cordoba, elusive for Peronism .

They also trust that JxC will not be able to repeat "

the yellow wave

" - in the words of

Juan Manuel Urtubey

from Salta 

-

of 2017 in several provinces. 

The cost of the unit is also measured in benches for the officialdom in the first and fourth electoral districts of the country: a mass of 16 million voters,

50 percent of the entire country.

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-06-25

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