Guido Carelli Lynch
06/19/2021 8:31 PM
Updated 06/19/2021 8:31 PM
Unity is what the partners of Together for Change publicly demand, while they fight in private and exchange statements.
Unity is what the Frente de Todos promises in the face of the campaign after numerous public outrages among the coalition allies.
It is often said that the union is by force, but in two key districts - the Province and the City - the ruling party and the main opposition force acknowledge that
they will not be able to get the numbers and the legislators
they obtained in 2017, when they were separately.
This lag will stress the closure of lists and force resignations in pursuit of the aforementioned unity.
In the Capital, the numbers speak for themselves.
, who now threatens to compete in the Province, swept away four years ago with 51 percent of the votes.
One of his rivals,
, who two years later would once again be his political partner, got 12 percent of the vote.
They added a total of 63 points.
Separately, they harvested (8 and 2)
10 national deputies for the City
, in addition to 20 local legislators.
Those figures are
In the Headquarters of Government they already made the numbers.
"We put 20 seats at stake and we will get 16 or 17. We will lose at least two national deputies and making a bad choice, three," says a gravitating leader of the Buenos Aires ruling party in the Legislature, where
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is
committed to maintaining his own quorum.
Some of the partners will have to resign seats in pursuit of unity.
Who will lose
The PRO, as always ”, acknowledges with a smile a bishop of the party founded by
To the natural inter-party tension is added the internal one of each faction.
From the head of the lists that are disputed by the head of Government and the former president to the rest of the legislators.
The equation is reversed on the other side of General Paz, in the supposed
mother of all battles
got 37 percent of the votes and lost by four points to
However, when the votes that
(11%) are added, they complete
of the vote cake.
The Frente de Todos now puts
(14 from Unidad Ciudadana and 4 from 1País, which lost one when
Massa is excited about retaining nearly the same number of voters globally.
Some of his allies are more cautious.
“The pandemic changes everything.
Any calculation with 2017 is to compare very different situations.
We aspire to maintain a
that, after the economic crisis, the result of the pandemic and macrismo;
It would be a
”, they recognize in the surroundings of one of the participants of the
political table on Mondays
in the Buenos Aires Government.
The discussion about the places -which could be reduced- will have as protagonists the mayors, the massismo, La Cámpora and also the Evita Movement, which in 2017 played with
Despite the internal fights for the candidacies in the Province, the most optimistic in Together for Change aspire to repeat the performance of 2017. In their favor;
the composition of Cambiemos en la Provincia is similar to that of the current JxC, which is negotiating to expand.
Against their purpose, for now, they have the most polls.
"We are going to get 41 percent,"
enthuses a PRO mayor who plays hard in the provincial intern.
The fate of a
-which Randazzo seeks to build today, plus the performance of the left and the possibility that celestial and right-wing factions do not end up contained in Together for Change- will play a preponderant role for the electoral result.
Polarization can limit it.
The balance in the Buenos Aires Legislature will vary.
JxC puts its
in the provincial Senate
The unit, on the other hand, could serve to strengthen its block in the Buenos Aires lower house, decimated by internal fractures.
The ruling party, for its part, aspires to take away
control of the Senate
and to get the extra seat it needs to have a
majority and a quorum in Deputies.
The Frente de Todos hopes to compensate for the possible loss of two or three seats in the province - which it could suffer even if it wins the elections - in other districts.
The Capital is one of them.
in 2017 garnered
of the votes equivalent to 3 deputies, but Massa's candidate,
did not reach 5 percent and was left out of Congress.
Now, the FdT porteño shipowners hope to substantially improve the election and stay as close as possible to the
they achieved in 2019.
In the national ruling party they do not lose hope of getting the
10 extra seats they need
to have their own quorum in the lower house without depending on circumstantial allies.
They seek to regain ground in the central area of the country, a stronghold of JxC.
They trust in recovering land
the aforementioned unity, the reactivation of construction (through public works and housing) and measures such as the subsidy to cold areas that include the Cuyo region and the interior of Cordoba, elusive for Peronism .
They also trust that JxC will not be able to repeat "
the yellow wave
" - in the words of
Juan Manuel Urtubey
of 2017 in several provinces.
The cost of the unit is also measured in benches for the officialdom in the first and fourth electoral districts of the country: a mass of 16 million voters,
50 percent of the entire country.