Ignacio Zuleta
06/20/2021 7:13 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 06/20/2021 7:13 PM
Neither the candidates nor the handouts decide the vote
The pre-election vertigo fueled by polls and speculation turns this turn into an open poker game.
This variety of the deck values audacity more than the ability to scam and reflect.
An inadequate climate to understand the electoral processes in Argentina
, which are staggeringly stable, and which do not depend on the campaign martingales.
It is difficult to mount speculation looking at the results of the legislative elections since the transition.
In a state of normality, the non-Peronist vote reaches 40%. It is not enough to win, unless the other 40%, which can be collected by unified Peronism, is divided
. It is not chimerical to imagine it, because it has happened in the '80s (renewal and orthodoxy), in the' 90s (Peronism and Frepasism) and in the last decade, with the phenomenon of re-renewal that the De Narváez-Macri arch represented. Massa, etc.
It is a fantasy to believe that by dropping coins from the sky (as Bing Crosby sang in "Pennies from Heaven") or vaccinating even the stones, the stability of the electorate is modified.
There is no macrista or radical Martian who votes for Peronism because of a prick
that, in addition, he believes that the Government owed him. Neither does the Peronist from the suburbs who charges their leaders for poverty or the plague in the ballot box. He was able to do it before and he hasn't.
The decision to vote, for better or for worse, is firmer than politicians believe.
Nor can you modify the final table by adding one or the other candidate, unless it is one of those that divide and can reverse a result.
But in unit formats, improve it?
It's hard.
The public would like the vote to change reality.
Campaign fantasies seek to take advantage of that illusion that collides with a mysterious rationality that is difficult to move.
Larreta witches strategies in the Province
It is important to retain this hypothesis when casting candidates. The opposition hangs on the fence with the appearance of
Facundo Manes
as a proto candidate for national deputy in Buenos Aires, to confront a Peronism that does not have something similar on the grid, at least in the Christian format.
It agglomerates radicalism and precipitates gestures of unity in the PRO
.
Virtual politics forces one-on-one negotiations, and precipitates unexpected encounters. Like the surprise appearance last Friday in Olavarría of
Jorge Macri
in a meeting of
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
with a batch of PRO mayors. They are faced with the bid for who should head the list of deputies. Larreta supports
Diego Santilli
with the argument that he must expand the territory for his presidential project. Cousin Jorge repeated to him in that meeting that it is to
advance the fight of 2023
, that they are not thinking of an exit for the province of Buenos Aires, and that the candidate of the porteños does not have a place there.
Larreta is used to surprises and was not excited by the claim
.
He went out, to use a hackneyed figure, by the third way.
Let's seek unity, let's reconcile.
The appearance of Manes is a fuel for the PRO unit.
Larreta moves like someone who is willing to review Santilli's nomination if, in an arbitration of polls, Manes turns out to be a better candidate.
Leadership test in opposition summit
Mauricio Macri
brings these same axes to the meeting of the JxC national table this Wednesday, in person and in Palermo, as always:
1) Let's get out of fights.
2) Let's get together in a strategy of defense of values, because the tactics of each one can divide us.
3) Let's not fast-forward to 2023. This is a legislative election to keep or increase the number in Congress.
The former president understands that
Larreta is advancing 2023 with tactical movements that promote divisions
, as occurs in Buenos Aires, Córdoba or Santa Fe. At this point he shares the anger of
Elisa Carrió
, whom the head of government visited with Santilli and Vidal in Exaltation and crowned as the architect of the unit.
Hours passed and she was lowered as a candidate instead of Santilli.
For JxC, it is a mistake not to attend to Lilita's strategic perceptions, who today calls for unity.
He overcame a family misfortune this week, and
retaliated
: he received on Thursday for a grilled salmon lunch Facundo Manes and Maxi Abad, head of the Buenos Aires radicals.
He repeated to them that he continues to fight for unity, and that he does not withdraw from any candidacy.
Manes cannot escape, when he has these meetings, from being asked medical questions.
Lilita told him about some ailments and he prescribed some directions
.
It is expected, it has happened to other doctors who landed in politics.
It is a tradition.
Alberto Cormillot was the minister of Antonio Cafiero and Carlos Grosso, Claudio Zinn of Daniel Scioli, Eduardo Lorenzo was a Borocoteado deputy from Macrismo to Peronism.
René Favaloro, in whose mirror Manes looks at himself, knew how to avoid a charge.
The last straw was the governor-doctor of San Juan, Alfredo Avelín, who before discussing politics in his office
subjected visitors to a blood pressure record
.
Journey to the bottom of the other Peronism
Manes has prepared a zoom for these hours with mayors of radicalism: he will
mobilize 31
. The summit of Olavarría, cut according to an appointment that
Guillermo Montenegro
(Mar del Plata) and
Julio Garro
(La Plata) concocted, has already gathered about twenty. It is understandable that Peronism is concerned about the concentration of mayors of a coalition that does not have a leader or campaign command, and that does not have the anchor of a government that feeds the backpack for that campaign.
There are other movements that agitate the ligustrina, such as
the third way randacista
.
It motivated a pilgrimage from Larreta to San Miguel, where he had lunch with
Joaquín de la Torre
, a former Vidalista minister, who is another character in search of an author.
It was in the Indios estate, where
Miguel Pichetto
launched Republican Peronism two months ago.
De la Torre supports the hypothesis that the opposition to the ruling Peronism in Buenos Aires has won legislative elections
when two conditions were met
:
1) The list was headed by a Peronist or compatible (De Narváez 2009).
2) Peronism was divided (Massa, Randazzo, 2013, 2017).
If this opposition wants to have a destiny, it has to put a Peronist from the Province at the head.
It is not Santilli, it is not Manes.
De la Torre would only play in that space if those conditions were met.
If not, he told Larreta, he is already talking to the people of
Florencio Randazzo
, who may also be the head of a schism in Peronism.
In those sand tables of San Miguel the cables are joined, because Pichetto, De la Torre's interlocutor, is convinced that the Randacista move is a
letter from the Government to get votes from the opposition
.
De la Torre repeated the arguments to Macri, whom he visited in Vicente López's offices last Monday, before Mauricio left for Mendoza.
Cristina deputy in the casting of the ruling party
Peronism has put, Manes would say, the stethoscope to these movements, due to the difficulty in maintaining unity and stopping competitive candidates on the field.
Daniel Scioli
warms up in the polls;
Sergio Berni
is the chance for gunman Peronism, which offers a speech on security that is surrounded by opposition figures who have gained prestige in that business. To give an obvious name,
Patricia Bullrich
.
When she was Macri's minister, she led image polls over her colleagues.
When he appears in public, the police officers frame him in recognition of his authority
. It is something that has been seen in very few former ministers who were in charge of security, such as Enrique Nosiglia or Carlos Corach. They went through the post and have retained a certain role of the "police state."
Outside of Scioli and Berni, there are no figures at the top of the list that seem competitive and do not divide. In the sand months of the opposition there is speculation about the final maneuver that Cristina has to reverse a negative result in the elections.
To be the first candidate for national deputy herself
. A reply that conforms to Macri's candidacy for a seat of deputy for the CABA.
A duel in the sun Cristina vs. Macri.
In 2009 his party invented the yeite of testimonial candidacies: to push an election using the name.
She is a unit, but Nestor's experience that year was a disaster.
De Narváez beat him. He did not listen to one of
Eduardo Duhalde's
advice
: never let all the enemies come together in front of you at the same time. It is absurd to think today that it is not testimonial. If she were to become a deputy, she would claim the presidency of the Chamber and move the only platform that
Sergio Massa
has
. It would generate a crisis at the top of power that would only remedy a return of Sergio to the head of the Cabinet. It would involve betting everything without the certainty of winning.
But when politicians see the abyss, they grab the bug with their hand
.
The other weakness: the specter of schism
The proselytizing fabrications
cover the Kirchner family with a power that it does not have
, but they do not explain the failure in the 2019 presidential candidacy, or for the projects that it promotes to have a path in Congress, beyond the sanctions in the Senate.
This Cristina hanging by the brush can lose weight, like her government, in the two years that follow until 2023.
A failure in the elections in the province of Buenos Aires would be a lethal sign.
Peronism in the district is going - as the doctors say - already a schism.
To the point that
Máximo Kirchner
has not wanted to assume the presidency of the provincial PJ for fear that the division will be formalized.
Fernando Gray and Eduardo Duhalde lead the rejection of that application
.
The mayor of Echeverría is the
head of a sector of mayors
who, among other claims, would like to have the legal veto on reelections lifted.
The former president is the benchmark of a
sociological Peronism, which can be expressed at the polls
if Pichetto's Republican Peronism reaches territorial muscle, or if Randazzo's third way leaves the gaseous state that vents through the Province.
Cristina: extreme and pure caciquismo present
Christianity is a lower stage of Kirchnerism, which was already little.
A CT scan reveals its limits:
1)
It is a model of extreme caciquismo that establishes an abysmal distance between the chiefdoms -Néstor, later Cristina- and the rest
.
There are no second or third lines with quality or own weight.
The format prevents him from forming competitive casts that are equal to the strength of Peronism.
Between her and Parrilli there are no intermediate stations
. The referents are allies, employees or regrets without their own flight, or who have renounced to exercise it. In the province of Buenos Aires, none of the so-called "campers" - a euphemism that ignores who Héctor Cámpora was - could head a list of deputies who can fight it by contributing more votes than the unified Peronism already has since 2019. Yes the ruling party is won by the hypothesis of a defeat, the ghosts of division may reappear.
2)
It is a tribe traversed by an original weakness -
losing an election to Menem in 2003 - that it has not been able to overcome. The power it has is concentrated in the province of Buenos Aires, but it has not been enough for Cristina to give her the candidacy for president. He is a quota-partisan of a trident in power, along with Alberto and Massa. This weakness is hidden by taking advantage of the Tumbera fascination that dominates the AMBA towards Peronism, and which is the basis of phenomena such as Menemism or Kirchnerism. They are two manifestations of Peronism created for the metropolitan area, to make the neighbors believe that they are a left force. They have not convinced how to win elections in CABA, and they are brands that have not existed outside of that orography, except in La Rioja or Santa Cruz.
Pablo Gerchunoff
, who has a look at politics from the reverse of the plot, has rightly discussed the need to "pay attention to the weakness of Kirchnerism, as they perceived it." They -Néstor, Cristina- "never stopped feeling threatened, and that made it more difficult for them to think in the long term.
Kirchnerism was pure present
, all the time" ("The coin in the air: Conversations [with Roy Hora] on Argentina and its history of unforeseeable futures ", Ed. Siglo XII, 2021, p. 279/80).