06/20/2021 6:00 AM
Updated 06/20/2021 6:00 AM
At his home in Palermo, while he was projecting his own measurements, the landline of a pollster who usually works for the Casa Rosada rang insistently. The woman listened and knew at the time that the voiceover triggered a public opinion poll. A pollster about to be surveyed.
"If it were for ethics, I shouldn't answer," he
thought, but curiosity got the better of him and he dove into the questionnaire. Fifteen minutes in front of questions about being present in schools, about the shutdown of the economy, about health policy and vaccination, about the image and the intention to vote of politicians of all colors and also about
false electoral scenarios
, like when they asked him if he would vote for Nicolás Trotta. The woman went to the end and was left with the feeling that the questions had come out of Jaime Durán Barba's head.
It's possible. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta frequently receives jobs from four pollsters and he has not interrupted his dialogue with the Ecuadorian strategist. He is one of the leaders most attached to polls and focus groups. In these hours, he analyzes the first results of a mega job he commissioned to find out to what extent it is beneficial for the space - and especially for him - that María Eugenia Vidal faces Patricia Bullrich in an intern in the City. So far the numbers reassure him. But one thing is the figures and another is
the political storm that has been unleashed in Together for Change
, which for the first time threatens its transition to the presidential candidacy of 2023.
Just a few months ago, no one questioned him or complicated his strategy. The scene changed dramatically for him. Bullrich has accumulated popularity in the Buenos Aires electorate and has no plans to defect, and in the province of Buenos Aires the figure of Facundo Manes has just emerged.
Neither Bullrich nor Manes represent him
: Larreta wants candidates who have his imprint and are the basis of his presidential project. In other words, he wants to anticipate the internal fight for 2023. Bullrich and Manes have conjurers who stand in their way. Macri, on the one hand, and the leadership of the UCR, on the other. Macri and radicalism think the opposite of Larreta: they prefer to postpone the presidential discussion for two years. "We are not in an easy moment, sometimes they play us dirty," says a Larretista official.
He tells it after cutting off a communication with a macrista operator who told him that Macri has
more desire than ever for a rematch in 2023
and that he would even feel comfortable with a STEP in which those who want to sign up. The UCR is already annotated. Gerardo Morales wants to compete. Alfredo Cornejo does not rule it out. Manes, much less. The neuroscientist does not disembark in politics to be a legislator: he dreams of a triumph that will catapult him as an option. And there are also those who encourage Lousteau, even if it is not as extra pressure to larretismo, which - if Vidal's nomination is specified - could break the unwritten pact with Lousteau to pave his way to succession in the City.
In the midst of this game of speculation, polling war and media operations - not without vanities - the mayor plans to speak in the next few hours with Vidal, who will arrive today from his tour of the United States. Together they will evaluate how, where and with what arguments they will present their candidacy for deputy for the City of Buenos Aires. The speech occupies a good section of your deliberations. They will have to explain how a former governor
ignores the land where she sought re-election
less than two years ago. Argentina is used to leaders who represent a different territory from the one where they were born, and especially to the jumps from one side to the other of General Paz (Carlos Ruckauf, Daniel Scioli, Graciela Fernández Meijide and Axel Kicillof, among others the most famous cases), although Vidal faces an unprecedented double pirouette. She was vice-mayor of Buenos Aires, then governor, and now she would return to the City. That, at least, they had agreed with the head of government until she got on the plane to Washington.
It remains to be seen what countenance he returns with. One of her main advisers does not rule out that she gets out of the competition, disenchanted with her own allies who, according to the adviser, do not stop harassing her, with conflicting interests. It would not be good news for Larreta if he avoided the fight. Macri asked him on Thursday by chat to convince her to remain in the province. So has Martín Lousteau. The senator has no sympathy with Bullrich, but agrees with her that Vidal's jump responds more to a whim than to a strategy that benefits everyone.
"It is ridiculous to think that I handle María Eugenia,"
For those who dedicate hours to the exegesis of space, Vidal's indecision is the cause of the shock in the opposition. They speak of a bad reading. "
If Horacio and I are in the same space, they all align,
" said Vidal, not so long ago, in their private meetings. Elisa Carrió later joined that tandem. The alliance between them remains firm, beyond Carrió's reaction on Twitter, where she said she was tired of being abused by the PRO. The criticism pointed to Macri. The former president called her through a collaborator. The conversation started badly and ended worse. "They don't know how to do politics," he told them.
Larreta called her hours later.
“I don't want to be used.
I want the unity of the front in the face of the disaster that we are seeing ”, he affirmed.
Larreta works for Lilita to accompany Diego Santilli on the Buenos Aires ticket.
He is convinced to face Manes.
To Carrió the intern seems unnecessary.
That it does not end there, because Jorge Macri has already warned that he will fight, the same - although with less firepower - as Emilio Monzó.
There is a strong point of contention there between Larreta and Carrió.
Lilita believes that her allies do not take a real dimension of what is happening in the country.
When he chatted with Larreta a few hours ago he had returned from the Chacarita cemetery.
He went to see off the remains of a first cousin whom he loved very much.
She was impressed with the number of funerals.
The public reappearance of Cristina, far from conglomerating Together for Change, seemed to alter the spirits. Those who see her weak are emboldened. They believe that the cocktail of bad news facing the Government will not be able to be resolved before September and they are excited to win in their stronghold and change the opposition map towards 2023.
Who will be the face of that eventual triumph? That is what appears in dance.
It does not sound, however, too cautious. The most enthusiastic should review what they said in 2019 and how the story ended.
The vice president is really concerned with the reports that come to her. Not only because of the measurements, but because of what his most faithful collaborators and mayors collect in the Conurbano. The desolation due to the lack of employment, due to the persistent drop in trades, due to insecurity and the rise in prices is noticeable in poor districts and not so much. The image of Alberto Fernández touches very low levels and Cristina is
the only one who retains the hard voter
, estimated at around 35 points. He spoke to them on his comeback Monday. But she will not be a candidate.
Cristina begins to model her appearances and her words. They are never random.
say her disciples at La Cámpora, to make a difference with the President. That preparation already revealed the first mutation of Cristina. When he said that political differences had to be put aside due to the pandemic, he was giving an edge. Fernán Quirós praised the phrase. "He is one of those who understood what I meant," Cristina returned privately.
A month after the closing of lists, the head of the Frente de Todos begins to change her skin. A classic.
"Is the good Cristina coming back?"
, celebrate the most acidic. The Government will open the coffers. It is always better to print tickets than to lose an election. Macri has already warned that what is coming will be all or nothing. He believes that if Kirchnerism prevailed, opponents would be at risk. With him at the head. The first impulse, he maintains, would be to put him behind bars.