The abstention in the first round of the regional elections might well have been announced on a massive scale, but we did not expect what must be called a democratic catastrophe.
It was estimated this Sunday evening at 8 p.m. at 66.1% according to Ipsos Sopra Steria.
Clearly, two out of three voters shunned the ballot box: an absolute record - excluding referendum - under the Fifth Republic.
"A democracy without voters is no longer really a democracy", cracked Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the Insoumis, in tune with political leaders on the right and on the left.
We can comment on the explanations, plead for French people tired by months of health crisis, having their minds elsewhere with the end of the curfew, the economic recovery and the return of good weather. Regret the confusion between two ballots, concerning regions and departments whose powers and competences are unknown or confused, and whose elected officials and candidates are ignored with a few exceptions. To make matters worse, the campaign, almost confidential because of health instructions in times of Covid-19, was “nationalized” or even “presidentialized”, with the emphasis on themes such as security or immigration, outside the competence regional.
However, ballot after ballot, citizens' mistrust of politics continues to grow.
Especially since this Sunday, this abstentionist dive touched in roughly equal parts all socio-professional categories.
Even if young people, admittedly traditionally more abstainers than the rest of the population, this time break through stratospheric ceilings: 87% of 18-24 year olds and 83% of 25-34 year olds abstained, against 56% of 60-69 year olds (and only 40% of those over 70), reveals the Ipsos institute.
Among the problems raised by this withdrawal of the French is that, very real, of the legitimacy of such poorly elected leaders - like many mayors a year ago.
Xavier Bertrand, big winner
Not sure that the pollsters had a very good evening, so much their projections were jostled.
Thus, they had largely overestimated the weight of the RN (which ultimately only came out on top in the Paca region) almost everywhere.
At the national level, the RN which stood at 28% in the 1st round of regional 2015 has declined to 19.3% (according to Elabe), having also suffered from abstention.
Perhaps pollsters will have to revise their tools for measuring the far-right party.
Read alsoFirst round of regional elections: all the results
In Hauts-de-France, they had not seen coming the very high score of outgoing president Xavier Bertrand (42.1% according to Ipsos), nor the collapse of frontist champion Sébastien Chenu (24.5%), very below 40% of Marine Le Pen in 2015. Bertrand appears all the more as the big winner of this 1st round as he also defeated the battalion of ministers, including the fiery Éric Dupond-Moretti, sent by Emmanuel Macron as reinforcements from the LREM list, eliminated in the 1st round. As if Xavier Bertrand had won his bet and the Head of State failed his (getting rid of a rival by 2022).
It is moreover the Walkers as a whole who must cut back, deprived of their hopes of playing the kingmakers.
Other surprises, the performances of the outgoing presidents of the Grand-Est and Bourgogne Franche-Comté regions, Jean Rottner (LR) and Marie-Guite Dufay (PS), both ahead of the head of the RN list.
Finally, in this Paca region which seemed promised to the RN, neck and neck Muselier-Mariani announces a very close battle next Sunday.
Political power struggles
The very low turnout accentuated the bonus effect on graduates, in favor of the best-known regional presidents - Valérie Pécresse, Laurent Wauquiez or Xavier Bertrand, Carole Delga, Alain Rousset, etc. -, especially when they were active in the health crisis (purchase of masks, etc.).
This effect has played to the right - apart from the suspense Muselier - LR is on course to keep its status as the leading party in France.
A paradox for a party entangled in its internal divisions, torn between the Marchers and the RN, struggling to exist at the national level… but which could find momentum and a leader after these regional ones.
The left remains weak, with a total weight (LFI, PC, PS, EELV, Various left) of 33% according to Ipsos, but the PS seems on track to avoid berezina in its 5 regions.