Hardly any infections, fewer restrictions and a mild evening with friends: it feels like the pandemic is coming to an end.
But Delta and the fear of the fourth wave lie as a shadow over the summer happiness.
Berlin (dpa) - At the moment, life in Germany feels almost normal again, because the Corona ghost delta is disturbing the summer euphoria.
The more contagious variant is also gaining in importance in this country, making a possible fourth wave more likely.
However, it is difficult to predict whether it will actually come and how bad it will be. "I am now ready to say that we are now in the race in Germany with the Delta variant," said the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten on Friday evening at the online congress for infectious diseases and tropical medicine. "From now on we have to take this really seriously." Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) warned that the variant first known in India would be dominant in Germany in three to four weeks. And Ifo President Clemens Fuest said "t-online": "The Delta variant is a serious threat to the German economy."
According to an analysis by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for the first week of June, the proportion of the delta variant (B.1.617.2) in Germany has almost doubled to six percent within just one week.
The RKI assumes that infections with the Delta variant could lead to more severe disease courses.
Incidence continues to fall
At the same time, the corona situation continues to ease.
The number of corona patients in the intensive care unit fell below 1000 for the first time since October, the RKI gave the seven-day incidence on Sunday at 8.8 (previous day: 9.3; previous week: 17.3; previous month: 68.0) .
In the meantime, no city or district has broken the incidence mark of 50. The concern is that the numbers could rise again if the more contagious delta variant becomes dominant.
In some other countries like India and the UK, Delta is already striking hard. The Portuguese capital Lisbon was cordoned off at the weekend because of the mutant. A record number of new infections was recorded in Russia's capital, Moscow. According to Mayor Sergej Sobyanin, almost 90 percent of Covid diseases can be traced back to Delta. Moscow - like all of Russia - continues to fight against a great deal of vaccination skepticism among the population.
The situation now in Germany is somewhat comparable to that in England in May, said Drosten.
In Great Britain, the delta variant had clearly dominated the infection process within a few weeks despite advanced vaccination rates.
The seven-day incidences rose again - from 20 to around 80 most recently. Easing was therefore stopped.
It was mainly young adults who were infected, said Drosten.
In England, the infections mainly took place in the vaccination gaps.
Will the summer holidays help?
"If we were to calculate how things have developed in England, that is, roughly doubling it per week, then we would have this speculative scenario: Then we would be at 20 percent this week," said Drosten. At the beginning of July, the delta variant would then also dominate in Germany. "And we would have to expect that the number of registrations in Germany would rise again at the beginning of July," concluded the scientist. But that is still pure speculation and a hypothesis. Germany still has a chance if it can further reduce the incidence in the next few weeks. “What could also help are the school holidays. In England it started in schools. There is a clear difference. "
So far, however, no increased re-infection rate has been observed. “That means that those who are either vaccinated or infected are well protected.” For the future, a loss of the relationship between the number of cases and the burden of disease is to be expected. Despite the infection, the infections would then be mild or not noticeable at all.
The corona modeler Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin recently told the Tagesspiegel: “If we put together the knowledge about the delta mutant and the vaccine protection that declines over time, our model results in a fourth wave in the transmissions if countermeasures are not taken . “In vaccinated and convalescent people, children and adolescents, this is unlikely to cause any severe courses.
However, almost all of the non-immunized are infected by the wave at approximately the same time.
“In the model, this still puts a considerable strain on the clinics.” It is plausible that this wave will come at the end of the warm season or earlier.
What should be done in the long term?
Nagel emphasized that as many people as possible should get full vaccination protection as quickly as possible.
So far, almost every third person in Germany has been fully vaccinated, and a good half have had a first dose.
In addition, Nagel advocates preparing now for measures that may be necessary in autumn.
Others follow this notch.
The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck told the “Fuldaer Zeitung”: “We are failing to learn as much as possible from the pandemic and to prepare for autumn and winter.
There is a general impression that the virus will disappear and that we will have overcome the pandemic if the next few months run smoothly. "
In the opinion of Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU), corona measures will therefore have to be maintained in schools in autumn and winter.
At an online conference of the Evangelical Academy in Tutzing on Saturday, he mentioned the mask requirement and changing instruction.
"Millions of people set in motion who would otherwise not move and meet," he explained.
That could become a “hub into the households”.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210620-99-66457 / 5
RKI report on variants from 16.6.
"Tagesspiegel" interview with Kai Nagel
