In the corona crisis year 2020, people in Germany saved like the world champions - for the most part by necessity.
So there is a lot of catching up to do in terms of consumption.
That is good for the German economy.
Frankfurt / Main - According to the Bundesbank, private consumption, which was curbed by the pandemic, is now likely to become a powerful driver of the economic upturn.
“In the current summer half year, private consumption should recover quickly,” explains the central bank in its monthly report for June presented on Monday.
The Bundesbank's economists assume that the strong economic growth will only weaken in 2023 after the Corona low.
Above all, private consumption will continue to grow "extraordinarily strongly": "It remains the main driving force behind the strong upswing."
In the crisis year 2020, many people kept their money together, closings in retail stores and travel restrictions also slowed consumption.
According to the latest calculation by the Federal Statistical Office, the savings rate in Germany rose to a record high of 16.2 percent.
In other words: for every 100 euros of disposable income, households put an average of 16 euros on the high edge.
In a survey by the Bundesbank in March of this year, half of the 2,402 participants said they had on average more money at the end of the month than before the pandemic.
Many economists expect that consumers will at least make up for some of the postponed purchases, trips and activities in the coming months - and thus boost the economy.
The Bundesbank explains that it is assumed that, especially this year and next, "around a quarter of the savings that were involuntarily built up during the pandemic (...) will be used for additional consumer spending".
In the long term, the savings rate in Germany should “reach a level similar to that before the pandemic”.
In 2019 the rate was 10.9 percent.
Overall, after the setback in the first quarter of 2021, the Bundesbank expects a strong increase in economic output in Germany in spring - mainly because service sectors such as the hospitality industry and retail are doing better business again after the corona restrictions have expired. According to the Bundesbank, the current burdens on industry due to supply bottlenecks are likely to be “within limits”.
The central bank published its latest forecasts for the full year 2021 and the following years in mid-June. According to this, the real gross domestic product (GDP) in a calendar-adjusted perspective will increase by a little under four percent in 2021, then by a good five percent in 2022. Last year, the corona pandemic plunged the German economy into the deepest recession since the global financial crisis in 2009. GDP collapsed by 4.8 percent in real terms. dpa