Will the Delta virus variant develop in Germany like it did in England?
Then there could soon be rising incidences again in this country, warns virologist Christian Drosten.
Berlin - According to the Charité virologist Christian Drosten, Germany must take the Delta variant in the pandemic seriously with immediate effect.
"I am now ready to say that we are now in the race in Germany with the Delta variant," said Drosten at the online congress for infectious diseases and tropical medicine.
"We have to take this really seriously from now on."
Mutant spreads
According to an analysis by the Robert Koch Institute for the first week of June, the proportion of the Delta variant in Germany had almost doubled to six percent within just one week. In the previous weeks, this mutant stagnated nationwide by around two percent. Even now it is still at a comparatively low level - but in retrospect. “From a feeling, I can say that more and more people are calling us who describe outbreaks, more and more laboratories,” reported Drosten. There is currently an outbreak in the south of Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein. "That reminds me of the beginning of the B.1.1.7 epidemic in Germany, where it was the same," said the virologist.
The more contagious variant B.1.1.7., Which became known in Great Britain in 2020, drove Germany into the third wave of pandemics in winter.
Containment measures came too late or were too inconsistent.
A look at Great Britain as a warning
The situation now in Germany is somewhat comparable to that in England in May, analyzed Drosten.
In Great Britain, the more contagious Delta variant had clearly taken over the predominance of the infection process within a few weeks despite advanced vaccination rates.
The 7-day incidences rose again - from 20 to 70. Easing was therefore stopped.
It was mainly young adults who were infected, said Drosten.
In England, the infections mainly took place in the vaccination gaps.
"If we were to calculate the way things have developed in England, with an approximate doubling per week, then we would have this speculative scenario: Then we would be at 20 percent this week," said Drosten.
At the beginning of July, the delta variant would also be dominant in Germany.
"And we would have to expect that the number of registrations in Germany would rise again at the beginning of July," concluded the scientist.
But that is still pure speculation and a hypothesis.
Germany still has a chance if it can further reduce the incidence in the next few weeks.
“What could also help are the school holidays.
In England it started in schools.
There is a clear difference. "
Insufficient immunity in Germany
But even in Germany there is still insufficient immunity from vaccination to limit a possible increase in incidence. Nationwide, around half of adults have been vaccinated once, almost a third completely. In England, the incidences continued to rise despite higher vaccination rates, said Drosten. There, the infections in schools and in the event and leisure area spilled over to young people. "We'll probably see that in Germany too."
So far, however, no increased re-infection rate has been observed. “That means that those who are either vaccinated or infected are well protected.” In the future, a loss of the relationship between the number of cases and the burden of disease is to be expected. Despite the infection, the infections would then be mild or not noticeable at all. “In extreme cases, we observe a laboratory epidemic if we had all protected. But we all know that children are not yet protected and neither are many others, ”said Drosten. Therefore, you still have to take the severity of the disease with the Delta variant at the moment. In England, too, there are still hospital admissions at a stagnating level. In the non-vaccinated, the severity of the disease is probably increased by the delta virus variant. But so far there is no evidencethat it makes you sicker than other variants, added Drosten.
Streeck: Politics is not active enough
The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck emphasized that the pandemic was not over.
He complained that politics was still too reactive and not active enough.
“We are failing to learn as much as possible from the pandemic and to prepare for autumn and winter.
There is generally the impression that the virus will disappear and that we will have overcome the pandemic if the next few months run smoothly, "said Streeck of the" Fuldaer Zeitung "(Saturday).
But you have to prepare for all eventualities that could arise in autumn.
There are too many unknowns - including the delta variant.
Chancellor Angela Merkel also spoke up with a warning to be careful. Because of the very low number of cases, corona outbreaks in Germany could currently be followed much better and dealt with the Delta variant well, said the CDU politician before a dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin. "But I can only say: We cannot pretend Corona is over. Even if on such a summer evening the feeling is that there is nothing left. ”Also because there are a large number of non-vaccinated people who do not have full protection“ I believe that caution is still necessary so that we have a lot of freedom in a summer, but not yet all freedoms, ”said the Chancellor. dpa
