Regional abstention: six questions on an absolute record

The French overwhelmingly shunned the ballot box on Sunday, during the first round of regional elections.

With an abstention rate of over 66.6%, this election even shattered an absolute record under the Fifth Republic.

Here is what we can say about this phenomenon, which particularly affected the youngest.

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Has there ever been such a high level of abstention?

Let's start by comparing the regional ones with the regional ones: 66.6% of abstention is 13 points more than the highest level recorded so far for this election, in 2010. And 16 points more than the previous regional ones, in 2015.

But it is not only the lowest participation in a regional ballot: it is the weakest participation in a simple ballot since the beginning of the Fifth Republic.

The previous record of 59.4% during the 2009 Europeans is shattered.

Only one referendum, that for the five-year term, in 2000, had a lower turnout (30.19%)

Where did we abstain?

Everywhere, except in Corsica.

But, as the map below shows, some regions have reached worrying levels: this is the case of Grand-Est, which goes above 70% of abstention, but also of Ile-de- France and Pays de la Loire, which exceed 69% abstention.

Read alsoRegional elections 2021, first round: discover the results in your municipality

If the analysis of participation by region is not extremely relevant, since the regions are now so vast that they bring together extremely varied realities, it should be noted that the explosion of abstention in the west was already particularly visible during the last municipal.

Who abstained?

All socio-professional categories, according to an Ipsos study, which already quantified a worrying trend in terms of age: 87% of 18-24 year olds and 83% of 25-34 year olds intended to abstain from this poll, against, by example, only 40% of over 70s. A first dive into the results of the election confirms this: the youngest have massively shunned the ballot box. According to our calculations, in municipalities with many young people (more than 35% of the population under 30), the median abstention reached 64.5%, against 53.5% in those with fewer young people (less 27%). And in the same way, in the municipalities with a very low proportion of over 60 years (less than 23%), the median abstention soars to 63.5%, while it "drops" to 54,6% in municipalities with more than 35% of this same age group.

Why did they abstain?

It is too early to tell.

But the pollsters pointed out several reasons, among which we find, without surprise, the disinterest in the parties, the lack of representativeness of the lists, or even a feeling of powerlessness.

Note, however, that the same pollsters underestimated abstention by around 10% ...

Who benefited from the abstention?

Here again, such a level of participation makes any political analysis perilous.

However, there is an obvious bonus to leaving, particularly on the right (Bertrand, Pécresse, Wauquiez) but also on the left (Delga, Rousset).

The abstention thus offered the old traditional parties a small revenge on the Marchers, who made a resounding flop, but also on the RN, whose voters were nevertheless deemed to be loyal.

But also young ...