It was the last time the French were called to the polls before the 2022 presidential election, but few took advantage of it.
The second round of regional and departmental elections, this Sunday, was marked by an abstention close to 66%, unheard of at this stage of a poll.
Several outgoing regional presidents from both right and left were re-elected, while the majority and the National Gathering came very far from their ambitions.
Here are the five main lessons from this election.
The abstention still massive
Appeals from candidates and elected officials of all stripes will have done nothing. A large majority of French people, 65.7% according to an Ipsos / Sopra Steria estimate for France Televisions, Radio France and The Parliamentary Channel, shunned the ballot box this Sunday. It is a little less than in the first round (66.7%) but much more than in the three previous regional elections. The abstention had reached "only" 41.59% in the second round in 2015, 48.79% in 2010, and 34.34% in 2004 (previously, these elections only took place in one round).
The mini-rebound in participation between the two rounds "has no meaning and it is too weak to be interpreted", insists Luc Rouban, researcher at the Center for Political Research of Science Po. "The calls for the vote, in particular those of Marine Le Pen, were not heard at all, ”observes the political scientist.
According to Ipsos / Sopra Steria, 70% of voters close to France Insoumise and EELV and 64% of RN sympathizers did not vote.
The LREM electorate abstained a little less than the average (57%).
As in the first round, the more we drop in the age groups, the higher the abstention.
In other words, young people are the ones who have shunned the ballot box the most.
Only 21% of those under 35 cast their vote on Sunday.
Bitter failure for the RN
The polls gave him the lead in several regions in the first round and possible winner in some of them in the second, but the National Rally (RN) will ultimately lead none. In Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, where his main hopes were, Thierry Mariani is largely behind. The former UMP deputy (ex-Republicans) would obtain less than 43% against more than 57% for the candidate LR Renaud Muselier, who will be able to start a new term.
“The RN had already stalled in the first round but he experienced a second defeat in the second round, there was no rebound.
It is all the more disappointing for them as they have sometimes even lost ground compared to the first round, ”notes Luc Rouban.
In Île-de-France, Jordan Bardella goes from 13% to 11%.
In Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Julien Odoul remains around 23%, very far from his ambitions.
Shortly after 11 p.m., Marine Le Pen was forced to admit that these results were far from her expectations.
"Tonight, we will not take a region," she admitted, denouncing "unnatural alliances" on the part of the outgoing presidents.
“The presidential election appears more than ever as the election that allows for a change of policy,” she added, already looking towards 2022.
Republicans big winners
It's simple: six outgoing presidents and six big wins. The right is a hit with these regional elections. The three elected Republican, Laurent Wauquiez (Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes), Renaud Muselier (Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur) and Christelle Mor Anglais (Pays de la Loire) all finish well in the lead (respectively 55.3%, 57.3% and 46.3% of the vote, according to the latest estimates). Valérie Pécresse (Île-de-France) and Xavier Bertrand (Hauts-de-France), who left LR, as well as the centrist Hervé Morin (Normandy) also finished with a big lead.
Obviously, the main leaders of the Republicans did not hide their joy.
"To those who still doubt it, the right is more than ever standing this evening", exclaimed on Twitter the president of the LR group to the National Assembly Damien Abad, when the president of the party Christian Jacob praised "a formidable victory for us ".
To those who still doubt it, the right is more than ever standing this evening.
United, we can win the presidential election more than ever.
Tonight's results are very encouraging.
The path to hope starts tonight.
#electionsregionales2021 #Regionales
- Damien Abad (@damienabad) June 27, 2021
But the hardest part may begin, because the right will now have to find a contender for the 2022 presidential election. Xavier Bertrand has already indicated that he would be a candidate, but The Republicans do not intend to be absent from the starting line.
"With our good results, we are avoiding a shitty week, but we do not have a head that escapes for 2022", worried at the end of the first round an LR strategist.
Bérézina for LREM
For the party founded by Emmanuel Macron, hopes had vanished last week.
None of the candidates invested was able to win this Sunday evening.
The results therefore take on the appearance of sanction and make the majority the big loser in the ballot.
The finding is all the more painful for LREM as the party failed to make any alliance for the second round. This is true in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, in the Grand-Est or even in Pays de la Loire. The marchers did not either seduce the outgoing socialist president of the Brittany region, Loïg Chesnais-Girard, whose political career was built around Jean-Yves Le Drian, who has since joined the majority.
The candidates were thus guaranteed to play the supporting roles, without the slightest chance of electoral conquest. The Sunday results confirm the difficulty for La République en Marche to establish itself locally. Some candidates even lost ground between the two rounds. This is particularly the case of Laurent Saint-Martin in Île-de-France, given under 10%. But also of the former minister François de Rugy, fallen to 8.3% in Pays de la Loire according to the latest estimates. In Center-Val-de-Loire, the Minister responsible for Relations with Parliament, Marc Fesneau, finished 4th with 16% of the vote. "It's quite disastrous for the majority, confesses Luc Rouban. Either the LREM voters went to the most important force to support the right or left candidate in the second round in a sort of useful vote,or they did not mobilize in certain places. But that does not bode well for the presidential election because the regional elections have nothing to do. "
The left carried by the socialist strongholds
Julien Bayou may believe that ecology is the "only dynamic force", it is indeed the Socialists who can breathe a little this evening.
Brittany, Occitanie, Pays de la Loire, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Center-Val de Loire… Olivier Faure's party keeps its regions.
Sometimes with very satisfactory scores.
It is indeed Carole Delga, the outgoing president in Occitanie, who achieves the best result of this second round of regional.
Without the slightest alliance, it won more than 58% of the votes cast, according to the latest estimates.
To read also Regional in Occitania: 57.8%, the canon score of Carole Delga (PS)
“The left maintains its positions but it is marking time, analyzes Luc Rouban.
There was no real enthusiasm and this is not the triumph that one might expect from ecology and the alliance with the other left forces.
But on a very low registration basis, so you have to be careful.
"In Île-de-France, the EELV-LFI-PS alliance ends with 33.6% of the vote, far behind Valérie Pécresse (46%).
For their part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Alain Roussel, the leader of the Communists, hailed the victory of Huguette Bello in Reunion, welcoming the start of "a new era", while the candidate claimed her victory against outgoing president Didier Robert.
It is the only community to have changed sides this evening.
A result obtained, this time, after merging all the lists on the left.