The countdown is drawing to a close.
"Before July 14", as confirmed by the Elysee, the president must speak on the most explosive of reforms: pensions.
Suspended due to the Covid-19 health crisis, will work resume before the end of the five-year term?
For the time being, the discussion is taking place in a very small committee in order to avoid leaks.
The meetings take place around the Head of State and his right-hand man at the Élysée Alexis Kohler.
The decision is not yet taken, we assure the Palace.
In this context, the supporters of an acceleration are making themselves heard.
"There must be a pension reform, assénait Monday on RTL the boss of LREM Stanislas Guerini.
We will need to reform our French social model.
The track of a decrease in the legal retirement age to 64, again reported Tuesday by Les Echos
, is coming
back insistently.
Advantage of this option: fight against the pension deficit without launching an acrobatic overhaul of the system, such as the points model.
The temptation to launch "a reform stamped on the right"
“It's very quick to do, slips a communicator of power. Two lines in the social security financing bill this fall are enough to shift the starting age by two years. Portugal, a country dominated by the left, has just raised this limit to 67 years. And the effect is immediate on the effective starting age in companies ”. In his reflection, will the Head of State take into account the outcome of the ballot box? "After the victories of the right in the regions, Emmanuel Macron may be tempted to launch a reform stamped on the right," said a government adviser. In the executive, several ministers are campaigning to put the issue at the top of the pile, such as Bruno Le Maire (Economy) or Sébastien Lecornu (Overseas).
Some Walkers even expect the president to "reinvent the social model, by combining pensions, universal activity income, youth guarantees and autonomy," says an advisor.
Which explains: "It's a major risk-taking, but Macron was prevented from reforming because of the Covid.
He will want to show that he reforms from the first to the last day, without worrying about the electoral deadlines, whatever the consequences for him ”.
A roadmap for comprehensive reform?
This is the most daring hypothesis. According to an actor in the file, the president could "give meaning" to a comprehensive reform in the coming days, without revealing specific measures. Then he would ask the government to make this roadmap a reality. "The question is not only that of pensions, but what social protection we want for tomorrow and what solidarity", explains for his part the Secretary of State in charge of Pensions, Laurent Pietraszewski, at the end of a campaign of regional in the Hauts-de-France, where he wore the colors of the majority who could not keep up in the second round.
Not that easy. "This subject will require a broad social dialogue and the search for a social consensus", continues Laurent Pietraszewski. But here it is: the unions are standing up against the relaunch of the site before 2022. After the massive abstention of the regional, Jean Castex is also hardly enthusiastic about the idea of taking the risk of pointing the social partners and the public opinion. At the Elysee, we remain unmoved, cultivating the mystery to the end: "The president wants to continue to act, insists one of his relatives. It's all a question of timing and balance ”.