Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2021-06-30 06:30
Last update date: 2021-06-30 06:30
The "Minato National Security Law" was promulgated and directly implemented in Hong Kong at 11 pm on June 30 last year. Looking back on the past year, the Central Government successively formulated the "Minato National Security Law" and reformed the electoral system for Hong Kong. This set of "combined punches" once It has dealt with two major dissatisfaction with Hong Kong from the central government: some people have proposed separatism and use Hong Kong as a base for foreign forces to infiltrate and subvert; the electoral system is not safe enough, and the opposition has a chance to "change the sky".
"Hong Kong 01" interviews two scholars who have in-depth research on Hong Kong politics, discussing the influence of the National Security Law on Hong Kong's political situation in the past year. The first episode is Ma Yue, an associate professor of the Department of Politics and Administration of Chinese University.
He said that in the past year, Beijing’s two major measures against Hong Kong have created a "chilling" political atmosphere in Hong Kong. However, when the "red line" is not clear, the "chilling effect" of civil society has been generated. He described the political atmosphere in Hong Kong as if it were Back to the British colonization period before the democratic movement-an era when everyone was unwilling or afraid to talk about politics and could only focus on making money.
Regarding the democratization process, he believes that the issue has risen to the level of national security, and there is no way out in the short term.
National Security Law First Anniversary Series 2
The number of detainees is not high, but their identities are "widely representative"
On the eve of the passage of the National Security Law, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and other officials stated that the National Security Law is only aimed at a "very few people" and will not affect the general public.
Over the past year, the National Security Law has been used many times. Among them, the democrats have 35+ primary elections. In early July last year, 47 participants of the democrats in the Legislative Council were charged with the crime of "subverting state power," which was a sensation.
So far, the National Security Agency has arrested at least 114 people and about 60 people have been prosecuted.
Ma Yue mentioned that more than a hundred people were arrested. In terms of "absolute value," the number is not large, but the spectrum and behavior involved are very wide, covering the entire opposition camp. To paraphrase the government, the detainees are among the democrats. It is "widely representative."
He pointed out that no case has been concluded so far, and the threshold of conviction is unknown. However, from the implementation of law enforcement agencies, it seems that many acts can be attacked by the National Security Law, including political commentary. The "red line" appears vague. "No one seems to know the actual situation. Where is the standard."
"Most of the opposition camps may have problems."
When asked whether this is different from the official statement, Ma Yue said: "I dare not say whether this is aimed at the "most people." In a society, not everyone will pay attention to politics, but the entire opposition representatives have been arrested. Yes, some people were arrested simply because of their speech. According to this law enforcement standard, most people in the opposition camp may be in trouble."
Ma Yue explained that since the National Security Law actually moved a set of legal logic from the Mainland to Hong Kong and surpassed other local laws, there is a lot of room for interpretation of the provisions, but the penalties are very heavy, and the chance of a accused being released on bail is low, which has a serious impact on civil society. The chilling effect of the Chinese government is very great, and it has the objective effect of "killing the chicken and the monkey." "A year ago, everyone (the democrats) was still arguing whether or not the Legislative Council should be retained after the extension. But the political atmosphere is now completely different. There are still opposition parties. How much living space is in doubt."
Ma Yue.
(Photo by Luo Junhao)
Lamenting that the "great gray" serious society "returns to the colonial era without talking about politics"
One year after the National Security Law came into effect, there have been cases of mutual reporting and "turning over old accounts" in the society, including on campuses, there are phenomena of doubts by the democrats, such as the return of the "Cultural Revolution."
Ma Yue said that at this stage it is still not possible to say that it is the "return of the Cultural Revolution", but at least the National Security Law has completely changed the atmosphere of social and political public opinion: "If the meaning of the Cultural Revolution is really like the 1960s, the students found the teacher to criticize, It may not be possible to find out that the dissident killed the other’s family, and it may not be seen in the short term. However, the current situation is that some politically sensitive things may be "dumb", making everyone afraid to avoid trouble. Be silent."
He described that the current society is turning Hong Kong back into a colonial era of depoliticization. "Anyway, don't talk about so much politics."
The Legislative Council passed the "Improvement of the Electoral System (Comprehensive Amendment) Bill 2021" in the third reading in May this year. The next Legislative Council will increase to 90 seats, but the number of directly elected seats will be reduced to 20.
(Photo by Lu Yiming)
80+ seats are expected to be assigned to the new Legislative Council
The central government used "combined punches" to reshuffle Hong Kong's political agenda. Ma Yue agreed to discuss the impact of the National Security Law and must also discuss the revision of the election system.
Ma Yue, who has been studying Hong Kong elections and democratic development for many years, said with a wry smile: "My research field has been DQ."
He said that although Hong Kong’s past elections were not fully democratic, the threshold for direct elections to the Legislative Council is not high. The voting behavior of voters and the votes of the two major camps of democracy and establishment reflect the trend of public opinion to a large extent. The golden ratio (democrats accounted for 60% of the votes and the establishment accounted for 40%)", which exactly reflects the citizens' pursuit of democracy.
However, the new electoral system has added multiple hurdles. To become a candidate, you must be nominated by the five sectors of the election committee and pass the qualification review committee.
Ma Yue believes that the degree to which the election reflects public opinion is not the same as before, because a considerable part of the public opinion has been "separated" from the election barrier: "In the future, even if the pan-democratic system has a result, the first turnout rate will definitely be lower than before. The distribution of seats will also have very little impact on the future political atmosphere. The establishment has 90 seats in the (legislative council), and I believe it will occupy more than 80 seats.” Because of this, Ma Yue said that he has not yet decided whether to meet in the Legislative Council in December this year. Election, conduct in-depth and systematic research.
Whether the democrats can participate in the election depends on "a deal"
Ma Yue said that if the opposition wants to run for the election, in addition to considering whether to enter the gates, it even has to consider its own "safety". This refers to the 47-person case in the primary election. "A year ago, everyone felt the worst situation. "It's just" being DQ, and you can't "die"; but now, there will be direct personal safety issues. Participating in the election may become a criminal offense and violate the national security law. I don't know how many years in jail. Moreover, these potential risks are unpredictable. Yes, it can change at any time."
He believes: "This is a deal after all. It depends on what Beijing proposes to Panmin as a condition for the election. As long as the negotiation is successful, other things like the qualification review committee, nomination votes, etc., are not difficult to pass." Ma Yue is concerned about how individual democrats concession in their stand and principles in order to run for the election, and whether these compromises will in turn offend voters who originally supported the pan-democracy, and finally "both sides do not touch the shore": "For example, If you can’t even vindicate the June Fourth Movement, and the Democratic Party can’t get the original votes, then what's the point of running for the election?"
"Overkill" election restructuring?
Ma: It depends on whether the goal is achieved
Before the reform election was passed, Shao Shanbo, the former chief adviser of the Central Policy Group, once said that the handling of the electoral system should not be "overkilled," so as to prevent Hong Kong from "patients becoming dead."
Ma Yue said that we must first accurately define what is meant by "overkill": "Because there must be a purpose behind overkill. When the medication is overdone, even the patient dies, and the original purpose is not achieved, that is overkill." He analyzed that the National Security Act last year In the early legislative period, looking at the attitudes of the central and SAR officials, I believe that the authorities still hope that the West feels that "one country, two systems" works well and the rule of law still exists. However, what happened in Hong Kong over the course of the year seems to be going in another direction.
For example, he pointed out that when the central government and the SAR government modify the electoral system, it is impossible not to know that the new system will significantly reduce the acceptance of the new system in the eyes of the democrats and their supporters. When the government was restructuring, it knew that there was a chance that someone would initiate a boycott. Since you all know that this will make people less willing to stand for elections and vote, but why do you still want to do it?"
Ma Yue believes that if the government wants to create a "killing" atmosphere, then the National Security Law and the reform of the electoral system are not "overkill" because the goal has been achieved; but if it wants to retain the acceptance of the new system, some space should be reserved. The angle may be overdone.
In the book "Hong Kong Politics: Development Process and Core Issues" published by Ma Yue in 2010, he mentioned an important knot in the development of Hong Kong's political system, which cannot be solved in the past decade.
(Photo by Luo Junhao)
"Democratization has risen to the level of national security." There is no way out in the short term
Regarding the direction of Hong Kong's future democratization, Ma Yue bluntly stated that "there is no way out in the short term."
He pointed out that Beijing now seems to regard democratization as a national security issue, and believes that "democratization is the seizure of power": "The Hong Kong electoral system has been directly linked to the "regime security". If Hong Kong is democratized to this level , That is impossible (democratization)."
【postscript】
In the past year, some people in the non-organizational camp were arrested, imprisoned, and emigrated, some disappeared and stopped speaking, and the media and scholars also struggled to survive.
As a scholar who has studied Hong Kong politics for many years, Ma Yue often analyzes the political situation to the media, unavoidably discussing controversial issues.
At the time of the visit, Ma Yue was collating documents in the office. He took the initiative to explain to reporters: "I will go to the United States next week."
The reporter was surprised: "Leave Hong Kong?"
Ma Yue immediately said with a smile: "I will be back, rest assured. It's just a summer vacation." He clearly stated that he has focused on academic research and has never advocated Hong Kong independence or called for foreign sanctions. He is very law-abiding, and criticizing the government is what many people do. Matter, don’t worry about personal safety.
He also reminded reporters to keep asking others "whether they are worried about their own safety", and he is also spreading "white terror": "You may not be afraid of yourself, but the people around you ask "Are you surprised?" Worry about it."
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