Maria Laura Avignolo
06/29/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
World
Updated 06/29/2021 6:01 AM
When the then guerrilla Daniel Ortega was taking a nap in a safe house in Managua, Nicaragua, together with his machine gun, the block was surrounded by the Somoza patrol. The Sandinista sociologist, economist and guerrilla
Oscar René Vargas
rescued him along with his brother and saved his life. Today Vargas, co-founder of the Sandinista National Liberation Front that overthrew Anastasio Somoza and a former comrade in arms of the current president, is in exile in Costa Rica, persecuted by the regime
of whose revolution he was a great protagonist and today calls for his capture.
Vargas is a sociologist, an opponent of the new marital autocracy of Daniel Ortega and
Rosario Murillo
, who thinks that he will fall before a rebellion by the army and the police who today support his regime of terror, in the midst of a fierce social, political and economic crisis. , with one percent of the population vaccinated in the pandemic.
From Costa Rica, Vargas spoke by phone with
Clarín
to analyze the future of his country, the possibility of elections and the future of the presidential marriage, in the midst of this massive detention of opponents, politicians and journalists, who no one knows where they are being detained and families or their defense attorneys do not have access to them until now.
Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo on a Managua street.
Photo Reuter
-What does President Daniel Ortega intend with this strategy in Nicaragua of stopping all presidential candidates, opponents and journalists?
- I believe that it is a thing quite clear for me, it can be first to behead the social movement.
That is to say, decapitate the leadership and seek how to stay in power as long as possible by neutralizing social mobilization.
That is his goal, to stay in power as long as possible.
In that logic, his strategy is power or death.
What I mean by this?
As he does not see himself out of power, then it is power at any cost, or death, because he knows that losing power is his political death or facing justice in the country.
That is why his logic does not enter into the possibility of contemplating a loss of power.
-You have known him for many years. He saved his life when the Somocista Guard was going to liquidate him. Why did Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo change?
-The fact of saving his life was on November 4, 1967, in which I risked my own life to get him out of a difficult situation. The Somocista Guard was surrounding the house where he was. Many, many years have passed to see how a person transforms. But that is due to the lack of political preparation. In my opinion, the lack of principles, which makes it evolve towards wanting to stay in power at any cost. That is your goal, there is no other. In the 80s, power was more diffuse on his part and he could not impose his own will, whereas now he is his will and the will of Mrs. Murillo. As they do not see themselves out of power, especially after April, where the different human rights organizations describe them as having committed crimes against humanity,They are not willing to take any risks since they can be persecuted later when they lose power. That is why their logic is power or death.
-And what is the difference for you between this dictatorship and the Somoza dictatorship?
-I personally don't see it. I want to remember that I also lived in exile during the Somoza dictatorship. The main characteristic of these two dictatorships is that while there is a certain social peace, the repression is a very selective, occasional repression. But when the social crisis increases, the repression is indiscriminate. And it has been so in the Somoza regime as well as in the Ortega-Murillo regime. In that aspect there has been no difference. Now, from the point of view of corruption, in Somoza's time, as in Ortega Murillo's time, it has been brutal. I mean without principles. It allows sectors linked to the regime, both Somocista and the Ortega regime, to have inexplicably enriched themselves under the government's protection. And that inexplicable enrichment has allowed him,both the Somoza dictatorship and the Ortega dictatorship, create a siege. An inner circle of power that is also linked to people from the army and the police. That is why the Army and the Police also support Ortega without question. Ortega has also become dependent on the military sector, that is, members of the Army, the police and the paramilitaries.
Daniel Ortega, president of Nicaragua and in his time as Sandinista commander.
-How long will you have the support of the Army, the Police, the military, the hitmen? As always happens in dictatorships, these alliances, including with businessmen, break down at some point, especially due to international pressure.
-Here is a combination of elements that can cause that internal break. What I call the implosion of the regime. That is, there is an internal implosion. There is a breakdown in the relationships they have established. Why is it possible to break? First, because the regime has not been able to resolve any of the five crises Nicaragua is experiencing. The economic crisis continues, the social crisis deepens, the political crisis also, the health crisis of the coronavirus. Only 1 or 2 percent of the Nicaraguan population has been vaccinated. And the international crisis, as it has been exacerbated by this repressive wave that Ortega has unleashed. These five crises tend to affect both the new class, that is, the Orteguistas who got rich around Ortega, the military sector,because the military sector also seeks to preserve the institution to survive, even if the regime falls. And it must also be remembered that the military sector, the Army in Nicaragua, also receives pressure from the United States Army, precisely the command based in Miami. This has been one of the elements that can create the greatest fissure within the army. The recently passed Renacer law, which passed last Monday, tends to hit the Army with the issue of investments it has on the New York Stock Exchange. That is, they are touching elements that can make sectors of the Army, not necessarily the military leadership, suggest that a different exit from the Ortega-Murillo regime is necessary.the Army in Nicaragua also receives pressure from the United States Army, precisely the command based in Miami. This has been one of the elements that can create the greatest fissure within the army. The recently passed Renacer law, which passed last Monday, tends to hit the Army with the issue of investments it has on the New York Stock Exchange. That is, they are touching elements that can make sectors of the Army, not necessarily the military leadership, suggest that a different exit from the Ortega-Murillo regime is necessary.the Army in Nicaragua also receives pressure from the United States Army, precisely the command based in Miami. This has been one of the elements that can create the greatest fissure within the army. The recently passed Renacer law, which passed last Monday, tends to hit the Army with the issue of investments it has on the New York Stock Exchange. That is, they are touching elements that can make sectors of the Army, not necessarily the military leadership, suggest that a different exit from the Ortega-Murillo regime is necessary.It tends to hit the Army with the issue of investments it has on the New York Stock Exchange. That is, they are touching elements that can make sectors of the Army, not necessarily the military leadership, suggest that a different exit from the Ortega-Murillo regime is necessary.It tends to hit the Army with the issue of investments it has on the New York Stock Exchange. That is, they are touching elements that can make sectors of the Army, not necessarily the military leadership, suggest that a different exit from the Ortega-Murillo regime is necessary.
-Is there a possibility that these November presidential elections will be canceled as he intends or that this eventual state of siege, these massive arrests, will force Ortega to a probably negotiated exit, which he thought for later and in the future? what did you intend to win?
- Personally I do not believe that Ortega, in his mind, is willing to postpone the elections. What can happen to Ortega is that international pressure is such that Ortega finds it necessary to negotiate prior to the elections. And then, depending on whether there is that prior negotiation, the elections can be postponed. But in Ortega's logic, he wants to hold the elections so that, after the fraudulent elections, which he is going to hold, with the opposition beheaded, then he will be able to negotiate later. In a way of saying: "well, I'm already elected, let's negotiate. Let's start by negotiating that you accept my election and I'm willing to negotiate some aspects that you raise." That is Ortega's strategy. Ortega wants to reach January from 2022 to negotiate.The question is whether the international pressure and its international isolation, the social decomposition and the social effervescence of today will allow it to be able to arrive until after the election.
- Does international pressure serve, having as a precedent, for example, the Venezuelan case, where it is very strong, but the regime is still there. Are you afraid that this pressure will not reach?
-International pressure alone does not have a real effect on domestic politics.
This international pressure has to be accompanied by internal pressure, be it a social movement or the crisis of the powers that be.
What Ortega is trying to avoid is that this crisis, this international pressure, is translated into internal pressure.
How?
Taking prisoner a whole sector of the political class, businessmen, presidential candidates, to prevent that international expression from having an internal correspondence.
So he wants to behead that possibility.
Daniel Ortega with Ernesto Cardenal in 1980, when they were still together.
AFP photo
-Is there any possibility that part of the Army, the police or the Ortega base itself, some of whom are poor on the other hand, who have links with the most deprived people of Nicaragua, will rebel?
- The five crises that I have indicated have reduced its social base. It is now calculated, according to a survey, that it has a social base of less than 20 percent, when before 2018 it reached 38/45 percent. In other words, it has lost its social base. But this is also what has happened. The impoverishment of the country and the impoverishment of the social sectors, including the middle class, also weakens the regime, in the sense that it has no proposal and no possibility of taking the country forward. So this may have the effect that sectors of the Army and the police, especially the Army, I estimate, can distance themselves from the Ortega-Murillo regime.
-In April of last year, when there was a huge repression, it was evident that the regime did not have a police force and a sufficiently organized army. Do you consider that the Cubans came to help Daniel Ortega? And what role did they play?
-According to the reports of former members of the Army and people who deserted from the Army on that date, they consider that first, people belonging to the Nicaraguan Army were those who participated and coordinated the action. And they also point out that there were foreigners, although they could not or never said for sure what nationality they were. So that is not ruled out. The hypothesis is that there was a combination of foreign people, more people from the army, who managed to organize the paramilitaries to carry out the generalized and criminal repression that they did. There were more than 350 deaths recorded by international organizations. But it is estimated that more than 500, more than 2,000 injured. Missing people who are not known. Why? Because it is said that there have been one hundred thousand people who emigrated to Costa Rica.But it is not known if there is no record among those people, that they all arrived and that they may have been captured and disappeared. In other words, the repression was such that it is difficult to make an accurate balance without an investigation that had the approval or support of government institutions.
Daniel Ortega, after the triumph of the Sandinista Popular Liberation Front.
AFP photo
-How is Daniel Ortega's bond with Cuba and especially with Mexico and Venezuela as well?
-With Cuba there is an alliance, between Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. That is a triangle, which has established an alliance to coordinate its politics, both internally and internationally. I believe that the case of Mexico is a separate case. If we see the latest events in Mexico, there is a lot of pressure from different sectors for the government of Mr. López Obrador to distance itself from the government of Ortega - Murillo. That is what is happening when the López Obrador government calls its ambassador for consultation. Also yesterday, the special or preparatory commission of the Mexican Senate approved a resolution condemning the repression in Nicaragua. This resolution will go to the plenary and possibly be approved. I do not doubt that. Why? Because in the different most important media in Mexico, in editorials and opinion articles,They have been very strong in condemning the repression of Ortega - Murillo. So the Mexican case is going to have a yardstick of criteria, it has to be understood in a different way. The same is happening in Argentina.
-What do you think of this attitude of the Argentine government? Who supports first, takes away support later. The Argentine position is a bit confusing.
-Because I think the problem has been that also in Argentina, the media have given reports showing the true dimension of the repression. This makes the regime, the Argentine government of Mr. Fernández, less likely to maintain that position of "neutrality." So his next step was to call his ambassador for consultation. The same happened with the Mexican case. That is, the awareness that the repression is indiscriminate, that it violates human rights, that it violates political rights and that the dictatorship is transformed into a "banana" dictatorship and that it has nothing to do with a government between "de left or progressive ", evidently that limits the possibilities of both governments of Mexico and Argentina,to continue to maintain neutrality in the face of this repressive wave that is known in Nicaragua.
In the streets, Daniel Ortega Photo Reuters
-There is another phenomenon that is the exile of leaders, intellectuals, journalists, in some way to save their lives. But Dora Téllez, who is in detention, said that Ortega's strategy is for the opposition to exile itself and if it does not, imprison it to perpetuate itself in power. Do you agree with this benefit?
-I think so. It is part of your strategy. But the problem is that exile also allows lobbying in the different Latin American or European governments. And that's an element that I think Dora didn't take into consideration. My fear is the following: yesterday I heard Daniel Ortega's speech and he said that the country was facing a new military coup, a coup. But nobody has guns or anything like that. But what worried me the most is that government spokesmen said that in the event of an Army intervention, the government would kill those who are in prison. What do I want to create with this? The people who have been detained, inventing any law, whatever it is, are serving Ortega as hostages because of their "fear", in the face of any intervention - which I see as unlikely.But most of all because it is an exchange token in a possible international negotiation.
-What is known about the treatment of opponents detained in prisons, is there any news? Because in the newspaper El País it was published that they are practicing the "submarine" against the detainees in the prisons. That is, they put their head in the water for more than 20 minutes in succession.
-The fact is that there is no knowledge of what is happening.
Even the lawyers have not had the possibility to speak with their clients.
Nor have the relatives been able to see his family.
There is a total ignorance.
For example, they are not given the chance to receive the food that relatives bring to their detainees.
20 days have passed in some cases where it is not known where they are and it is not known in what condition they are. All repressive governments such as that of Ortega and Murillo, evidently use torture to try to find or know some things that they are finding out and especially what they think. They have the wrong idea that in Nicaragua, April was a coup, when they do not recognize that it was a spontaneous social uprising. Proof of this is that there was no coordinated political leadership. But they, to sell abroad at an international level, that they are defending themselves from a coup d'état, evidently that they follow the logic of saying that the people who took prisoner are part of a conspiracy that want to give a new coup d'état. Condition.
-Are you going to demand that I go to commissions of the UN, the OAS, the European Union, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty, to collect evidence, to be able to see the detainees, to have access to the jails?
-Not. Ortega is letting anyone in. Proof of this is that the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has wanted to return to Nicaragua and cannot. Neither does the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Neither the Washington and New York Times journalists, who have sought to enter Nicaragua to report what is happening, did not allow them to enter. So Ortega is blocking all possibilities of witnessing what is happening in Nicaragua. The great advantage is that there have been independent journalists, who keep up to date what is happening, and who are correspondents for some international media such as "El País" or, in the case of Mexico, "La Jornada." Also the interviews that the different media do,As in Argentina or Peru, it is what allows us to have a more direct evaluation of Nicaraguan people, that we can give testimony of what is happening in the country and that we can analyze the situation that Nicaragua is experiencing.
PB
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