Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2021-06-30 07:00
Last update date: 2021-06-30 07:00
The "Hong Kong National Security Law" was promulgated and directly implemented in Hong Kong at 11 pm on June 30 last year.
The central government successively formulated the "National Security Law" for Hong Kong and reformed the electoral system, which fundamentally changed Hong Kong's political ecology.
One year has passed, how to evaluate and look forward to this political action?
Liu Zhaojia, vice president of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Association, said in an exclusive interview with "Hong Kong 01" that the "National Security Law" has directly rewritten Hong Kong's political landscape and agenda, and indirectly enhanced the political courage of the SAR government, and let it go against opposition forces.
However, he predicted that after the enactment of the National Security Law, the "construction project" of Hong Kong society is far from complete. It is expected that at least the next two years, the main theme will be political clean-up operations, covering justice, society, culture, ideology, education, media, etc. There is still a lot of work to be done, "Do you think everything will be fine if you just deal with the opposition?"
National Security Law First Anniversary Series 3
Enhancing the courage of the SAR government to exhaust existing laws to eliminate opposition forces
Liu Zhaojia pointed out that the National Security Law made up for the biggest loophole in the practice of "One Country, Two Systems". When the late CCP leader Deng Xiaoping put forward the concept of "One Country, Two Systems", he clearly stated that Hong Kong should shoulder the responsibility of safeguarding national security and must not let Hong Kong become a threat to state power. The base of the socialist system, but based on trust in Hong Kong, the responsibility for national security legislation has been written into Article 23 of the Basic Law, and the local government will enact laws on its own.
However, in the 23 years since the reunification, Hong Kong has repeatedly exploded in chaos, which has become a long-term national security loophole. Some people deliberately oppose China and obstruct the administration of the SAR government.
Specifically, Liu Zhaojia believes that the "National Security Law" has two obvious effects: one is to directly rewrite Hong Kong's political map through the legal framework.
He pointed out that after the establishment of the National Security Law and the improvement of the electoral system, anti-Chinese elements no longer have room for survival within the system, cannot participate in elections or other SAR governance structures, and anti-Chinese and anti-Communist public opinion mobilization cannot be launched. There are figures with faces and faces that have been cleaned up."
(Photo by Ou Jiale)
Liu Zhaojia pointed out that under this environment, the relationship between the executive and the legislature is expected to be improved, and the governance structure is dominated by a greater force called the "patriots." The SAR government can change the situation of fighting alone in the past and make something more conducive to "one country, two systems." Reforms to develop and improve the governance effectiveness of the SAR; and as Hong Kong integrates into the overall national development situation and is tied to the economic destiny of the Mainland, it will also speed up the "return of the hearts of the people", making Hong Kong people no longer willing to challenge the authority of the central government.
The political agenda in the future will be that the patriotic camp will continue to expand, and cooperation and conflicts between them will need to be coordinated by the central government.
The second is to enhance the courage and courage of the SAR government and activate some existing laws.
He pointed out that in the past period of time, those who have been deliberately lucky have used various means to combat the authority of the SAR government. The enactment of the "National Security Law" has become a strong political and legal backing for the SAR government, enabling it to do more. Exhausting the powers conferred by the law, some of the opposition forces that were fostered by the British government before the reunification were defeated, and either gradually declined or transformed.
Even if these actions do not directly refer to the National Security Act, they are indirectly driven by the National Security Act, such as changing the Liberal Studies subject to the "Civil and Social Development Section", sending Li Baiquan to airborne and severely rectifying Radio Hong Kong, and banning June 4th for two consecutive years. Rally and so on.
▼Some of the defendants and observers in the 47-person primary election of the democratic party appeared in court on May 31▼
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"The ideal is to not even use the National Security Law."
Liu Zhaojia believes that the construction of the "National Security Law" is not simply the implementation of a law, but more importantly, the construction of a "discourse system" that is conducive to the development of "one country, two systems", the relationship between the central government and the SAR, and the relationship between young people and the nation and the Communist Party. It is the shaping of ideology.
He pointed out that these discourse systems have been dominated by the opposition for a long time, but from an overall long-term perspective, "one country, two systems" must be implemented for a long time, and profound changes must be made to the outlook of Hong Kong society.
He expects that this political cleanup is far from reaching its end. Anti-Communist forces inside and outside Hong Kong will still exist. For at least the next two years, the main axis of Hong Kong's political environment will still be cleaned up: "To build a set of favorable governance In the system, there are still a lot of work to be done beyond the political level, including justice, society, culture, ideology, education, and the media. A lot of work has not been done or just started. Do you think that everything will be fine if you just deal with the opposition?"
Liu Zhaojia said that there is a huge amount of work to be done to build patriotic power. "It may even be underestimated for two years. This is a long-term job."
The most ideal situation is that there is no need to dispatch the National Security Law, and Hong Kong people know how to maintain national security by themselves.
From another perspective, when the "National Security Law" is often used, it also means that the "National Security Law" does not have enough authority, because many people are still challenging it.
Liu Zhaojia
He also pointed out that the political landscape around the world is changing drastically: "Hong Kong's political identity will change, and its relationship with the Mainland and the Central Government will change. Some things that were accustomed to the past may not necessarily mean that they can be done in the future. In a narrow sense, provoking the CCP. The things that undermine the CCP’s status in the hearts of Hong Kong people are obvious examples. It has not changed for 50 years, and it has never been said that "it will not change." The only things that have not changed are some basic policies."
Liu Zhaojia.
(Photo by Ou Jiale)
Spreading doubts about the "National Security Law" is "soft confrontation"
In the new era of national security, some things that can be done in the past may not be able to be done in the future. Democrats have questioned from time to time that the "red line" is ubiquitous and elusive. They believe that this situation is sufficient to create a "chilling effect" in Hong Kong, describing Hong Kong as " The era of white horror is coming."
Liu Zhaojia pointed out that in order to comprehensively reform Hong Kong society, there will be a chilling effect in the short term, because the National Security Law is a new thing for Hong Kong, and no one has been formally convicted yet. Only after the final judicial process is completed can we know where the red line is.
However, he pointed out that from the current point of view, the "National Security Law" is only aimed at more obvious challenges to the central government and the CCP, with the intention of attacking the state power and colluding with foreign forces. If it is purely a normal criticism of national policies, governance methods, and mainland affairs, it may not be necessary. What's the problem.
"I won't say that any criticism of the central government will lead to legal sanctions. Look at the June Fourth Movement. Although there can be no gatherings, individuals, organizations, and the media still try their best to evoke memories of June Fourth and dissatisfaction with the CCP, right? People go to ban. At best, I can’t say the slogan "End the one-party dictatorship."
Liu Zhaojia also criticized that some people used the enforcement actions of the National Security Law to incite worries and panic among members of the public. In fact, they are also "curving to challenge the authority of the National Security Law": "Whether they really feel fearful, I am not sure. But but In fact, it is weakening the image of the regime and law in the minds of Hong Kong people, facilitating contempt for authority, and creating a subjective will that is conducive to the survival of the opposition. This is "soft confrontation", which is what Luo Huining (Director of the Liaison Office) said. "
Luo Huining, director of the Liaison Office of the Central Committee, mentioned in this year's "National Security Education Day for All" that anything that undermines national security is "hard confrontation," and it will be cracked down in accordance with the law; if it is "soft confrontation," it will be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations.
(Information Picture/Photo by Li Zetong)
Refers to the improper statement of "creating new enemies", "weak governments will use this trick."
Under the current political environment in Hong Kong, the original opposition is close to being wiped out, and civil society is also facing unprecedented difficulties.
The author has interviewed a number of democrats, centrists, and moderate establishments, and many of them have expressed one concern: the establishment camp has a strong atmosphere of "preferring the left and not the right." When the common enemy is lost, it is necessary to keep the political struggle machine operating (keep the machine running), will continue to provoke contradictions and create "new enemies".
Liu Zhaojia believes that this statement is excessive worry. Today, Hong Kong faces many policy reform needs. It is inevitable that vested interest groups will be touched in the process. Instead, the SAR and the central government need to strive for more support, so why bother at this time.
"Mao Zedong also said that? Make more friends and reduce enemies. When promoting reform, of course, we need more supporters, strengthen the social and political foundation, and draw people who are hostile to support the government. This is the kingly way."
He also pointed out: "Continuously create new enemies and shift the focus of internal conflicts. This trick will only be used when the government is weak. Look at (former U.S. President) Trump will make a big fuss about China when popularity is low. . But today the Hong Kong government has regained its strength, is it still necessary to use this trick?"
Refers to the central government's low expectations for the existing opposition to participate in the election
Liu Zhaojia has mentioned many times in the past that in the process of administering the SAR, there is a need for "loyal opposition" to exist.
He analyzed that the "loyal opposition" in the central ideals is to follow the central government's steps on political issues and operate within the constitutional framework composed of the existing national Constitution, the Basic Law, and the National Security Law. The basic code of conduct is It does not violate national security, does not collude with external forces, and does not paralyze the operation of the special zone.
After complying with the above regulations, you can act as an enlightened faction in the system, supervise and even participate in the governance of the SAR government in the future, and promote reforms within the system.
However, since the Democrats’ 35+ primaries, most of the representatives of the Democrats have been arrested and charged; "He Lifei" veterans, including He Junren, Yang Sen, and others, have also been sentenced to jail for participating in an unapproved assembly; election system changes Later, the threshold for election to the Legislative Council was greatly increased.
There are opinions among the democrats that tough law enforcement actions reflect that Beijing has been determined to deal with the democrats, and the electoral system has also abandoned them.
Under this circumstance, why is it still expected that democrats will continue to stand for election?
Liu Zhaojia said bluntly that the opposition in the public eye does have very little chance of transformation, and they are not optimistic about their chances of sending people for election, but this is also within the expectations of the central government: "The central government has not said that it must rely on the current opposition. Political parties, there is not enough time for them to transform, and (the central government) does not think they will. Now politics is still so antagonistic, and opposition supporters may not necessarily accept party transformation."
He believes that the more important source of "loyal opposition" lies in those who have not so much political burdens and who have not yet invested too much in political movements. He hopes that under the new political landscape, these newcomers are willing to participate in practical work and play the role of monitoring and balancing the government. Even in the long run, they participate in governance and become the opposition among the patriotic forces.
"There must be people who refuse to vote for the "loyal opposition", but there must be another group of people willing to support it. It depends on how many new talents appear and are willing to act as the "loyal opposition". Relying on the old faces may not be useful. "
▼On May 27, 2021, the Legislative Council passed the "Improvement of the Electoral System (Comprehensive Amendment) Bill 2021"▼
There is no team that can completely replace the functions of the Central Strategy Group
Liu Zhaojia is currently the Emeritus Chair Professor of the Department of Sociology at CUHK. He is good at studying Hong Kong's political development and social patterns. He served as the chief adviser of the Central Policy Group for 10 years when Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang were chief executives.
The current government reorganized the Central Policy Group into the "Policy Innovation and Coordination Office." Zhang Zhigang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a former member of the Executive Council, mentioned to "Hong Kong 01" earlier that one of the biggest mistakes of the current government is to change the central policy. The group abandoned it without using it, and despised it as a social “pulse-taking” function. As a result, a serious political disturbance occurred in June 2019. It believed that the China Strategic Group would not only need to reset, but also allocate additional resources and “significant upgrades” of functions to further collect and Analyze public opinion on the Internet and "explore heat" for the society.
Liu Zhaojia believes that the resettlement of the Central Policy Team is not the most important thing. The focus is on the rapid changes in local and international politics. There is always a need for a team to think about issues from a long-term, macro, and strategic level to help the chief executive control the government and Hong Kong society and strengthen the central government’s policy towards Hong Kong. The executive power, the role of liaison between the central government and the SAR government, the formulation of the general direction of governance, and the assistance of the government to grasp the political situation at different levels, but it seems that there is no team that can fully perform this role. "What team should be established, really It doesn't matter. It is the most important to cooperate with the government to perform those important functions."
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