Scientists see calculation errors in climate policy

When 2030 million cars are electric, will the expansion of green electricity keep pace - or will the electricity mix become dirtier again?

Scientists are writing a fire letter to the EU.

Munich / Karlsruhe - Has politics fundamentally miscalculated when it comes to the contribution made by the electric car to the climate?

Unfortunately yes, says a group of six European scientists in an open letter to the EU Commission.

In a position paper, 170 scientists from all over the world had previously criticized that the CO2 saving effects mentioned by the EU through the switch to e-mobility were not realistic in the given period.

"The figures suggest a potential for savings that we don't have," said Professor Thomas Koch from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) of the German Press Agency.

Because the electricity mix was simply wrongly calculated.

“The question is not: electric car or combustion engine.

The question is: fossil or not, ”said Koch.

In an open letter to the EU Commission, reported by “Stuttgarter Zeitung” and “Stuttgarter Nachrichten” (Monday), Koch and five other scientists expressed their concerns.

Because the EU is currently in the process of tightening its CO2 requirements for newly registered cars in Europe.

With 453,000 electric and plug-in vehicles sold in the first quarter, Europe is hot on the heels of China with 489,000 electric cars. And by country, Germany is already the second largest e-car market in the world, with almost 250,000 newly registered electric cars by the end of May. VW is now one of the drivers of development. Volkswagen plans to sell only a third of its cars with gasoline or diesel engines by 2030. Mercedes-Benz and BMW are aiming for a share of around 50 percent.

But the corporations do not want to set a fixed date for the end of the combustion engine.

The markets and the wishes of customers are too different, and the political requirements too different.

Then there is the charging infrastructure, which is lacking in many countries, including Europe.

And because it is ultimately about climate protection, it is even more important where the electricity for the e-cars actually comes from.

Will there even be enough green electricity in 2030?

With electricity from coal or oil, he doesn't see much point in switching to electric drives, said VW boss Herbert Diess at the Bilanz-Pk.

"A modern diesel is more climate-friendly than an electric vehicle that is charged with electricity from coal," said BMW boss Oliver Zipse of the "Passauer Neue Presse / Donaukurier" (Monday).

He is "very worried" whether there will be enough green electricity.

In its specifications, the EU Commission assumes that electricity will become cleaner with the expansion of wind and solar systems.

No, say Koch and his colleagues.

Because the demand for electricity will rise even more - and then the whole bill will no longer be correct.

The federal government not only wants 10 million electric cars on the road by 2030, but also wants to quickly convert industry and heating.

The electricity demand in Germany will increase from 56 to 57 gigawatts by 2030, says Koch.

In 6000 of the 8760 hours a year, more electricity from fossil-fuel power plants will be needed in addition to green electricity.

But politicians overlooked this in their debates and calculations, in any case not counting it.

Then the real CO2 emissions could be much higher than the politicians estimate - in total even twice as high.

The scientists all agree that the climate must be protected and CO2 emissions must be reduced, emphasized Koch.

“We also need the e-car for this.” But the specifications also favored the e-car where it is of no use to the climate.

If green electricity were not supplemented with gas, oil and coal electricity, but with nuclear power, the bill would look better.

But that was a political decision by the Germans, said Koch.

If today's combustion engines were to use synthetic fuel produced in a CO2-neutral manner instead of gasoline and diesel, 25 percent of CO2 could be saved.

But here, too, politics and industry took a different path today.

In the interests of the climate, the EU Commission should reconsider its position before taking the next step, according to the scientists' appeal.

dpa