Eduardo Paladini
07/02/2021 9:32 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 07/02/2021 9:34 AM
If a sector of the Government believes that the advancement of the vaccination plan will be enough to guarantee a good electoral result, there is someone who is telling
Cristina
and
Máximo Kirchner
that this hypothesis is probably wrong.
Some of this transpires from the latest survey by
Analogías
, the consulting firm that
measures for the Instituto Patria
and warns about the
limited scope of the health plan in the midst of a strong economic crisis
.
The survey carried out by
Clarín
this Friday included a survey of
2,963 cases
throughout the country.
The results, broken down in a
40-page report
, are presented with a margin of error of +/- 2%.
From the start, it details the
objective of the study
: "Between June 26 and 28, we carried out a study of national scope with the objective of gathering political opinions, the Government's evaluation, perceptions about the health situation, economic expectations and other issues of the political, social and economic conjuncture ".
With the vaccine it is not enough
In the preliminary summary of conclusions,
Analogías
assesses the massiveness that the vaccination plan was taking, but makes clear the limited impact on the economy.
It is a discourse that
is heard louder and louder in hard Kirchnerism
, based in the province of Buenos Aires: less than three months before the PASO, more money must be poured into consumption.
The consultant, who officially worked for the former president's campaign in 2017 and has since been linked to Christianity, explains it this way:
- "The impressive acceleration of the vaccination operation during June is still not enough to order the temporary prospects for the recovery of habits and activities prior to the pandemic."
One of the Aerolineas planes that brought a dose of Sputnik V.
- "As we pointed out in the May monitor, the deployment of the vaccination operation is an element that operates as a necessary condition (very important) but does not complete the requirements of society when evaluating what kind of 'normality' can be achieved in a peremptory term ".
- "In the midst of winter seasonality and with epidemiological surveillance on alert to avoid the entry of new strains that complicate the control of the pandemic in Argentina, the economic recovery agenda and health normalization already form a single conglomerate of demands , biunivocally related ".
- "On very depressed bases due to the pandemic, and after a 4.5% drop in the product in the last two years of the Macri government, a marked heterogeneity is noted by activity sector".
- "This heterogeneity in terms of recovery, with very severe cases such as 'Hotels and Restaurants', puts limits on society's prospects for recovery".
- "In this sense, 60% of those surveyed said that in order to recover economic activity and real income it is necessary to normalize the health situation".
- "In this rigorous context, the Frente de Todos maintains its base of support around 45 national points, during the quarter that passed."
National Survey of Analogies.
How the political affinity of the respondents evolved.
The ruling party is on one floor, but 45 points.
National Survey of Analogies.
It shows how the image of the President was falling.
It is interesting to analyze this last point of the report.
Because although the floor attributed to the followers of the ruling party is high (45%), it is the lowest in the series: it
fell two points in the last month and more than 20 compared to the peak of May 2020
.
Something similar happens with the image of Alberto Fernández
.
Although
Analogías
is one of the few consulting firms that still maintains it with more positive than negative evaluation, it coincides with the other pollsters in the sharp drop in these figures: from the peak of + 93.8% and - 4.8% recorded in March 2020, now places it at + 50.9% and - 47.2%.
The impact of restrictions and inflation
The study then returns with results that confirm that the majority believe that
the easing of restrictions depends on the economy returning to its
normal
rhythm
(which was already low).
And it places "inflation" and "unemployment" as the main concerns of Argentines.
Then, as health and economic data creep in, the report shows three strong numbers:
- "Regarding the allocation of main responsibility in terms of price increases, almost 54% believed that it is 'the Government' and another 37% that they are 'large businessmen'".
- "50% thought that this year the real value of wages will fall and almost 27% that it will remain."
National Survey of Analogies: only 8.4% believe that the inflationary guideline of the budget will be met, below 30%.
- More than half of those surveyed believe that inflation will be above 40%, when the annual guideline set in the budget is 29%. Only 8.4% trust that it will be fulfilled.
At the end, the survey
winks at Máximo Kirchner's project to lower the price of gas in cold areas
(67.7% said they "agree" with the initiative) and asks about an eventual employment plan for young people: An idea that Kirchnerism wants to transmit to the President?
