The rebound of the French economy stronger than expected in the second quarter

The Banque de France on Wednesday revised significantly upwards its growth forecast for the French economy in the second quarter, to around + 1%, against + 0.5% previously, estimating that the lifting of health restrictions had allowed a rebound of activity more important than anticipated.

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Even if it notes an increase in supply and recruitment difficulties for companies, the central bank has maintained its growth forecast for the whole of 2021 at 5.75%, deeming the French economy rather resilient in the face of a possible fourth wave of the epidemic. The European Commission on Wednesday raised its growth forecast for France to 6% for 2021, like INSEE last week. The French government remains on a forecast of 5% at this stage. "

", underlined Olivier Garnier, the managing director of the French central bank, while presenting to the press the last monthly economic survey of the institution.

“

”explains the survey.

In June, activity would thus be 2% below its pre-crisis level, against 3% previously forecast, and -4% in May.

In details

In market services, the rebound is very clear, thanks to the easing of health restrictions.

In catering, the level of activity rose from 25% of its pre-crisis level in May, to nearly 70% in June, and in accommodation it increased by 20 points to 53%.

The situation is more contrasted in industry, with sectors that are still struggling, such as aeronautics and automotive, which are operating at three quarters of their normal level. Production was penalized in particular by the supply pressures which continued to increase in June, and which are accompanied by increases in the price of raw materials. In industry, 47% of managers say they have experienced difficulties, against 44% in May, and the situation is even more critical in construction, where they are 60% to report problems, after 50% in May.

The automotive sector is the most penalized, with 80% of the companies concerned, according to the survey. Another difficulty facing companies is recruitment: 44% consider that they have difficulties in recruiting, especially in construction and services, and in particular in the labor sector.