Full order books, booming production - business for Germany's exporters is currently going well.
The global economic recovery spurred on.
But concerns are growing because of delivery bottlenecks.
Wiesbaden - Thanks to the global economic recovery, the German export industry is working its way out of the Corona low - albeit at a slower pace recently.
In view of supply bottlenecks and raw material shortages, economists and industrial representatives warn of setbacks in foreign trade.
"After turbulent months of the pandemic, the recovery of German foreign trade is stabilizing," said the President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA), Anton F. Börner, on Thursday. However, this development is on shaky ground. “We are very concerned about the current chaos in freight traffic, the immensely increased prices for containers and raw material shortages. Nevertheless, we are convinced that the market will level off again in the medium to long term. "
In May 2021, according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, German manufacturers delivered goods “Made in Germany” worth 109.4 billion euros abroad.
According to the Wiesbaden authority on Thursday, that was 36.4 percent more than in the weak month of the previous year.
At that time, foreign trade had collapsed as a result of border closings and restrictions to combat the first wave of the corona pandemic.
From April to May 2021, exports rose by 0.3 percent.
Analysts had expected a more significant increase of 0.6 percent on average.
In the first five months of the current year combined, exports are, according to the Federal Office, with a volume of 554.1 billion euros, 15.3 percent higher than in the same period of the previous year.
The corona crisis tore deep holes in the German export balance last year.
For the current year, the foreign trade association BGA expects a clear plus, even if a shortage of materials and scarce raw materials have been a burden on business recently.
In its latest forecast, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) is assuming an increase in exports of goods by 8.5 percent in real terms.
"The mood in the German export industry is encouragingly good," said BDI Managing Director Joachim Lang on Thursday.
"There is, however, the risk that persistent transport bottlenecks, especially in maritime shipping, will slow down foreign trade's catching-up."
The German export economy is currently benefiting like no other from the ongoing recovery in China and other Asian countries. But after 13 months in a row with rising export figures in a month-on-month comparison, VP Bank's chief economist, Thomas Gitzel, is also warning against high spirits. It is only a matter of time before the shortage of materials also affects exports. “With the exception of March, industrial production was in the red this year. If less is produced, less is exported, ”says Gitzel in a nutshell.
The German electrical industry, however, reported a strong increase in orders and rising production on Thursday. According to the industry association ZVEI, orders in May were 49.1 percent above the level of the same month last year and also increased by a good 7 percent compared to May of the pre-crisis year 2019. In terms of production, the domestic electrical industry recorded a real increase of 22.5 percent in May 2021 compared to the same month of the previous year. However, the value is still 5 percent below the level of May 2019, which, however, also had more working days.
According to the Federal Office, imports to Germany in May were at 97.1 billion euros, 32.6 percent above the level of the same month last year. From April to May 2021, imports increased by 3.4 percent. For the first five months, imports totaled 474.3 billion euros. That is an increase of 13.2 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. dpa
