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After the failure of the regional, the polls in question

2021-07-10T01:45:01.500Z


ANALYSIS - The historic abstention from the regional elections has thwarted the calculations of the institutes. A few months before the presidential election, public opinion specialists are wondering about their methods.


The numbers are falling one after the other and they are not good.

On his phone screen, this June 20, 2021, Brice Teinturier sees the estimates of the first round of the regional elections scroll.

Its institute, Ipsos, placed the RN in the lead in 6 of the 13 regions of France, ten days earlier.

Marine Le Pen's party ultimately only succeeds in one, in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (Paca).

Favorite during the campaign, he becomes

"one of the big losers"

of the poll, announces the pollster on France 2.

To discover

  • Regional elections 2021: discover all the results

The specialists of the "opinion" would they have lost their compass, a few months before the presidential election?

The disruption is repeated a week later, on the evening of the second round.

In Paca, the outgoing president (LR) Renaud Muselier is fifteen points ahead of his Lepéniste competitor, Thierry Mariani.

Far from the tight gap of 2 points posted a few days before the second round, in an investigation for

Le Figaro

and LCI.

The failure is severe.

"The same goes for opinion polls as for reality TV"

In the archives of polling institutes,

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Source: lefigaro

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