07/09/2021 21:00
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 07/09/2021 21:01
"If you look to the future, tell him not to come"
(Juan Jose Castelli, the speaker of the May Revolution).
The fantasy of turning Argentina upside down like a goblet increases as we get closer to the date of the elections.
Is that so?
Can things really change?
To quote Carlos Melconian, it is most likely that we continue to live in Berretalandia.
But we go by parts: the result of the election can be seen according to the reading of expectations made by the market or, to count beans, by analyzing the future composition of Congress.
In the Senate, the ruling party puts fifteen seats at stake and could retain the majority although their
golden dream of two-thirds
would slip through their hands.
They will not be able to appoint judges of the Court without needing the votes of the opposition.
It is worth remembering that today they have 41 members, which allows you to reach a quorum of thirty-seven.
In Deputies, the Frente de Todos is not too excited:
"There is no chance that we will have our own quorum
,
"
a very high government source that participates in the "Monday Table" that we advanced several weeks ago
tells
Clarín
.
Nothing changes. The block can even be made smaller
.
It is that in the Lower House, the Government is
ten seats away from having the 129 seats that would turn Congress into a clerk's office
.
They renew 51 seats and to reach the quorum they would have to repeat the election of 2019. Nobody believes that it is possible, at that time Axel, the Golden Boy, had reaped 52% in the province.
The Schiaretti of life
are always at hand
,
sometimes yes and sometimes no, but thinking about 2023 these alliances become less possible given the
rebirth of the “Peronist with good manners” dream
.
Together for Change puts more meat on the grill: it has sixty seats at stake (remember the electoral record of macrismo in 2017).
"We are going to have a mix between 2017 (Cristina's worst moment, with 37% in the Province) and 2019 (when she was over 50% of the votes),"
adds another source close to Alberto.
This week, the Monday Table met in Olivos without the homeowner.
Cafierito borrowed the barbecue from Alberto
and they had a “two-hour long barbecue”.
The diners were the usual ones: Máximo, Axel, Massa, Wado, “Kato”, Insaurralde and Espinoza.
They talked about the vaccination campaign: according to independent surveys in the Province, 70% of the public is satisfied with the progress.
In the Government they wonder what Florencio Randazzo is going to do in the next elections, Photo: Martín Bonetto
The Mesa believes that
the second dose is a minor problem
that will be paid for.
The “economic plan” of the Board is simple: a bonus for retirees, social assistance, increased spending and advancement of the minimum living and mobile salary.
"What do you know about Flaco?"
asked one of the attendees.
He was asking about Randazzo's future.
On the lists little and nothing;
Cristina will close them in two weeks.
In the Province the formula is
a woman, a minister and a mayor, in random order
.
In Together for Change, Martín Lousteau works on an internal document with diagnoses and guidelines;
the idea is that it serves as a campaign input.
It is a “conceptual framework with condiments of self-criticism”.
All the economists consulted by this newspaper agree that the Government will not devalue before the elections.
At most, they say, they could make a "small correction" between December and January, but everything will be the same for the next two years.
A former Minister of Economy near Larreta
Rodríguez Larreta talks with businessmen and economists in reserve and with the constant presence of Hernán Lacunza.
They believe that this is not the time to make an economic plan.
"The two years that Alberto has left are going to be a continuation of this economic agony,"
says a collaborator of the Buenos Aires Head of Government.
The neurologist Facundo Manes, candidate of the UCR in the Province.
Photo: Lucia Merle
The self-acclaimed Facundo Manes also has his team: Marina Dal Poggetto, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Gabriel Delgado and Federico Villela.
Randazzo, close to Lavagna, is the one who is most encouraged: he raises a labor reform project.
The Fund is a separate problem.
Martín Guzmán spent Tuesday morning playing paddle tennis with Gastón Gaudio at Vilas Racket, and on Wednesday he traveled to Genoa to meet with G20 finance ministers and Fund technicians.
Argentina owes the IMF 50,000 million dollars, with maturities that begin next September and reach 2024.
The primaries are on my birthday: September 12, and for now the Government lets it transpire that it would pay the 4,000 million quota.
In 2022 it has to pay 18,000 million, plus the Paris Club bicycle for 1,770 million.
In 2023, 19,000 million will expire and in 2024, 5,000.
In parallel, Guzmán negotiates an "alternative" with three countries: Russia, Mexico and Portugal.
I would try to lend Argentina what they will receive from Special Drawing Rights. In the case of Russia,
our new best friend Putin
, the pluralist, is expected to lend the country 18,000 million at 18 years (I would play at 18) .
Although Alberto does not govern almost anything, I would not want to be in his chair.
Look also
María Eugenia Vidal is launched this Saturday as a candidate in the City and will be accompanied by Martín Tetaz
Cristina Kirchner's message with a request for unity for Independence Day
