Eduardo Paladini
07/11/2021 10:24
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 07/11/2021 10:28
When Mauricio Macri's administration began to receive signs of exhaustion from public opinion, at the beginning of 2018, the Cambiemos strategists quickly identified the group they had to reconquer in order to think about a second term. They were the voters who, to beat Daniel Scioli, had just cast their vote in the second round of 2015. Not very original, close to the former president they called him "the disenchanted." Today, when the year and a half of government barely passed, in the Frente de Todos they present the same symptoms, no longer to think about a victorious 2023 but to survive 2021.
Alberto Fernández suffers from his own "disenchanted."
: people who, without defining themselves as Kirchner, accompanied him with enthusiasm to defeat Macri in 2019, but who could now make the leap.
How many?
According to a new survey carried out by
Clarín
this Sunday, they
are around 20%
.
Their power of damage, of course, will depend on where they flee with the vote.
The study that updates the data on this phenomenon is by
Taquion
, a consulting firm already inserted in the world of politics and that weeks ago surprised with a Buenos Aires poll that gave Florencio Randazzo two digits of voting intention and put Together for the Change to the front.
Now, the firm released its latest national study, of
2,503 cases
, surveyed between June 20 and 25.
The results are published with a +/- 2% margin of error.
At the beginning of the report, which also included a work on social networks, a summary is made where it is warned of a
new polarization and the risk for the ruling party
due to the complex current situation.
It says it like this:
María Eugenia Vidal was launched this Saturday as a Buenos Aires candidate.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta accompanied her.
Photo: JxC Press.
"Names are beginning to appear for the different candidates in the political spaces. For the red circle, the pandemic is leaving its primary place so that little by little people can talk about the legislative elections, in which a scenario of polarization is expected due to the increase from the crack since April of last year. "
"The majority considers the vote more a right than an obligation because 83% of Argentines would go to vote even if the vote was not mandatory. And here it begins to analyze what will be the castling of votes to those presented in 2019 according to to this new socioeconomic configuration. 55.7% would vote again for the same person they elected in the last elections. "
"Will that captive vote prevail in political spaces or will citizens address an exodus of votes towards other options? How much will the economy influence, either by decisions of the National Government and the scourge of the Covid-19 pandemic? of a new option outside the crack continues to exist and increasingly stronger; will the offer be forceful to capitalize on this? ".
"Although hope for the future of the country has been growing in recent months (mainly associated with the expectation of openness due to the end of the pandemic), the outlook is still complicated. Concern about opportunities for personal and professional development grew 10 points with regard to the last monitor. This entails a serious problem looking to the future. And this percentage of those concerned not only includes the opposition universe: also those who voted for the Frente de Todos in the last elections. "
How much they retain (and lose) each
Taquion
addresses the electoral chapter on the end of the poll to analyze how many votes each space can retain (and lose).
Especially the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio, which accounted for almost 90% of the total in the presidential elections (the Fernándezes beat Macri-Pichetto 48% to 40%).
First, the firm headed by
Sergio Doval
asked: "Thinking about the last presidential elections, today
, would you vote again for the same person you voted for the last time?
"
Four answer options were given: "Absolutely", "It may be", "No" and "I have not defined it".
The numbers were relatively even between Fernández and Macri.
And from a less important place, curiously the most regretful are the voters of Roberto Lavagna.
National survey of Taquion.
Analyze the retention of the vote compared to 2019.
- For Fernández, 54% would vote "absolutely" again, 13.2% "may be", 22.4% "no" and 10.4% "I have not defined it".
- Macri combined 48.2% "absolutely", 20.3% "it may be", 18.5% "no" and 13% "I have not defined it".
- While Lavagna added only 15.7% of "absolutely" and 23.5% "may be", against 38.3% "no" and 22.6% "I have not defined".
National survey of Taquion.
Analyze the retention of the vote compared to 2019.
And the second question is even more interesting, thinking about the STEP of September 12 and the general elections of November 14:
"Would you vote again for the same political force / electoral space or front that you voted last time?"
.
There
the rejection / alert for the ruling party is greater
.
It reaches 18.2% against 11.2% of Juntos por el Cambio.
And 16.9% of voters from the Frente de Todos are in doubt ("I have not defined it").
That is, for now, and always according to Taquion's numbers, it would only be retaining six out of 10 votes in 2019, which would give it
a floor of 28%
.
On the side of
JxC, it would be retaining more than eight out of 10
, since it has few undecided (0.9%), which would give
a floor above 30 at the national level
.