The question of how much electricity is needed for more electric cars, for example, is central to the energy transition.
The Minister of Economic Affairs is now presenting a forecast that could have major consequences.
Berlin - Germany needs more electricity - for millions of electric cars, heat pumps or “green” hydrogen.
In 2030, electricity consumption is likely to be 10 to 15 percent higher.
This emerges from a new forecast that Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) presented on Tuesday.
This has very concrete effects for the citizens: Altmaier also believes that more new wind turbines and solar systems as well as additional electricity highways are necessary.
However, such projects have often been controversial on site.
In mid-June, Altmaier announced that it would recalculate electricity consumption in 2030.
Industry associations had long predicted that much more electricity would be needed in 2030 than previously assumed.
So far, the federal government has assumed electricity consumption of 580 terawatt hours in 2030.
The new calculation was also necessary due to higher climate targets at EU level and in Germany, according to Altmaier.
The Prognos institute commissioned by the ministry has now come to an initial result.
According to this, electricity consumption will be between 645 and 665 terawatt hours in 2030.
Among other things, 14 million electric cars, 6 million heat pumps and 30 terawatt hours of electricity for “green” hydrogen - for use in the steel industry, for example, are assumed.
Associations assume an even greater demand for electricity, the Federal Association of Energy and Water Management BDEW around 700 terawatt hours in 2030.
Whatever number the federal government will agree on, the whole thing will have a major impact.
“In the future, our energy supply will essentially be based on two energy sources: electricity from renewable energies and hydrogen, which is generated from renewable electricity,” said Altmaier.
Because Germany is phasing out nuclear power by the end of 2022 and gradually phasing out coal by 2038 at the latest - where will the electricity come from?
The expansion targets for wind power and solar energy would have to be increased, said Altmaier - how exactly, he did not say.
1500 new wind turbines per year?
Simone Peter, President of the Federal Association for Renewable Energy, demanded that a new federal government's first 100-day program should switch on the renewables turbo at the latest.
The BDEW considers around 1500 new wind turbines on land to be necessary every year until 2030.
Long planning and approval procedures and many lawsuits, especially for reasons of species protection, are slowing down the expansion.
The conflict between wind power and species protection is unresolved.
Altmaier said it was about protecting species, not protecting “individual individuals”.
The energy industry sees the fact that there is not enough designated space as a further obstacle. Altmaier now wants to coordinate specific area targets for each federal state. But these are likely to be difficult talks that will have to be conducted above all by a new federal government. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, a 1000-meter distance rule from wind turbines to residential areas has just been adopted by the Union Chancellor candidate and NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet (CDU).
From Altmaier's point of view, more power consumption also means: more cables.
Thousands of new kilometers already have to be built in order to transport the wind power mainly produced in the north to the south.
There are delays in expanding the network due to lengthy procedures.
Altmaier believes that in addition to the three new electricity highways that have already been planned, “if not two” additional large electricity routes are necessary.
Planning and approval procedures would have to be shortened significantly.
Goal: eight years from planning to implementation.
More electric cars as a challenge
"In order for more energy to get from A to B, the expansion and conversion of the electricity and gas networks is of central importance," said Ingbert Liebing, head of the Association of Municipal Companies.
"The next few years will be decisive because the number of electric cars and heat pumps will grow very quickly and exponentially."
This should not be at the expense of network stability and security of supply.
Altmaier emphasized that so far the network capacities had kept pace with the development of consumption.
His new electricity prognosis was described as overdue in many reactions.
Greens and leftists complained that the Union in particular had slowed down the expansion of wind power.
SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, who recently accused the Minister of Economic Affairs of “lying about electricity”, said that the expansion targets for renewable energies must now be massively increased.
Altmaier did not want to let go of the "electricity lie": a forecast commissioned by the SPD-led environment ministry showed a lower consumption than a study commissioned by the economics ministry.
On the other hand, Environment State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth said: “We have been saying for a year that the previous assumptions made by the Ministry of Economic Affairs can no longer be maintained.
This knowledge is now finally taking hold - earlier would have been better. ”Dpa
