Hardliners would never accept an agreement signed by a moderate - but will comply if one of them does.
Iran President Ebrahim Raisi stands for another sharp shift to the right - but could be an opportunity for the nuclear deal.
Because: If a hardliner signs the agreement, the critics will conform.
The fortunes of the conservatives are tied to securing a nuclear deal.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published on June 23, 2021 by the magazine "Foreign Policy".
With the election of Ebrahim Raisi as President of Iran, the transition to conservative hardliners in all major political institutions in the country is completed. Raisi clearly won the election last week, but his victory followed blatant manipulation by the Council of Guardians, who had expelled all significant moderate and reform-minded candidates. Public anger and apathy then led to a record-breaking low turnout.
The brazen seizure of power shocked the Iranians, who expressed their displeasure by not voting and protesting.
By and large, Iranians see the outcome as a worrying threat to civil and political rights and a setback to economic and social reform.
A president whose career was marked by overseeing the execution of thousands of political prisoners in the late 1980s is viewed with disdain by many.
New Iran President Ebrahim Raisi: Sharp shift to the right - but chance for nuclear deal?
For the West, however, Iran's sharp shift to the right is not necessarily bad when it comes to what it wants most from Iran: a nuclear deal that would effectively restrict Tehran's nuclear program. Indeed, it could make the deal more likely that the Biden government has evaded since it took office. There are historical parallels to consider where the opponents of commitments were those who made important diplomatic breakthroughs. A nuclear deal with Iran * is unlikely to be comparable to US President Richard Nixon's visit to China or the Camp David negotiations by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, but the same counter-intuitive logic could apply.
While in 2013 the election of a moderate president was crucial to seal the nuclear deal with the US, a conservative hardliner now appears to be necessary for a new deal. The Biden government understood early on that it would be counterproductive to link the nuclear negotiations with the Iranian presidential elections. By ignoring the presidential election as a deadline and opting for a longer process that would extend into the summer, the government made it easier for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to promote progress in Vienna.
It should be remembered that Khamenei approved the 2015 nuclear deal and supported Iranian compliance.
However, when the then US President Donald Trump * withdrew from the agreement, Khamenei also distanced himself from it and advocated a gradual withdrawal of Iran from compliance with the conditions until Washington would return to the agreement.
He declared that the United States could not be trusted and categorically rejected the idea of a new agreement.
Nuclear deal with Iran: Raisi already indicated readiness during the election campaign
However, he distinguished himself from the hardliners in the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution or in Parliament, who demanded that Iran should abandon the nuclear agreement entirely and even abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. His position was more in the middle.
He sharply criticized the United States * but continued to say that Iran would abide by the agreement the country signed. He paved a narrow path for new talks with the United States and made the negotiations publicly secure by silencing the most vocal critics. He did not endorse the Vienna talks directly, but expressed himself skeptical of the results in order to appease the right wing, but then gave a clear signal that the talks would continue. In a speech he stated: “Those who are responsible for the land [i.e. H. President Hassan Rouhani's team], have the best interests of the country in mind. We pray for them and we will help them. "
The hardliners had to swallow their resistance.
In line with the Supreme Leader, all of the Conservative candidates - including Raisi - didn't mince their words during the election campaign and criticized the way Rouhani negotiated the 2015 deal.
However, none of them said they would terminate the agreement.
Raisi stressed that economic sanctions against Iran must be lifted and said that he should not be told that he was against the nuclear deal.
Instead, he told voters that he was ready to accept an agreement.
He did not have to pay a political price to negotiate the agreement, but will reap its economic benefits.
Iranian people and economy are under pressure: difficult decision for Supreme Leader
All of this is part of the Supreme Leader's battle plan. The Vienna talks have now reached a critical point. At the technical level, there is general agreement on how Iran will return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and what sanctions the US government will lift in return.
The United States, however, has not agreed to Iran's demand for guarantees that the agreement will not be overturned again by a future US president. Another Trump withdrawal from the deal poses a costly risk to Iran and could be due in early 2025. Washington is also demanding that Iran formally agree to follow-up talks on further restrictions on its nuclear program, as well as regional issues and its missile program, which Iran has so far refused.
The Supreme Leader is faced with a difficult decision.
It is up to him to give the green light for an agreement in Vienna.
Iranian society and the country's economy are under great pressure.
The population wants a solution and he doesn't want to look as if he is rejecting a workable agreement.
If a moderate president were in office, he would not be in favor of an agreement with the associated compromises.
If hardliners Iran signs nuclear deals, critics will conform
A moderate, and even a moderately conservative, president would be at a disadvantage in dealing with hardline reactions, and Khamenei would certainly not want his decisions to be interpreted in support of the moderates. He disapproves of the image of him and a moderate president who are facing a hardline opposition together. Now, with Raisi as president, the hardliners will have to embrace the difficult decision and defend and implement it - and if an agreement is signed, the critics will conform.
Although hardliners routinely described the 2015 nuclear deal as a disaster and insidious betrayal of Iran's national interests by pro-Western moderates, those same fiery voices treated Raisi's election as a happy twist of fortune. Raisi has the full support of the Supreme Leader and stands for the defense of all values and institutions that are dear to the hardliners. He is her candidate, and his base is interested in his success. Raisi and the hardliners are bound by trust and mutual interest, which will allow him to get their approval on an agreement.
A first sign of this is that less than a week after his election, Raisi formed a committee to ensure that any new agreement in Vienna is in line with the 2015 nuclear deal, which would pave the way for the new agreement to be compatible to be accepted with the agreement that the Supreme Leader had already approved. The committee includes some of the biggest hardliners in parliament, in particular one of the most visible and vocal critics of the nuclear deal, Mojtaba Zolnour, as well as the Iranian chief negotiator in Vienna, Abbas Araghchi, and it is chaired by former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who took part in the 2015 nuclear negotiations Team was.
And there is yet another, more important change in leadership in sight.
The most recent election was overshadowed by the emerging successor to the 82-year-old Supreme Leader: Khamenei wants all levers of power in Iran to be firmly in conservative hands when the time comes.
This has now been achieved with the choice of Raisi.
Successor to 82-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei: Iran-US Agreement for Stability
Khamenei is well aware that Raisi and the Conservatives must be successful in office and that the country should be socially and politically stable for the succession to succeed. These conditions can only be achieved if there is an agreement between the United States and Iran. The transition to a new Supreme Leader could be chaotic and unpredictable if it comes at a time when Iran is under severe economic pressure and the country faces a possible war with the United States. An agreement between the USA and Iran is necessary for a smooth succession.
Raisi will also see an advantage in this. Among the presidents elected in the first ballot, he was elected with the lowest number of votes in years. The turnout of around 49 percent is also the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. Although Raisi received 72 percent of the votes cast, his claim of a landslide victory sounds hollow and does not give him the legitimacy in the eyes of the Iranians. His constructed choice disregards the country's republican principles and represents a step backwards in relation to the few democratic practices that the population is used to.
For Raisi, the presidency could be a stepping stone to one day becoming Supreme Leader.
Winning the presidency gave him a boost, but the contest to succeed Khamenei has only just begun and there will be more contenders.
Raisi is touted as the obvious choice, but whether it stays that way will depend on how he fares as president.
Iran's new President Raisi: Conservative fortunes tied to securing a nuclear deal
He will have to make up for his legitimacy deficit and gain public support beyond his narrow base, and he will have to build a reputation as an experienced statesman capable of running the country. In the eyes of Iranians, this can be measured most directly in terms of a flourishing economy and a noticeable improvement in their daily lives. During the presidential campaign, Raisi pledged to curb corruption, reduce inflation and unemployment, and help small businesses. However, his talk about stimulating the economy implied an imminent surge in trade and oil revenues - in other words, a successful conclusion to the Vienna talks.
It is true that Iran's conservatives are inherently hostile to the United States, preaching resistance and self-reliance, and closer ties with Russia and China. Raisi made no secret of the fact that this was his mantra. But behind the facade of ideological stubbornness, a new realism is taking hold, which is accompanied by complete victory. Unlike earlier times when the Conservatives torpedoed rapprochement with the West to paralyze their moderate opponents, they must now seek stability in their relations with the rest of the world if they are to successfully consolidate their power. To do this, they must first deal with the United States.
The West has often viewed the Iranian elections as a potential lynchpin, a hopeful moment when the Iranian people could lead reform advocates to turn the tide on the hardliners among the guards of the Islamic Republic. There was no such moment in this recent presidential election. Rather, its importance lies in ending this regular contest for power. As a result, the fortunes of the Conservatives are now tied to securing a nuclear deal, which is Washington's primary objective with Iran.
This contradicts the common assumptions about Iran in the west.
Since the presidency of Mohammad Khatami in 1997, the West has assumed that opening up with Iran is only possible if moderates and reformists come to power.
Recognizing that Raisi's election turns this maxim on its head, the Biden government should take this opportunity - not to push for a grand opening with Iran, but to achieve a long-lasting nuclear deal and reduce regional tensions, so that the United States can shift its focus to the conflict with China.
by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr
is Majid Khadduri Professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs in the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
He served at the US State Department from 2009 to 2011 and is the author of The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat.
Twitter: @vali_nasr
This article was first published in English on June 23, 2021 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, a translation is now also available to
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