China is expected to announce a slowdown in second-quarter growth on Thursday, as domestic consumption is slow to recover from the epidemic and supply chain disruptions.
A group of 12 experts interviewed by AFP expects on average an increase of 7.7% over one year in the gross domestic product (GDP) of the world's second-largest economy, over the period April-June.
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Although questionable, China's official GDP figure is still under scrutiny given the country's weight in the global economy. This growth rate would sign the second best quarterly performance for the Asian giant since 2013. In the first quarter, China recorded a strong rebound in its GDP (+ 18.3% over one year), inflated by the low basis for comparison with early 2020, when activity was paralyzed by the Covid-19 epidemic.
Now almost free of the disease, the country was the first to regain a level of pre-pandemic activity by the end of 2020.
But certain sectors, in particular services, are slow to recover and remain "
considerably penalized
", underlines in a note the CICC investment bank.
Services, of which tourism and the hotel and catering industry are part, represent more than 50% of the country's activity.
In particular: the appearance in the spring of an outbreak of Covid-19 in Guangdong (south of the country), a very populated province where many factories are located.
Brakes still numerous
The deterioration of sanitary conditions in this region, which is the source of a quarter of Chinese exports, has also weighed on the production and shipment of goods abroad. The port of Yantian (south) thus stopped loading new containers for export for six days in the spring, and it takes weeks to return to normal. Consequences: Companies are facing "
growing supply problems
", exacerbated by the disruptions in the world linked to the epidemic, notes analyst Christina Zhu, of the rating agency Moody's.
A situation that has led to a worldwide surge in the price of raw materials, especially oil.
This "
weighs on manufacturers and threatens the growth of the country,
" warns Christina Zhu.
China's exports, however, experienced a surprise rebound in June (+ 32.2% year-on-year), the Customs Administration announced on Tuesday.
This is their fastest pace in three months when most economists on the contrary expected a slowdown.
The decline in China's GDP in the second quarter is also to be blamed on Beijing, which "
slowed down the granting of loans to businesses and households to limit indebtedness,
" said the analyst from Commerzbank, Hao Zhou.
In a context of slowing of the recovery, the Chinese central bank announced on Friday a cut in the reserve requirement rate for banks.
This measure allows them to lend more to businesses and ultimately to support the economy.
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The decision, effective from July 15, should make it possible to inject 1,000 billion yuan (130 billion euros) into the economy in the long term. Experts interviewed by AFP predict this year growth in China of 8.4%, an estimate identical to that of the International Monetary Fund.