Stepping into July, the current government is entering the last year of the countdown. The political and business circles are most concerned about who the next chief executive will be? After all, Hong Kong is at a historical moment of chaos, and who is in charge of the overall situation in Hong Kong, and It affects the huge interests of all social strata, and any disturbance is also attracting attention.
Sha Banshan disclosed earlier that due to the extra care in this selection, the units stationed in Hong Kong and the Mainland-to-Hong Kong system continue to submit candidate reports to Beijing’s high-level officials, and the Central Office is planning to be responsible for the final screening and re-inspection, and then to the Politburo Standing Committee. After submitting a report, the finalized "Blessing Candidates" will be notified to all party and state fathers in order to unify their thinking. It is estimated that in late August or early September, who will be settled will be finalized in order to cope with the election of the Election Committee...
However, the latest news has flowed out. The central government tends to wait for the Politburo meeting at the end of the year before making a decision to wish the next chief executive "the real son." In other words, the trump card of Beijing's top leaders will not be revealed too soon. It's a long-distance race, and there are still about half a year for each team to "race" for the crown.
One person running for the election without competitors can be elected with a high number of votes
According to sources, under normal circumstances, the Central Committee will approve the candidate for the next Hong Kong Chief Executive at the Politburo meeting in December, as an internal formal decision-making process, and then the outside world will know the true son of the next Chief Executive.
And this year, the central government has no incentive to "leak secret secrets" early. The main reason is that 90% of the chief executive election in March next year will adopt the "Macau model." The overall situation is overwhelming, and there is no need to finalize candidates at this time.
The so-called "Macau model" means that only one person can participate in the election, and one person can be nominated enough to "enter the gate," and there will be no contenders.
Therefore, there is no need to determine who is the real man too soon.
From the perspective of ordinary citizens, the "Macau model" lacks competitiveness and lacks fierce election drama. It may not be happy to see it. However, from the perspective of Beijing, the advantage is that the next chief executive will be elected with a super high number of votes, and the establishment of the camp will be less divided. save trouble.
In the past, Beijing could not completely control the election committee, so the "gene mutation" incident in which Liang Zhenying smashed Tang Yingnian midway, and the "uncontrolled" scene of Zeng Junhua insisting on single-handedly singled out Carrie Lam, now happened after Hong Kong's electoral system was revised. It is stipulated that candidates must obtain 15 nominations from each of the five sectors of the Election Committee at the same time, while the third (basic, labor and religious sectors), the fourth (legislative council members, representatives of regional organizations, etc.) and the fifth sector (the People’s Congress) The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a national group (Hong Kong member) are firmly in the hands of Beijing. If they have not received Beijing's blessings, who can "hard-break" in?
The establishment faction hopes to know the true fate of the emperor Jingguan frankly who is unknown who will die
Sha Banshan checked the information. That year, Liang Zhenying suddenly announced that he would give up his bid for re-election. The date was the afternoon of December 9, 2016. By coincidence, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing that morning.
According to a report from Xinhua News Agency that day, in addition to analyzing and researching the economic work in 2017, reviewing and approving the "Opinions on Strengthening National Security Work" and other public content, the meeting also "studied other matters."
Of course, if Beijing is willing to retire Liang Zhenying, it will not notify him on December 9. The most likely thing is to inform him in a very private manner a few days before the official approval of the Politburo meeting, and ask him to make an announcement of his non-competition. Preparation for re-election.
Before that, even Leung Chun-ying himself did not know that Hong Kong would change its chief executive, let alone other political and business leaders.
Some institutional members recalled that two weeks before Liang announced that he would not compete for re-election, he still received "ventilation" from the Hong Kong and Macao work system units, saying that Liang was re-elected without any suspense. Who knows that the top level in Beijing only revealed his trump card at the last minute. It makes people fall to the ground and the glasses are broken.
Perhaps in view of this, many people in the establishment camp want to be informed as soon as possible of the next generation's true emperor, so as not to make a wrong bet or cause unnecessary speculation.
I heard that a member of the CPPCC National Committee of the Hong Kong District took advantage of his trip to Beijing to participate in the celebration of the centenary of the founding of the party. He asked a Beijing official who holds the power of Hong Kong and Macao, hoping for "tips." Who knows that this Beijing official confessed that he didn't know.
It can be seen that the next true emperor may not be unveiled until the end of the year.
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Treasurer Chen Maobo's exposure rate rises, consumer coupons become chief executive "admission ticket"?
If this is the case, this "evaluation of the leader" game will last for a long time, especially if Beijing is not in a hurry to finalize the candidates. The "selection period" for the chief executive will naturally be lengthened. As long as the dust is not settled in one day, Those with aspirations from all walks of life will still "run" desperately, trying their best to express themselves, hoping to win Beijing's favor.
The current Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor does not need to say anything. If he does not admit defeat, his character will naturally "forge ahead" until the last moment. The October policy address became the last continuation of his life. As the third person in the Hong Kong government, the Financial Secretary Chen Maobo does not care. Whether he is intentional or unintentional, Beijing will put him on the list of consideration.
Coincidentally, with Liang Zhenying's lack of exposure, Chen Maobo has been quite exposed recently, taking a tram in the area, posting articles about party celebrations, and showing up in Nanshan Village to encourage classmates to "get up." He is quite active.
The latest results of the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Project show that Chen Maobo's score has risen by 8 points from the beginning of last month, which is the highest since February 2018. The net support rate has increased by 19 percentage points and returned to a positive number.
I still remember that after the announcement of the "Send Ten Thousand Money" budget last year, Chen's Minwang rebounded by 16.8 points the next day, proving that the sugar distribution tactics are still useful. Will the consumer vouchers with the same meaning of distributing money become the chief executive of the people's hope. The "admission ticket" is worthy of attention.
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After counting the hot spots one by one, are the senior police officers who have been bullish in recent months another group of dark horses?
Sha Banshan listened to all directions, and there was a lot of careful analysis, thinking that the police officer had only gained power for the time being, and he had not yet ascended to heaven.
Think about it, everyone. In addition to the three important elections (the Election Committee, the Legislative Council, and the Chief Executive) in the coming year, there will be a huge drama, which will be the July 1 return celebration next year, which will be the 25th anniversary of the return of Hong Kong. According to the past The custom "every five" must be carried out, the central leaders must visit Hong Kong "every five", not to mention the 25th anniversary of foreigners also pay special attention to it, regarded as the Jubilee (Jubilee).
More importantly, after the return of Hong Kong, "50 years of unchanged" is a solemn promise that no one in the world knows about. Therefore, the commemoration of next year’s return will objectively have the historical significance of inheriting the past. It is both a review of the 25th anniversary of the “first half” and also Facing the critical moment of the second half 25 years seriously.
Therefore, in the coming year, Beijing will re-use policing and fierce people to ensure national security and stability. It is sincere and understandable!
However, it has recently been reported that senior officials of the security disciplinary system violated the gathering restriction order dinner with key members of the domestic housing company. This raises concerns that although the politicians are loyal and willing to execute, they are indeed available at the moment, but the police officers are resolute. It is fierce, and places too much emphasis on the relationship between power, respect and inferiority, or may not be suitable for the leadership of long-term stability. After all, in the history of the Chinese Communist Party, it is impossible to be a military officer at the head coach level. Most of it must be a party committee with a high political consciousness.... .. Some friends joked with Sha Banshan, saying that it would be very easy to make a negative list of candidates for the next chief executive. On the contrary, it would be difficult to sponsor a positive list of candidates.
It seems that the next chief executive is really destined to be the emperor, who will eventually get the job, still making Beijing bother to think about it!
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