López Obrador, during an event in preparation for the Tokyo Olympics.EDGARD GARRIDO / Reuters
There is no mystery in the explicit uncovering by Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, aspiring to the presidency in the summer 2024 elections, despite the almost exact three years that separate us from that day. After repeated allusions by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador over the last few weeks about possible successors, the head of Foreign Relations had no choice. The ranks of the obradorismo had interpreted gestures, cabals and signals and concluded that Claudia Sheinbaum, head of Government of Mexico City, would be the sovereign's favorite at the time, and acted accordingly. In recent days, Sheinbaum's public appearances were celebrated with shouts of "President, President." Ebrard assumed, with good reason, that if this was installed unilaterally in the imaginary of the obradorismo,the battle would be lost before it started and the rest of the six-year term would be a red carpet parade for the mayor. With his official disclosure, assumed with the presidential permission, he tries to convey the message that the matter has not yet been decided. Convincing or not, many of the political players will think twice about burning ships and endorsing blank checks.
What is a mystery, on the other hand, are the reasons that led President López Obrador to speak of candidates three years away, which inevitably anticipates the contest. In general, the incumbent presidents delayed the pre-candidacy period as much as possible, knowing that, from that moment on, a slow but persistent decline of their power began. Once the "living forces" perceive a possible winner, the so-called "loaded", it makes power swing to the war headquarters of the future president, to the detriment of the National Palace. Projects and political assets are saved to ingratiate themselves with who will be the boss in the years to come.Hence the famous slogans sent from the Presidency aimed at delaying that moment and which ended up being unwritten rules of traditional Mexican politics: "He who moves is not in the picture."
Well, now it was López Obrador himself who made them move. Some critics have wanted to see in this "uncovering" a mere strategy to distract public opinion from other problems and scandals of their government, but it is an absurd explanation. The man from Tabasco has never had a hard time pulling off a topic that monopolizes headlines in the media. He was not going to sacrifice that cartridge by having other alternatives to solve that objective, if in fact that was his purpose.
Rather, it seems to me that it is due to a combination of two factors. One, the need to cover his two main letters for the succession, Marcelo Ebrard and Claudia Sheinbaum, even though many point out that it is really only the latter. It is just about the two officials who were questioned in the collapse of Line 12 of the Metro. Faced with the tragedy and being perceived as the two main contenders by the so-called Fourth Transformation, the adverse political actors and media assumed that it was the opportunity to defeat them in advance. Immediately, López Obrador came out in defense of both, particularly Sheinbaum, and among other things revived the issue of possible successors, taking care to top the possible lists with their names. Simultaneously,He released a smoke ball when he mentioned other possible candidates, none of whom are granted any chance in the political groups (Juan Ramón de la Fuente, representative in the UN, Esteban Moctezuma, ambassador to the United States, and Tatiana Clouthier, Minister of Commerce). By putting names on the list of "contenders" in some way the president wanted to avoid that attrition is concentrated in the two destined for the final stretch. With little success; no one has left with the feint.By putting names on the list of "contenders" in some way the president wanted to avoid that attrition is concentrated in the two destined for the final stretch. With little success; no one has left with the feint.By putting names on the list of "contenders" in some way the president wanted to avoid that attrition is concentrated in the two destined for the final stretch. With little success; no one has left with the feint.
However, it was not the tragedy that triggered the president's call. Weeks earlier he had already bragged about his main riders and ridiculed the thin horse by the opposition. The Line 12 thing just intensified these mentions, but it doesn't explain why it broke the unwritten rule of the "presidential chair user's manual."
The underlying explanation is elsewhere. López Obrador is a deeply nationalist social and political fighter, obsessed with history. His insistence on eliminating the residence of Los Pinos through which characters he considers minor passed, and his desire to be identified with the National Palace is due to this need to be linked to the consecrated symbols and to be associated with the Olympus reserved for the great protagonists of history homeland. Heroes like José María Morelos, Benito Juárez, Francisco I. Madero. Hardly a day goes by without the president mentioning one or more of them. His greatest desire, it seems to me, lies in doing the merits in front of the Nation to perceive himself, and be perceived, as one among them.Phrases like "I no longer belong to myself" refer to this transfiguration that makes him one with the presidential inauguration. The very notion of a Fourth Transformation binds him directly to the leaders of the first three, lifting him above the crowd of mediocre secondary leaders who he believes are in between. Which does not seem reprehensible to me at all. Trying to emulate the best, becoming one of them, is not a bad beginning in any profession, especially in one with so many responsibilities like this.Becoming one of them is not a bad beginning in any profession, especially in one with so many responsibilities like this.Becoming one of them is not a bad beginning in any profession, especially in one with so many responsibilities like this.
But there are signs of impatience to be part of the pantheon of heroes. A president who is somehow in a rush to be a former president and become a part of history. But to be part of the story, it needs to happen. The anticipation with which he launches the list of candidates to succeed him is accompanied by other signs of haste. His growing references to the ranch that awaits him, his future as a history writer totally removed from political life as befits a symbol and, above all, his insistence that the fundamentals of regime change have already been done. Not only does it claim that the foundations have been laid, but that for the most part it is now irreversible.He talks about what he has done as if he were in the last section and he only had to tie a couple of earrings to start the retreat. Paradoxically, both for him and for his opponents this will be a long end of the six-year term, which for some reason has started before reaching the middle. @jorgezepedap
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