The EU Commission cannot bring itself to announce clear sales stops for vehicles with internal combustion engines.
Nevertheless, your “Green Deal” has a major impact on car traffic.
Brussels / Hanover / Munich - It's like a combustion engine out through the back door.
Without direct bans, but with climate targets that have been raised to such an extent that the production of classic gasoline and diesel vehicles in Europe will in fact be phased out in the medium term.
In the long run, both are likely to disappear from the streets.
On Wednesday, the EU Commission presented its proposals on how the greenhouse gas emissions of the member states should be reduced by 55 percent by 2030 compared to the 1990 level.
These include a number of things that will significantly change driving and building a car in the next few years.
The new CO2 rules
By 2030, the EU countries should ensure that emissions from new cars and light commercial vehicles decrease by an average of 55 percent compared to today.
For the five years thereafter, the rules will be tightened again considerably: in 2035, the CO2 reduction should reach a full 100 percent by 2021, which will de facto mean "zero emissions" for all newly registered cars.
For the time being, there is no explicit ban on putting more combustion engines on the road at all after a certain date - unlike that which some member states such as Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium are targeting from 2030 or France from 2040.
The charging and filling station network
The EU wants to expand the trade in pollution rights to include the "distribution of fuels for road traffic".
Your states should also be obliged to expand the network of charging stations and hydrogen filling stations on the highways - an electric car must be able to refill at least every 60 kilometers, a fuel cell vehicle every 150 kilometers.
Brussels also wants to reduce the “harmful effects of competition” under various energy taxes.
In Germany, for example, there have long been debates about the so-called diesel privilege, which subsidizes the drive that was once considered particularly climate-friendly.
Consequences for drivers and fuel prices
Since the beginning of the year, the CO2 levy has made fuel more expensive in this country - by around 8 cents per liter for diesel and 7 cents per liter for gasoline.
The implementation of the EU concept could make the operation of combustion cars even more costly - a problem especially for low-wage earners and people in rural areas.
Commission vice Frans Timmermans emphasized that one was planning "support for the most vulnerable households".
Countries are encouraged to put revenues from emissions trading into climate projects.
The cost pressure on small businesses and transport users is to be cushioned, and a “social climate fund” is to promote green mobility.
The CO2 rules only apply to new cars, older cars are grandfathered.
That's what the German auto industry says
The association VDA points out that the 55 percent target requires a very high proportion of electric cars.
By the end of the decade, almost two thirds of all newly registered vehicles would have to have pure electric, hybrid or fuel cell drives.
For Germany it would be as good as 100 percent if the other countries only manage 50 percent.
The status of the German manufacturers
Some have already set more or less fixed goals for phasing out petrol and diesel engines. Audi wants to manufacture the last combustion engines by 2033 at the latest. The parent company VW plans to stop in Europe between 2033 and 2035 - later in the USA, China and especially South America. So far, one invoked market differences that did not allow for a fixed date. Another generation of combustion engines is expected to start in 2026, with biofuel being added regionally as a “bridging technology”. The corporate target for the e-share in 2030 has just been adjusted to 50 percent, and by 2040 almost 100 percent of new vehicles in the most important markets should be emission-free.
At Mercedes-Benz, the fleet should be CO2-neutral by 2039.
CEO Ola Källenius indicated that one could possibly also set more ambitious goals.
Opel only wants to offer e-cars in Europe in 2028, Ford plans exclusively with electric cars from 2030.
BMW has set itself the goal of driving at least half of it purely electrically by 2030.
However, there is no clear date for phasing out combustion engines.
The real decision-makers are the customers, explained CEO Oliver Zipse.
If you say goodbye to the combustion engine too quickly, you will end up on an "entrepreneurial downsizing course".
The distribution of drives today
Even if the number of registrations for electric vehicles has skyrocketed since the increase in e-car subsidies a year ago, combustion engines still dominate on German roads. As of April 1, around 31 million gasoline cars and 15 million diesel cars were registered, plus a million gas-powered cars and classic hybrids without charging facilities. Pure e-cars and plug-in hybrids together are currently scratching the million mark. It will be years before they also dominate the streetscape.
The current average car in Germany is 9.8 years old, with a good 20 million registered in 2010 or earlier.
So there will still be many combustion engines in 2030 and beyond.
E-fuels produced with green electricity could help to reduce CO2 emissions if they completely or partially replace fossil fuels.
Such synthetic fuel is also repeatedly mentioned as an alternative to complete electrification.
The fuel cell could also play a role.
Some manufacturers have not yet written off them - Brussels explicitly includes the expansion of hydrogen filling stations in its climate targets.
The future of jobs
An overall decline is expected for car manufacturers, suppliers and workshops because electric cars are less expensive to build and maintain.
Individual manufacturers such as BMW disagree.
The people of Munich, who do a lot of their own with the e-components, assume that the mobility transition will be job-neutral for them.
A study commissioned by VW assumed a declining number of jobs, albeit to a lesser extent than feared.
In addition, jobs will be created in the software area, for example.
Related sectors such as services or power generation could benefit as well.
The IG Metall urges better qualification and warns: "Politicians cannot limit themselves to the targets, they have to create the prerequisites for target achievement." Dpa