In Beijing
After the post-Covid rebound soaring, the Chinese recovery continues its course on a gentle slope.
The world's second-largest economy grew 7.9% in the second quarter, continuing its "
recovery
", according to figures released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (SNB), against a backdrop of robust industrial recovery, but consumer caution and investors in an international context still weighed down by the pandemic.
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A decline expected after an exceptional performance of 18.3% in the first quarter due to the catching up of the Usine du Monde, one year after the epidemic crisis in Wuhan.
China is showing its resilience, barricaded behind its quarantine great wall, with growth of 12.7% over the first six months of the year, driven by its exports and industrial production.
What to give air to the authorities, while the Central Bank had given a surprise boost to credit last week to support activity, betraying the nervousness of the communist regime, obsessed with social stability.
Many external uncertainties
Between April and June, the Asian giant's GDP grew by 1.3% compared to the first quarter, drawing a moderate recovery driven by its industrial machine, in a context marked by "
many external uncertainties
" pointed out the SNB. While the Chinese have returned to life without a mask for a year, retail sales rose 13.9% in the second quarter, but fell in June to 12.1% from the previous month. Robust industrial production also slowed last month to 8.3% from 8.8 in May.
“
Beijing's strategy is the reverse of Washington's. Biden is trying to revive by demand, while China is banking on its industrial supply,
”judges Zhang Lin, an independent economist in Beijing. While the United States, and Europe laboriously emerge from the health crisis, armed with massive stimulus packages, China continues its recovery step by step, hoping to benefit from the recovery of its major trading partners. But the stigma of Covid still hangs over the domestic horizon, prompting the middle classes to be cautious, against a backdrop of Sino-American geopolitical tensions. "
Output has recovered rapidly, especially by state-owned enterprises, but domestic demand is relatively weak.
Businesses are reluctant to invest, just as local governments are putting the brakes on infrastructure projects.
And the inhabitants are reluctant to spend,
”judge Zhang, an economist at the former Unirule think tank.
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These results should nevertheless allow China to largely meet its objective of 6% growth for the year 2021 announced in March by Prime Minister Li Keqiang, and considered prudent. A target in line with the structural slowdown of the giant, and Beijing's stated desire to reduce its habituation to growth supported by massive public investments, often at a loss, against a background of increasing debt, and aging of the population. The giant is expected to achieve annual growth of around 8% predict economists, up to 8.4% according to the IMF.
But the second half of the year promises to be fraught with pitfalls, marked by rising commodity prices, a global semiconductor shortage, and the persistent threat of new epidemic outbreaks, such as the one that gripped the industrious southern province of Guangdong in recent weeks.
