Appearances for politicians in floods are delicate.
The Chancellor candidates Laschet and Scholz hurry to the disaster area.
In doing so, they have to be careful that this is not interpreted as a calculation.
Altena / Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler - CDU candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet stands in front of a street flooded with mud-gray water.
In the morning he drove to Altena in the Sauerland, in the middle of the flood area.
Residents here would have lost everything overnight, reports the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister, acting almost like a reporter on site.
"It is now important that help comes here quickly," he emphasizes.
His competitor, SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, also wants to get an idea of the disaster area in Rhineland-Palatinate.
The dramatic flood bursts in the middle of their election campaign - and brings back memories.
Because floods have the potential to decide elections - or at least to play a major role.
This has been known at the latest since Gerhard Schröder trudged through the Elbe flood in rubber boots in 2002.
The picture is still present almost 20 years later: over his crisp white shirt he wears a green rain parka, the dark gray suit pants tucked into the calf-high, black boots.
Quite a few say that these rubber boots decided the general election. Because before the flood, the SPD is still seven points behind the Union in surveys. Then the rain comes in the east, the Elbe rises until the enormous masses of water break dams and tear away houses. While his challenger Edmund Stoiber is on vacation in Juist, Schröder presents himself as a determined crisis manager in the flood area. Stoiber thinks that is shabby - in the election Schröder is still literally washed into the Chancellery.
Since then there has been talk in politics of "rubber boot moments" in which you can win or lose everything.
Chancellor Angela Merkel also slipped into her rubber boots when the Elbe floods in 2006.
During the flood of the century in 2013, she went to Passau, guaranteed the affected regions millions in aid, while SPD chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück stayed in Berlin.
Influence on the September election?
Does the flood in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia have a similar potential for "rubber boot moments"? Communication expert and election researcher Frank Brettschneider from the University of Hohenheim does not expect Scholz and Laschet to win many new voters through their appearances. Nobody will see Scholz as “Helmut Schmidt 2.0” overnight. Brettschneider is alluding to the first example of rubber boots policy in the 1960s: During the devastating storm surge in 1962, Schmidt, as the SPD interior senator, called on the Bundeswehr to help, coordinated rescue operations and established his reputation as a doer and crisis manager.
Scholz and Laschet could win less in today's crisis area, "but they could lose voters if they didn't come," says election researcher Brettschneider.
"If they don't go there, it can be interpreted as a failure in a crisis situation."
When appearing in the disaster area, the Chancellor candidates walk a fine line between crisis aid and the accusation of wanting to capitalize on the suffering of the flood victims in the election campaign.
Compassion cannot appear as a calculated means.
Politicians in the executive branch, prime ministers and ministers, for example, have an advantage, says Brettschneider.
"Your visit is credible because you can do something" - organize concrete help and money, for example.
Rulers have an advantage
"Every prime minister who takes his office seriously is with the local people at such a moment, regardless of the election campaign," Laschet emphasizes in the crisis area.
He does not want to use his visit for campaign photos, the situation is too serious for that.
"The most important thing is to help now, and above all to give those who help to give backing." Party political questions should take a back seat.
Scholz also comes in his role as Vice Chancellor, representing Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is currently with US President Joe Biden in Washington.
He emphasizes that the federal government must lend a hand in the disaster area and promises: "I will do everything I can to ensure that the federal government also provides financial aid."
The Chancellor candidate of the Greens, Annalena Baerbock, has a harder time, although she cancels her vacation but has no executive power.
She would be better advised to address issues such as climate change and surface sealing from Berlin, "but not against the backdrop of the floods," says Brettschneider.
When visiting the crisis area, it is important, as a politician, not to stack sandbags in a publicly effective way, but to listen to those affected and the emergency services - and that also in rubber boots.
In Altena, Laschet shows himself at least in the middle of the floods - but whether he is wearing rubber boots or standing dry on a pedestal cannot be seen on the video from "Bild TV".
dpa
