An obligation and an opportunity

A young man receives his first dose of vaccine against covid-19 at a health center in San Salvador (El Salvador) .RODRIGO SURA / EFE

The covid-19 pandemic is not defeated on a global scale.

Worse still, new pandemics are likely to endanger the health of the planet over the next few decades.

The prevention of pandemics is a global public good, as is the mitigation of climate change: the world must act collectively to avoid disasters such as covid-19 in the future.

Funding investment in prevention, preparedness and response to pandemics must be a priority, as justified in a report presented to the G-20 finance ministers that counted on our contribution. Such funding would fill in major gaps in global health security. We take a conservative stance in the report, focusing only on the global public goods financing needs needed to prevent pandemics. We estimate that $ 15 billion annually would be needed to strengthen global pandemic surveillance capabilities, various essential elements of national health systems, and most importantly, the availability of medical tools and measures to respond. Spending on prevention,pandemic preparedness and response provides, without question, the best return on any public investment. For example, the International Monetary Fund estimates that faster vaccination worldwide could save a total of $ 9 trillion in foregone income, at a cost of just over $ 10 billion.

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The pandemic has demonstrated the importance of having an adequate reserve of measures to fight the disease. So far, the global supply of covid-19 vaccines has been insufficient, with billions of people still unvaccinated. Under normal circumstances, the IMF estimates that vaccine production could reach 6 billion doses by the end of 2021, which would allow 45% of the world's population to be vaccinated. If so, many regions would remain vulnerable and the emergence of new variants could not be prevented. In the first months of the pandemic, there was also a shortage of personal protective equipment and other medical supplies. These deficiencies mean more suffering, prolonged restrictions on our social life and considerable losses in global economic activity.

Such a dangerous situation requires bold action on a global scale.

Europe can play a key role and supply the world with vaccines for this and other future pandemics.

European companies have been at the forefront of COVID-19 vaccine development.

The European Union authorities have resisted the temptation to use them mainly for their internal market: about half of the vaccines manufactured in the EU have been exported, in sharp contrast to many other countries that have exclusively prioritized their citizens .

Consequently, the EU can rightly boast that it is a reliable partner for the rest of the world.

And now it must go further, because Europe is interested in vaccinating as many people as possible as soon as possible.

No one will be safe until we all are.

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There are three fundamental steps. First, many countries do not yet have access to a sufficient number of doses. And while the EU has defended multilateral strategies to increase the world stock of vaccines, some initiative like Covax has not lived up to expectations. In June 2021, the G-7 pledged to deliver a billion more doses, but it has also come up short. Rather than wait for a global consensus, our recommendation is that the EU continue to help the developing world obtain these vaccines. Aid may consist of donations or grants or concessional loans to countries for the purchase of vaccines. It could also consist of contributions to the Covax mechanism. It is not just about countries having access to vaccines, but about making them accessible. So,the EU must help poor countries to negotiate with European suppliers to be able to buy them under the same conditions as the countries of the Union.

Second, as our report to the G-20 stated, the world needs to improve the supply capacity of vaccines and medicines when we are not in the midst of a pandemic. With potential losses of $ 500 million a month expected in 2021, accelerating vaccine production during the pandemic will pay off hugely. But building that capacity "in peacetime" requires a certain amount of subsidies. Private companies, alone, do not have sufficient incentives to maintain a higher production capacity than is usually necessary. As the world gradually emerges from the pandemic, the EU must continue to support vaccine supply chains to ensure those capabilities.The European Union has several of the best research centers in the world in this field and should strengthen them by increasing spending on R&D.

Third, having production capacity in different regions would help make the system more flexible and contribute to a more equitable global distribution of scarce reserves.

The Franco-German initiative to boost the manufacture of BioNTech's vaccine in South Africa is a good example of this.

Europe has already made a great economic contribution to the fight against the pandemic.

Now it has to take more immediate action by purchasing and distributing more vaccines.

In addition, the support for the global campaign that we recommend in our report for the G-20 also offers expansion possibilities to an important European industrial sector.

It is a moral obligation and a great opportunity for Europe to intensify its efforts in the fight against pandemics.

Anne Bucher

is a visiting professor at the Bruegel think tank and a former Director-General for Health at the European Commission.

Guntram Wolff

is the director of Bruegel.

Translation by

María Luisa Rodríguez Tapia