How many immigrants would benefit from the reform promoted by the Democrats? It will depend on its economic impact

By Sahil Kapur and Julia Ainsley - NBC News

Democrats are pushing through Congress an ambitious proposal to introduce changes to the immigration system within the broad $ 3.5 trillion economic package announced this week.

Senator Bob Menéndez, lead author of the immigration bill that embodies President Joe Biden's strategy, said Thursday that they are exploring $ 120 billion worth of immigration changes to the budget reconciliation formula, which can be passed without Republican support in the Senate.

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Menéndez explained that Democrats will try to find a way for dreamers, farm workers, essential workers and people with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to obtain permanent residency and US citizenship.

"This is not all that my United States Citizenship bill would cover, but it is a very big advance," he said.

The goal is for immigration reform to include as many issues as possible, he said.

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But Democrats face serious obstacles.

Both its 50 senators and all its legislators in the House of Representatives must jointly and seamlessly support the legislative project for it to become law. 

"How far do we want to go? We want to go as far as we can," said Menéndez.

The reform "has tremendous budgetary effects. It will provide income to the Treasury due to the fees and taxes that people will pay. It will also have some costs," he acknowledged.

Some voices consider that the changes in immigration matters would be merely "incidental" to the budget process and, therefore, could not be approved through this system, the only one that prevents the Republican bloc due to illibusterism (a type of parliamentary obstruction).

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"Reconciliation is conceived as something budgetary and not necessarily as a political issue. So I think they are going to have a lot of difficulty getting into the immigration issue," said Senator Mike Rounds, Republican of South Dakota, who worked with Democrats. in a bipartisan immigration reform bill in 2018.

With Republicans opposing the easing of the immigration system and calling for stricter enforcement of the law at the border, Democrats are left with few alternative avenues. 

The budget bill may be Biden's best chance - if not his only - to deliver on some of his electoral promises on immigration.

If the Democrats fail, they will be able to tell their rank and file that they have tried and blame the parliamentary system.

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Defining which workers are considered "essential" is one of the sticking points, explained a source familiar with the matter.

Democratic senators will instruct the Judiciary Committee to determine how many undocumented immigrants could receive legal status, based on the cost of processing applications and the impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

Two advisers warned that the $ 120 billion amount is not final and could change in the coming days.